Andreescu’s 3h24 win over Ruzic ended after a late cramp, missed match points and a break while serving for the match. Resilience counts, but playing again the next evening leaves her recovery an open question.

Stefanini, ranked 106 to Andreescu’s 168, had a day off and beat Tan 6-2, 6-3 with better support from her serve. Her 6-2, 6-3 Samsun semi-final showed aggressive returns against second serves; Blinkova had also beaten Andreescu there.

At 1.76, Stefanini +3.5 is the better fit: a close Andreescu win or a competitive three-setter still covers, while the price seems to lean on Andreescu’s name. Stefanini outright was tempting, but this line leaves room for her opponent’s class.

I pass on 21.5 games: Andreescu’s condition could mean a quick fade or a long grind, and breaks cut both ways. Her clean Ristic win is a warning; Stefanini has the Samsun final and medical check, travel and a three-set opener behind her, and can be unsettled by changes of contact height.

Havlickova’s 6-0, 6-1 win over Lisa Pigato was a forceful display: her serve and first-strike hitting took control. But one sharp night is not her season-long baseline; she has won only about half her hard-court matches, and September included a 4-6, 0-6 loss to Fiona Ferro.

Teichmann brings a tougher test than Pigato. The former world No. 21 reached the French Open fourth round this year, and in Rovereto she has lost only two service games across her matches with Tessa Johanna Brockmann and Lucia Bronzetti. When Bronzetti wiped out her second-set lead, Teichmann found the break again at the finish.

There is a route to disrupting Havlickova’s rhythm: she has said high, looping balls to her backhand make her uncomfortable, and Teichmann’s left-handed angle could test that contact point. Teichmann +2.5 games at 1.82 covers her wins and close Havlickova victories, including most three-set matches; a comfortable straight-sets win for Havlickova is the danger.

I prefer the cushion to Teichmann outright while her fitness after the layoff remains uncertain. The 21.5 games total looks fairly set: a tight straight-sets match could land either side depending on a break. The main risk is Teichmann’s durability in her third match back after the right-leg injury.

The rankings make Salkova look a comfortable favourite, but her 2 wins in 8 before Rovereto give me pause. Against Hruncakova she lost the first set 2-6, faced 14 break points and was out-aced 15-1; the win showed resilience, not command.

Boskovic has looked at home here since qualifying. She beat defending champion Selekhmeteva in straight sets, recovered after losing a late lead with a commanding tie-break, and says she is playing with a free mind; Koevermans’ retirement at 4-1 also left her with a light latest outing.

Boskovic +2.5 games at 1.9 gives room for a close loss as well as an outright win. Her ranking of 334 understates her level—she has been as high as 158—and the cushion looks worth taking against a Salkova still searching for continuity.

I passed on 21.5 games: Salkova’s vulnerable second serve could mean quick sets just as easily as a long three-setter. The clear danger is that the ranking gap proves decisive and Salkova runs away with it.

Rovereto has brought out a settled Martyna Kubka: she was comfortable against Charaeva, then served reliably and faced just one break point against Kostovic. Knutson’s escape against Bandecchi showed real persistence, but she needed her opponent to double-fault on match points; it was survival, not sustained control.

Knutson’s second serve has been vulnerable this week, giving Kubka’s serve-and-forehand game a clear first-strike opportunity. At 1.88, Kubka is the value side: the market appears to lean on Knutson’s longer autumn record and Kubka’s three early losses before Rovereto, while the current conditions have brought a reset.

I prefer the straight win to Kubka +0.5 games, which is essentially the same position at a shorter price. I’ve passed on the 22.5 total: this could be a long contest, but Knutson’s shaky serve could also make for a lopsided set.

The risk is that Kubka’s earlier inconsistency returns if her serve loses its shape. Knutson has just shown she can keep fighting when the match turns against her.

The question is whether Swiatek wins by six games. Li +5.5 at 1.832 appeals after Li’s straight-sets win over Bencic and her recovery from a set and a break down against Sabalenka, who needed treatment in the decider.

Li showed no hangover against Tjen, saving set point with big first serves, including an ace, then taking the tiebreak. She says she feels physically good, and her low backhand slice and pace changes give her a way to disrupt Swiatek’s timing.

Swiatek is improving, but Krueger stretched her service games and broke back before her errors helped Swiatek regain control. The serve remains a concern; Mertens and Zheng also showed how clean serving and initiative can deny her return footholds. The Madrid meeting ended with Swiatek retiring, so it proves little.

Over 19.5 is less useful: 6-4, 6-3 falls short of that total but covers the handicap; the outright price is too long for the same view with less protection. Li’s second serve can be attacked, the Sabalenka match was a heavy workload, and Swiatek can dominate as she did against Jovic.

Kartal’s No. 170 ranking understates her level after a long absence with a pars stress fracture; her career best is 44. Her Wuhan tennis has looked among the best in the draw, and +3.5 games gives that form room to count even if Svitolina wins.

Kartal overturned a big deficit against Kalinina, then dominated Bencic early and found the late break to close a tight second set. Against Paolini, her return repeatedly gave her control of the baseline. Svitolina, meanwhile, has struggled to protect her serve in Wuhan and let match points slip against Samsonova before regaining control.

The Auckland meeting went to a deciding-set tie-break, a useful reminder that this matchup can stay close. At 1.895, the handicap covers a narrow two-set loss or a three-set defeat; Svitolina would need a genuinely dominant display to clear it, and that has not been a reliable feature of her recent matches.

I considered Kartal outright, but the cushion suits the likelier narrow-loss scenario. The 21.5 total offers no clear direction with fragile serves capable of producing either long or short sets. The concern is physical: Kartal faded late against Bouzkova, and Svitolina can grind, though Kartal’s recent Wuhan matches have been short.

Ostapenko’s attacking ceiling is obvious, but the arm concern is hard to price away: against Pegula she needed treatment, returned strapped and said she was in a lot of pain. The next day, she linked her dip against Fernandez to fatigue; she lost that middle set 1-6 and struck seven double faults, after eleven against Pegula.

Shnaider has beaten Boulter, Putintseva and Muchova in straight sets, and against Muchova she steadied after a protracted first set rather than needing another reset. Her left-handed serve gives Ostapenko a different look, while Shnaider’s focus on manageable choices and depth suits a match where Ostapenko may have to hit one more ball.

At 1.8, Shnaider -3.5 is the angle: a straight-set win covers in nearly every scoreline except a pair of very tight sets. The outright price is too short to add much, while 20.5 games is caught between a routine straight-sets win and a three-set match.

The risk is Ostapenko’s shotmaking if her arm holds; she can steal a set, and a narrow three-set Shnaider win would miss the handicap. Beijing also showed Shnaider can lose her rhythm when an opponent changes pace, as Alexandrova did.

Chwalinska’s variety now creates initiative, not just survival. After Bouzkova read her slices and lobs to take the opener 6-1, Chwalinska attacked earlier, winning the next two sets 6-1, 6-1; she then beat Jovic 6-4, 6-1. Mertens fell 6-2, 6-2 in Singapore.

Ranked No. 22 to Sakkari’s No. 35, Chwalinska looks underpriced against a market leaning on Sakkari’s name and power. Sakkari rallied against Vekic and Kostyuk, but Pohankova broke her serving for the match; she admitted lacking bravery on five break points against Svitolina, and Gibson beat her in Singapore.

Chwalinska has beaten Sakkari after a difficult start at Roland Garros, though clay is no hard-court guarantee. At 2.15, this looks essentially even: Chwalinska to win is the value.

The risks are Chwalinska’s fourth straight singles day, doubles workload and faster hard courts; Sakkari had a rest day, though neither has a reported injury. +1.5 adds little protection at a shorter price; 21.5 is unclear, with break-heavy sets or a long three-setter both plausible.

Ostapenko’s Wuhan revival is real, but it may be asking too much of a sore arm. Against Pegula she needed a medical timeout for her right forearm, returned heavily strapped after taking a painkiller, then played doubles the same day; how the arm feels now is unknown.

For a first-strike player with an already erratic serve, that is a material concern. The surge also follows a poor summer and a Beijing loss to Mertens after Ostapenko had led in the decider.

Fernandez’s reset is the other side of this read: she won the Singapore title, recovered from a set down against Chwalinska, then beat Alexandrova in three sets and Han in straight sets in Wuhan. No injury has been reported, though her serve remains vulnerable and has repeatedly put her under pressure.

I like Fernandez -1.5 games at 1.895: it backs her improving form at a better price than the straight win, while allowing for a close match. I left the 21.5 total alone; two vulnerable serves could mean either short sets or a long decider, and Fernandez’s own service issues are the main risk.

Guo has played 5 hours 45 minutes of singles in two days: 2:41 against Cirstea, then 3:04 against Volynets. She returns less than a day later, with doubles also on her schedule.

She came back from 1-6, saved match point, then won another deciding tie-break. That grit is real, but hard to repeat on tired legs while her father is seriously ill in intensive care.

Svitolina’s return unsettled Samsonova despite her own serve wobbling; Guo hit no aces in either match and won only about half her first-serve points against Volynets. Svitolina had a bye, a shorter outing, and has not lost after taking the first set this season.

At 1.822, Under 18.5 is the cleaner expression: 6-3 6-3 or 6-4 6-2 stays under. The -6.5 handicap can lose on those ordinary wins, and Svitolina’s outright price is too short. The danger is her serve: seven double faults, only a third of second-serve points against Samsonova, and match points squandered before a decider.