Paris Masters, November 5: Alcaraz meets a resilient Berrettini, Musetti and Buse carry their upsets into the third round

The third round in Paris arrives with the indoor courts playing quick and rewarding whoever strikes first. The day is built on one contrast: established names against men carried here by a breakthrough, a comeback or a second chance they did not expect. Carlos Alcaraz closes the evening against Matteo Berrettini. Lorenzo Musetti, fresh from beating Alexander Zverev, meets a home player who has already stretched him once this autumn.

Several matches are scheduled as "followed by" rather than at fixed times, so the start times are estimates. These are the five I want to go through, in order of play:

11:30 — Ben Shelton — Arthur Rinderknech
13:00 — Lorenzo Musetti — Luca Van Assche
14:30 — Nuno Borges — Ignacio Buse
16:00 — Jan-Lennard Struff — Casper Ruud
18:00 — Matteo Berrettini — Carlos Alcaraz

Times are UTC.

Ben Shelton — Arthur Rinderknech

Arthur Rinderknech nearly did not make it to Paris at all. An abdominal injury cut short his Asian swing, and he arrived short of matches, racing the clock to be ready. To my eye, that comeback matters more today than the home crowd does.

His week so far has had two very different moods. Against Francisco Cerundolo he was close to the exit before the crowd pulled him through, and the Argentine then retired with a back problem. Against Mattia Bellucci there was no rescue needed. After an even start he pulled away, attacking with real conviction, 6-4 6-1, and left the court visibly emotional.

Ben Shelton's opener against Cameron Norrie was tidy rather than perfect. He took charge early, and when Norrie clawed back a deficit, Shelton answered at once instead of letting the match drift, winning 6-3 6-4. The FFT preview called the left-hander a particularly awkward assignment on a fast court, and I agree. That lefty serve pulls a right-hander wide on exactly the surface that helps it.

Workload separates them too. Shelton had a day off. Rinderknech played yesterday and has doubles later today, with an abdomen that was injured only weeks ago. Shelton also has an ambitious season on his mind. Announcing that Juan Carlos Ferrero will join Bryan Shelton in his team, he said Ferrero's "experience of winning at the highest level and developing champions will be a huge asset to our team" (Yahoo Sports).

I expect Shelton to win this in two sets. Rinderknech's attacking mood is real, but fresher legs and a sharper first strike should be enough on this court, and the −2.5 games handicap looks like it should hold. The only thing that would change my mind is Rinderknech serving the way he did against Bellucci for two full sets.

Lorenzo Musetti — Luca Van Assche

Musetti came to Paris with the Lyon title in his bag and has only grown since. Against Hubert Hurkacz he picked his way through a match with no rhythm in it and survived a dangerous closing tie-break, 12-10. Afterwards he told ANSA that his confidence had "definitely come back" (ANSA).

Then came Zverev, and the best tennis I have seen from Musetti in some time. He recovered from a big tie-break deficit, took the set, and ran away with the second, 7-6 6-2 against the world No. 1. Zverev did not simply fade. Musetti was quicker to find the openings and braver about using them.

Luca Van Assche is not here by accident either. He beat Mariano Navone, then turned around a recent heavy loss to Learner Tien with disciplined aggression, superb court coverage and a cool head. The last rally was a marathon, and he ended up flat on the court. His indoor season has quietly become excellent, with 14 wins in 17 matches.

They met only recently in Lyon, in a long late-night fight: two tie-break sets, then Musetti through 6-4 in the decider. That explains why Van Assche told the FFT he is "expecting a huge battle tomorrow" (FFT). The key, I think, is court position. If Musetti keeps stepping in, his variety does the damage. If he drifts back and lets the Frenchman extend every rally, it becomes an endurance test.

Musetti is closer to the win, to my eye, but I am not convinced the −3.5 handicap is safe against a man who just made him play three hard sets. I lean towards another long one, with the over on 22.5 games more natural than a quick Musetti exit from the court. The confidence from the Zverev match should still tip it his way.

Nuno Borges — Ignacio Buse

A few days ago Nuno Borges was saying goodbye to Paris. He lost in qualifying after a physical opening set and a hurried trip from Basel, and he admitted that "travel is always tough" and that he had lacked freshness (Raquetc). Then the lucky loser spot opened, and the tired man disappeared.

Borges beat Moise Kouame 6-3 6-1, then handled an out-of-sorts Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-4 in a display the tournament described as close to flawless. He now has a chance at a first Masters quarter-final. A week that started in disappointment has found a second wind.

Ignacio Buse comes off the biggest win of his career, a 6-4 6-4 over Daniil Medvedev. What struck me was how he handled the wobbles. He did not panic after missed chances or after falling behind, and he was at his best at the very end. "I feel really good on these courts and increasingly comfortable indoors," he said (Rolex Paris Masters). His indoor history before this week was thin, which makes that comfort all the more interesting.

Both played yesterday, and both carry a small physical question mark. For Borges it is the travel fatigue from earlier in the week. For Buse it is a doubles withdrawal listed as illness, though it is not clear which of the pair was unwell.

This is the murkiest match of the day for me. The market leans to Borges, and his calm control on Wednesday makes sense of that, but Buse's composure against Medvedev is just as strong evidence. I think it hinges on whether Buse stays patient after such a high, or starts chasing spectacular moments. I expect a tight contest with a fair chance of a decider, and I would not be surprised by either winner.

Jan-Lennard Struff — Casper Ruud

Jan-Lennard Struff, 36, is living an indoor autumn many younger players would envy. Deep runs in Brussels and Basel, a win over Novak Djokovic, then a composed start in Paris against Arthur Gea. The second round was harder. Tirante took the opening tie-break, and Struff needed another tie-break in the decider to escape.

Casper Ruud has looked unlike his usual stereotype. He followed his serve to the net against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, then took the initiative early against Rafael Jodar and found the late break when the second set grew awkward. That 6-3 6-4 also sent Flavio Cobolli to Turin. TV 2 analyst Christer Francke put it simply: "It's a long time since I've seen Ruud play this aggressively" (Radio Haugaland).

The biggest difference is in the legs. Ruud had yesterday off from singles, while Struff comes straight out of a long three-setter at the end of a busy indoor run. I would not frame this as the big server attacking a defender. Ruud's current willingness to move forward takes that script away.

Ruud looks closer to the win to me. He is fresher, he is playing on the front foot, and he only has to keep doing what worked against Jodar. I think −2.5 games on Ruud has a decent chance to hold, and the under on 23.5 makes sense unless Struff's serve drags a set into a tie-break.

Matteo Berrettini — Carlos Alcaraz

Berrettini has been surviving in Paris rather than cruising, and there is a quiet dignity in that. Against Brandon Nakashima he lost his early control after a brief lapse and saved match points in the deciding tie-break, 7-6(8) in the third. Against Ugo Humbert he took the first-set tie-break, built a lead, let Humbert back in, then steadied and closed it 7-5.

That is the mark of a player who has learned how to win ugly again. It also cost him nervous energy over consecutive days. His doubles withdrawal with Flavio Cobolli was listed as illness without naming the player affected, so I treat that as a question mark rather than a fact.

Alcaraz arrives as the Vienna champion, with wins there over Tommy Paul, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur. His wrist rehabilitation is still part of his story. He admitted he had doubted whether the forehand and wrist would ever feel right, but nothing new has been reported in Paris. Against Alex Michelsen he struggled with the speed of the court and trailed in the opening tie-break, then loosened the forehand and won 7-6 6-3.

Paris has been a stubborn tournament for him, with a record here barely above even at six wins and five losses. He sounds determined to change that: "I'm pretty sure sooner or later, I'll do great in this tournament" (Rolex Paris Masters). Berrettini needs clean, heavy exchanges before Alcaraz can bring in his movement and touch. Alcaraz needs to accept the speed of the court without hurrying his own decisions.

I expect Alcaraz to win, most likely in straight sets. Berrettini's serve and his new habit of winning tie-breaks make one tight set very plausible, though, and in that kind of match +4.5 games on the Italian looks decent. If Alcaraz settles faster than he did against Michelsen, it could be over well under the 20.5 total.

Alcaraz's Paris itch, Musetti's momentum and a day of tired legs

The question that runs through the whole day is who is still carrying their best week and who is starting to pay for it. Rinderknech's abdomen, Struff's mileage and Berrettini's nerve-heavy wins all ask it in different ways. Musetti against Van Assche is the match I am most curious about, because both men have earned their confidence honestly.

In the evening, Alcaraz has another chance to make peace with a tournament that has never quite welcomed him. My job here was the stories, and today there are plenty of them.