Paris Masters, November 2: Jodar and Tabilo again, Humbert comes home

The first round in Paris arrives the way November does: grey outside, warm under the roof, and full of players carrying the weather of their last week indoors. Monday brings a former champion and a former finalist in Karen Khachanov and Denis Shapovalov, a fresh Lyon winner in Lorenzo Musetti against Hubert Hurkacz's serve, and Rafael Jodar meeting Alejandro Tabilo only days after beating him in Basel.

There is also a qualifier with tired legs, Juan Manuel Cerundolo, and a Frenchman, Ugo Humbert, returning home with a back that misbehaved last week. Several of these stories hinge less on tennis than on bodies, and I find that both fascinating and slightly unnerving. These are the five I want to go through:

• 09:00 — Shapovalov — Khachanov
• 10:00 — Musetti — Hurkacz
• 11:30 — Tabilo — Jodar
• 13:00 — Ruud — Cerundolo
• 19:30 — Humbert — Van de Zandschulp

Times are UTC.

Shapovalov — Khachanov

The whole match sits on one question: how much Denis Shapovalov trusts his hip. He retired against Carlos Alcaraz in Tokyo earlier in October, then went to Basel and completed two matches. That shows he is playing again, not that the hip is fully healed.

Basel told a split story. Shapovalov pulled away late against Remy Bertola, 6-4 6-2, but against Taylor Fritz he lost a break late in the first set and another early in the second and never found an answer. He could dictate to a lower-ranked opponent, yet could not shake a steady one. Khachanov is exactly the steady, heavy-hitting type who keeps a shotmaker working.

Khachanov arrives with a loss that reads better than it looks. He led in both sets against Alcaraz in Vienna and went down 4-6 6-7(5), saving match points before he gave in. Before that he lost to Alexander Bublik in two tie-breaks. The pattern is a man who builds good positions and struggles to cash them, which is a frustrating habit but a sign of a decent level.

History favours the Canadian: Shapovalov leads 2-0, including a five-set Wimbledon quarterfinal in 2021 and a three-set Davis Cup rubber indoors in 2019. Those are old memories, though. Shapovalov's indoor hard record last year was strong, which explains why the bookmakers do not let Khachanov drift too far ahead.

I lean slightly towards Khachanov, because he is the healthier and more reliable unit right now. Still, Shapovalov's left-handed aggression and his record in this matchup make a tight match likely, and +1.5 games on him looks reasonable to me. If the hip holds, I expect this to drift past 23.5 games; if it doesn't, the match will tell us early.

Musetti — Hurkacz

Lorenzo Musetti comes to Paris with a title in his pocket and an honest admission in his voice. After Lyon he said: "This has been a season full of difficult moments" (Corriere dello Sport). His Lyon week was not a parade either: a late-night struggle, saved match points, then a clean 6-3 6-4 final against Fritz.

Vienna cooled him down quickly. He fought back against Arthur Fery and still lost the decider, 4-6 7-5 4-6. I read that less as a crisis and more as a man paying for a long week. Indoors this year he has been very good, and his wins over Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Flavio Cobolli show the variety working at full volume.

Hubert Hurkacz has a physical footnote of his own. In Beijing he explained his retirement simply: "I felt pain in my adductor" (Przegląd Sportowy). He has played Shanghai and Basel since, so I treat it as background rather than a live problem. In Basel he started well against Holger Rune, lost the middle, and went down 6-7(7) in the deciding tie-break.

Ubitennis puts the tactical point neatly: Hurkacz's serve can deny Musetti a comfortable way into the rallies. Musetti leads the head-to-head 3-2, and his most recent wins came in Madrid this spring, 6-4 7-6(4) on clay, and indoors in Rotterdam in 2022. Hurkacz's two wins both came on grass at Wimbledon, where his first strike bites hardest.

The prices are almost level, and so is my opinion. I give Musetti a hair more, because his indoor form this season is the brighter of the two, but this is a coin with two heavy sides. What I expect more firmly is length: tie-breaks feel likely against this serve, and the over on 25.5 games makes sense to me.

Tabilo — Jodar

Alejandro Tabilo barely had time to unpack the memory of Basel before getting it delivered again. Last Monday Rafael Jodar beat him 6-4 6-2, and AS noted how visibly unhappy Tabilo looked when the first break went against him. After that, the match drifted away rather than turning into a fight. Tabilo does not need to learn what this matchup feels like; he needs to change something.

The head-to-head explains the mood. Jodar leads 3-1, and the last two meetings, 6-2 6-1 in Cincinnati and the Basel win, were one-sided. Tabilo's lone win, 6-1 6-2 at Indian Wells in March, feels like a different season now. Their Washington semifinal went to three sets, which is the only sign of real resistance from the Chilean since spring.

Jodar, at 20, carries a different kind of weight: his ATP Finals hopes are alive and results elsewhere have tightened the race. His Basel loss to Valentin Vacherot came in two tie-breaks; he created early return chances, fought back after losing the first set and then lost the pressure points. He was in Paris training the next day, which tells me where his head is.

Ruud — Cerundolo

This is a story of a rested man against a man who already knows the floor. Juan Manuel Cerundolo came through qualifying, first beating Aleksandar Kovacevic 7-6(5) 6-3, then surviving Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4 6-7(6) 7-6(6). He lost a tie-break that could have finished the match, regrouped, and won the final-set one. That is real resilience, and it cost real energy on Sunday.

Casper Ruud's last memory is less comfortable. In Basel he took the first set 6-1 from Nuno Borges and then lost the next two. Nothing in the reporting explains why, and I would rather not invent a diagnosis from a scoreline. What I do know is that Ruud was outstanding indoors last year, and the courts under a roof tend to flatter his structured game.

Humbert — Van de Zandschulp

Ugo Humbert comes home under the Paris lights as a former finalist who missed the last edition with a back injury. The back spoke again in Basel: he called a medical timeout against Novak Djokovic and appeared to be struggling with his lower back. He had started that match brilliantly and won the first set, then missed his chances early in the second and lost 6-4 3-6 4-6.

The broader form is gloomy. Before Djokovic he lost to Lehecka, Arthur Gea and Corentin Moutet, the last in a final-set tie-break, so his last win in this run came against Brandon Nakashima. I have the feeling of a player whose tennis is fine in bursts and whose body won't let the bursts link up. A home crowd warms a man, but it does not fix a lower back.

Against him stands an opponent he seems to have solved. Humbert leads 5-0, most recently 6-3 6-4 indoors in Montpellier in February, and four of those five wins came in straight sets. The French federation still warned that Botic Van de Zandschulp troubled strong opponents in Shanghai, where he beat Arthur Fils 7-5 6-4. His recent tennis since has been patchy, with losses to Alex Michelsen and Clement Chidekh.

On tennis and history, I side with Humbert, and the head-to-head is too lopsided to ignore. The back is the cloud I can't see through, so I keep this as an opinion rather than a conviction. If he moves freely in the first few return games, he wins it in straight sets; if he starts guarding his serve, Van de Zandschulp has every reason to drag him into long rallies and long sets.

Jodar's revenge round, Humbert's back and Shapovalov's hip

For me the day comes down to two bodies and one rematch. I want to see whether Shapovalov's hip lets him swing freely, and whether Humbert's back lasts through a long, emotional evening at home. Tabilo against Jodar is the purest tennis question: can a man change a script only days after reading it.

Musetti against Hurkacz is the one I would least like to miss, because variety against a big serve on a fast indoor court rarely gives a dull hour.