Sabalenka’s First Strike Meets Rakhimova’s New York Resolve

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka faces Kamilla Rakhimova in the US Open third round on Friday, September 4, with the match scheduled for 18:00 MSK. Sabalenka is pursuing a third consecutive New York title and protecting the top ranking, while Rakhimova is trying to turn an excellent opening week into a major breakthrough.

Sabalenka is rebuilding control around her power

Sabalenka’s level has risen across her first two rounds. Camila Osorio disrupted her with drop shots, net approaches and changes of pace, but Sabalenka steadied herself when the second set became awkward and closed in straight sets. Against Polina Iatcenko, she took the ball early, crowded the second serve and finished with 24 winners to her opponent’s three.

The difference was discipline rather than additional force. Sabalenka maintained aggressive court position without rushing every finish, and the brief loss of serve in the second set did not disturb her concentration. She has also said that she is moving away from trying to play perfect tennis and feels mentally stronger than she did in the middle of the season.

That adjustment follows an uneven North American swing. Sabalenka returned from a month away by simplifying her baseline game, with the training court effectively stripped back to cross-court patterns before drop shots, angles and serve-and-volley plays were added again. She handled the important points well against Zhang Shuai in Toronto and overwhelmed Wang Xinyu in Cincinnati, but losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Sara Bejlek showed that leads could still make her decision-making less secure rather than more secure.

Bejlek repeatedly absorbed Sabalenka’s first attack and drew errors after Sabalenka had established winning positions. That remains the relevant warning, because Sabalenka’s recent trouble has often arrived after she moves ahead. There are no reported injury concerns, and her short second-round match leaves no meaningful physical fatigue.

Rakhimova has paired resistance with cleaner finishing

Rakhimova has produced her strongest consecutive matches of the summer at this tournament. She stayed composed through a tight opening set against Barbora Krejcikova, controlled the tie-break and won the final five games, although she needed seven match points to complete the upset. The closing game tested her nerve, but she continued to play rather than retreat behind the baseline.

Her second-round win over Oksana Selekhmeteva was more authoritative. The match remained level until 3-3, after which Rakhimova won nine consecutive games and denied Selekhmeteva any chance to reset. Backing up the Krejcikova result with a clean front-running performance gives the run more weight than a single upset.

Her preparation had contained useful spells without the same consistency. Rakhimova beat Venus Williams in Toronto and had taken control against Katerina Siniakova before Siniakova retired, but Jessica Pegula exposed the difficulty she faces when an opponent takes time away and keeps her defending. In Cincinnati, Rakhimova forced Maria Sakkari into a decider after losing the opening set, only for her level to fall sharply in the third.

Rakhimova arrived in New York after two extended qualifying matches in Monterrey, including a narrow final-set tie-break defeat. Her first US Open match demanded more than either of Sabalenka’s outings, but the short second round and equal rest day should limit any fatigue concern. No injury, illness or coaching change has been reported.

The second serve and the pressure games set the terms

Sabalenka’s clearest task is to deny Rakhimova repeatable baseline exchanges. She can step inside the baseline against the second serve, drive pace through the middle and use the first forehand after serve to open the court. No medals are issued for surviving the first forehand, but Rakhimova must do exactly that often enough to make Sabalenka strike another difficult ball.

Rakhimova cannot profitably trade maximum pace with Sabalenka from a static position. Her better route is to maintain depth through the centre, protect her court position and change speed selectively once Sabalenka begins anticipating a fixed rhythm. Osorio showed that occasional drop shots, lobs and forward movement can pull Sabalenka away from her preferred strike zone, while Bejlek showed the value of repeated neutralisation.

The serve routine will matter on both sides. Rakhimova needs enough first serves to create an attackable next ball, because exposed second serves invite Sabalenka to begin the rally from inside the court. Sabalenka, meanwhile, must keep trusting her first strike after a loose service game rather than treating one break as a reason to search for the lines.

Their previous meetings offer encouragement in both directions. Their previous major encounter became a one-way power contest in which Rakhimova never established rhythm, while their earlier hard-court match was much more physical and competitive. The New York hard court rewards Sabalenka’s early ball-striking, but it also gives Rakhimova a relevant precedent for extending rallies if she survives the opening assault.

The central intrigue is how the match behaves after the first lead. Sabalenka has recently allowed commanding positions to become complicated, while Rakhimova needed repeated match points against Krejcikova before finishing. If the sets remain close into the pressure games, second-serve holds, return discipline and emotional control will become as important as Sabalenka’s superior weight of shot.

Neither player has a true home-crowd advantage, although Sabalenka has far greater familiarity with New York’s biggest stages and the expectations attached to a returning champion. Rakhimova carries less external pressure but must still believe in the finish if she creates an unexpected opening. Sabalenka’s task is to keep the contest technical; Rakhimova’s is to make it uncomfortable before the top seed gains scoreboard freedom.