Andreescu spent 3 hours 24 minutes getting past Ruzic, cramped late and finished with five double faults and a second-serve win rate below 45%. With Stefanini, who last played on October 14, waiting in the quarter-final, recovery is the central question.

Stefanini moved from a fatigued opener against Mair to a more authoritative 6-2, 6-3 win over Tan. Her recent willingness to attack second serves and redirect down the line matters against a player whose service looked vulnerable; the Samsun contrast is telling, too: Stefanini beat Blinkova 6-2, 6-3, while Andreescu lost to her 3-6, 4-6 a day earlier.

At 2.302, Stefanini is worth backing. The market seems to give too much weight to Andreescu’s peak reputation and ability to grind, and too little to the physical cost of this particular turnaround and Stefanini’s unfamiliar two-handed rhythm from both wings.

I would leave totals and handicaps alone: they require a view on match length or margin, while the outright price captures the mismatch. The risk is that Andreescu recovers better than the cramping suggests; she did show resilience against Ruzic, and Stefanini’s improved level is recent rather than established.

Salkova’s win over Hruncakova showed grit, but not control from the start: she lost the first set 2-6 and had to rescue several service games in the decider. Boskovic arrives with a more settled feel for Rovereto, after saying she had played freely and fought for every ball. I’m backing Lea Boskovic to win at 2.302.

The ranking gap—120 to 334—helps explain the price, but it does not capture this week’s evidence. Boskovic’s 6-2, 7-6 win over world No. 100 Selekhmeteva was a stronger statement than Salkova’s comfortable opener against a wildcard; Boskovic has also gone 4-0 at the tournament.

Salkova’s recovery against Hruncakova is real, but it follows patchier form, including a 1-6 set against Sakatsume. If Boskovic brings the same freedom into the opening games, Salkova may not get the time she needed to settle. Rank is a tidy timetable; matches do not always keep to it.

I passed on Salkova -2.5 games at 1.78: her uneven sets make that spread a poor fit. The risk is that she again absorbs the early pressure and finds a way through; Boskovic’s latest match ended with Koevermans retiring, so it did not test her over a full contest.

Kubka has looked more at home on Rovereto’s fast indoor hard court, winning her opener 6-1, 6-2 against a top-100 opponent and then handling Kostovic without a major swing in momentum. Knutson’s escape against Bandecchi was resilient, but it took nearly three hours and came after Bandecchi’s double faults handed back match points.

The wider indoor-hard numbers point the same way: 7-4 for Kubka in 2026, against 4-6 for Knutson. Kubka, 25, has just reached a career-best ranking; Knutson, 29, peaked in late 2023. A three-place ranking gap is thin support for the market’s slight lean toward Knutson when the current conditions and performances favour Kubka.

1.88 is a worthwhile price on that evidence. Knutson’s resilience is real, but the Bandecchi finish relied on errors, while her uninspired Caldas final and 1-6, 2-6 loss to Timofeeva in Porto underline the risk of being overwhelmed when an opponent takes the initiative. Kubka’s own service and closing play have wavered before, so she needs to keep the steadier platform she has shown in Rovereto.

Kartal’s Wuhan run is real, but it needs context: Paolini has had injury disruption, and Bencic was not at her best. Svitolina’s ability to grind rallies and make Kartal create the point gives the world No. 6 a tougher test; I’m taking Svitolina to win.

Kartal is rebuilding after a pars stress fracture, and fatigue showed in the deciding set against Bouzkova. Their Auckland meeting went 6-4, 6-7, 7-6, so Kartal can push her on hard courts—but Svitolina found the edge in the final tie-break.

At 1.49, Svitolina’s ranking advantage, resilience and motivation in the WTA Finals race make the price a touch generous. Kartal is still building match rhythm, and the market may be giving her comeback run a little too much credit.

Kartal’s plus handicap and the games over could suit an Auckland-style contest, but those markets are outside my working set; the over is also harder to trust when her fitness over a long match remains uncertain. The risk is that her assertive Wuhan level carries through while Svitolina again lets a promising position become a close finish.

Ostapenko’s arm is the first concern. Against Pegula she needed a medical timeout, returned with her arm strapped and said she was in significant pain; she took a painkiller to continue. The diagnosis, and whether the problem has cleared, remain unknown.

She then followed the Pegula match with a long singles-and-doubles day against Fernandez, later admitting fatigue after a mid-match dip that included a 1-6 set. Shnaider has won three straight matches without dropping a set, and steadied herself against Muchova after a protracted opening set.

Shnaider to win at 1.42 is the right side: her 2026 hard-court record is stronger, and Ostapenko will face a left-handed serve and angles after meeting only right-handers in Wuhan. The price still looks worth taking given the physical question and Shnaider’s more controlled run.

I considered Ostapenko on a game handicap, but her arm and recovery make that too speculative. The main risk is that her renewed shotmaking survives the workload and she finds a way to disrupt Shnaider’s rhythm.

Wuhan’s key question is whether Sakkari can keep her first-strike tennis tidy when Chwalinska changes the height and pace. The Pole’s slice, topspin, lobs and sudden flat acceleration can turn a clean pattern into an awkward rally.

Sakkari’s late-game issue has recent evidence: Pohankova broke her while she served for the match, and she went 0-for-5 on break points against Svitolina. She has said bravery on key points remains a work in progress; Chwalinska’s disruptive game can keep those points coming.

Ranked 22 to Sakkari’s 35, Chwalinska has shown more than survival: she shifted from passive variety to assertive attack against Bouzkova, then wore down Jovic. Her coach says she can play even better. At 2.15, the win bet on Chwalinska looks worthwhile against a market leaning too heavily on Sakkari’s reputation and season hard-court numbers.

Passing was considered because this is close, not a strong conviction. Sakkari has power and experience, plus an extra rest day; Chwalinska’s busier recent schedule is a real caution.

Ostapenko’s Wuhan level is real, but so is the cost: against Pegula she needed a medical timeout for her right forearm, returned heavily strapped, took a painkiller, then played doubles with Hsieh. With her diagnosis and recovery still unknown, Fernandez to win at 1.734 is my pick.

Fernandez’s Singapore title, with wins over Andreeva and Chwalinska, looks more durable than Ostapenko’s two-match revival after losses to Preston, Maria and Frech and a retirement against Zhang. Fernandez also recovered from a deciding-set opener against Alexandrova and progressed past Shi.

Her left-handed angles, net approaches and ability to reset give her ways to weather an early power surge. Ostapenko’s Pegula win deserves respect, but Pegula was playing her first singles match since the US Open; the market seems to have priced the comeback more readily than the physical cost of producing it.

Fernandez’s serve is the main risk: she hit seven double faults against Shi, and Ostapenko’s return and down-the-line power can punish that if her forearm holds up. That keeps the edge modest; the Wuhan run is a revival, not yet a reliable baseline.

Li’s win over world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka came after she had let match points slip, then finished the job in a deciding tie-break. She says she feels physically fine, and her opening-round workload was only 44 minutes before Osorio retired.

Tjen’s Wuhan surge is real, but her wins came against players ranked 344 and 42. Against top-30 opposition, she lost 2-6, 2-6 to Andreeva and 0-6, 4-6 to Shnaider; Li’s forehand pressure could deny Tjen the initiative she needs.

Seven double faults against Ito and three against Snigur add a practical concern: Tjen may give Li break chances even when rallies are level. Li’s 15-15 hard-court record needs context, with difficult draws including Sabalenka, Svitolina, Noskova and Bencic; her Bencic and Krueger wins in Beijing show what she can do against quality opposition.

Ann Li to win at 1.561 is a little better than fair. The risk is a letdown or fatigue after the Sabalenka finish, while Tjen has finally strung wins together in Wuhan; the market may be giving that possibility too much weight.

Pohankova has made a strong impression in Wuhan, but her nearly three-hour, late-night win over Wang Xiyu leaves little room for a leisurely reset. She said the match finished at an hour when she would normally be asleep; the next test is a substantial rise in class.

The step up matters. Bondar and Wang were valuable wins for the 17-year-old, but Sakkari is a former world No. 3, ranked 35, and has just come through a composed three-set comeback against Marta Kostyuk. She says she feels physically and psychologically sharp, and her serve helped her take control in the decider.

That is enough for me to back Maria Sakkari to win at 1.409. The price gives too much weight to Pohankova’s breakthrough momentum and too little to the recovery burden and the quality of opponent now in front of her. Sakkari’s recent work at this level makes the number better than fair.

Pohankova’s fearlessness and freedom from expectation are real complications, not reasons to dismiss the pick. They could keep this close; the concern is whether she can sustain the upset against a more experienced opponent after that late finish. I have no other working market to recommend.

Guo has played nearly six hours across two straight three-set marathons and is also competing in doubles. Before Wuhan, her 2026 hard-court record at WTA events was 1-6; her comeback wins count, but Cirstea lost control and Volynets had already endured a marathon of her own.

This is a much steeper test: Svitolina is ranked sixth, and her return produced 56 points won against Samsonova. She had a first-round bye, spent 2h11 on court in that match and reset after letting it become complicated. Svitolina to win at 1.076 is still a price I can accept.

Guo’s outright at 8.9 is beyond my odds cap and not supported by the evidence. The risk is that her new belief and the home crowd help her carry that attacking resolve into another match; her father’s illness is serious, but I would not treat it as a performance boost.