Courmayeur semifinals, October 31: Blinkova meets a lefty, Jacquemot meets an old junior rival

Semifinal day in Courmayeur, and the indoor hard court at the foot of the Alps has sorted the draw into two neat pairs of contrasts. Anna Blinkova brings the most experience in the field. Noma Noha Akugue brings the smoothest route to the last four. Later, Elsa Jacquemot, who has spent the whole week climbing out of holes, meets Alina Charaeva, a player still riding a breakthrough autumn.

Both matches have a second layer. One is a left-hander's test of a veteran's patience, and the other revisits a Roland Garros junior final, years later and with real ranking points at stake. These are the two I'll go through:

13:30 — Blinkova — Noha Akugue
15:00 — Jacquemot — Charaeva

Times are UTC.

Blinkova — Noha Akugue

Blinkova's week has mostly been tidy, with one wobble in the middle. She opened 6-3 6-2 against Dalma Galfi and closed the quarterfinal with the same score against Martyna Kubka. In between, Katarina Zavatska took the second set off her, and Blinkova had to find the decider all over again.

To my eye, the most telling thing is what came after that scare. A player who has just been dragged into three sets often carries the tension into the next match. Blinkova did not. The Kubka match was short and calm, and that suggests she regrouped rather than simply survived. What exactly changed in the Zavatska decider, though, nobody has described, so I won't pretend to know.

Noha Akugue has arrived here without dropping a set. Only the opening set against Danka Kovinic, a 7-6 tie-break, really asked questions. After that she beat Linda Klimovicova in straight sets and pulled away from Ayla Aksu 6-4 6-1 once the early exchanges settled. Indoors this season she has been genuinely comfortable, with fourteen wins from twenty matches, while Blinkova's indoor sample this year is small and thin.

There is a gentle irony in her good week. Just before Courmayeur, she lost a singles rubber for TC Rungg in the Italian league, and the club's technical director Manuel Gasbarri admitted: "This defeat has left us a bit at a loss" (Sportnews). Whatever puzzled them that weekend has not followed her into the mountains.

The key is geometry. Noha Akugue is left-handed and plays with attacking intent, which is a different angle from anything Blinkova has seen this week. If Blinkova keeps the ball in play and makes her hit one extra shot, the lefty's margins shrink. If Noha Akugue finds her forward positions early without forcing, the experience gap starts to look smaller than it reads on paper. They have never met.

I lean towards Blinkova, simply because her ability to absorb and redirect pace suits a long contest against an aggressive opponent. But the market prices her as a clear favourite, and I think that overstates it. Noha Akugue has been the steadier player all week and is in form indoors, so +4 games for her looks sensible to me. I expect a tight match that could easily need a decider.

Jacquemot — Charaeva

Jacquemot has lost the first set in all three matches this week and won all three anyway. Caroline Werner, Susan Bandecchi and Elizara Yaneva each had her a set down. Against Yaneva she was one tie-break away from going home, then ran away with the decider 6-1. That is resilience you can see on the scoreboard, even if nobody has written down what turned each match around.

The question I keep coming back to is the cost. Jacquemot came straight from the Wrexham final, which TennisActu called an encouraging rebound after a difficult spell (TennisActu). Since then she has played long matches on consecutive days. Nobody has said she is tired, and I won't say it for her, but every escape is paid for in hours on court. The same outlet links this late push to her hopes of getting into the Australian Open.

Charaeva's week has been less dramatic. She beat Enola Chiesa comfortably, recovered from a 1-6 opening set against Gabriela Knutson, and then handled Marina Bassols Ribera 6-4 6-4. She also had a singles rest day before the quarterfinal. Earlier in October, during her Beijing run, she put her progress this way: "I'm just really happy with my work and how I've managed my emotions and mental part as well" (WTA). She has also mentioned having fewer injury interruptions this year.

The storyline is a lovely one. As Ubitennis recalled, these two met in a Roland Garros junior final, and now the same pairing comes back as a professional semifinal. They have never met on the pro tour. Jacquemot is rebuilding her confidence through difficult matches, while Charaeva is trying to prove that her autumn against elite opposition was no passing weather front.

To my mind, it hinges on the start. If Charaeva takes the first set, she will be facing an opponent who seems to come alive precisely in that situation, and her emotional control will be tested properly. If Jacquemot finally starts fast, the whole match changes, because she will not have to spend energy chasing.

Charaeva looks slightly closer to the win to me, thanks to the fresher legs and the calmer week. I don't expect her to get there quickly, though. Jacquemot's matches here have all gone long, so I think this goes the distance or close to it, and over 21.5 games looks the more natural shape. Still, the match will tell, and Jacquemot has spent the whole week proving forecasts wrong.

Experience, a lefty and a habit of comebacks

The day comes down to two questions for me. Can Blinkova's experience slow down a left-hander playing with real freedom indoors? And how many more comebacks does Jacquemot have left in her legs after Wrexham? I would watch the first few service games of both matches closely, because both semifinals look likely to be decided early, by whoever settles first.

These are my impressions.