Blockx’s First Strike Meets Cobolli’s Second Wind

Twenty-eighth seed Alexander Blockx meets fifth seed Flavio Cobolli in the third round of the US Open, with their recent Cincinnati contest still fresh in both minds. Blockx has taken the economical route through New York, while Cobolli has advanced through recovery, resistance and a much heavier workload. The central intrigue is whether Blockx can establish control and finish the job before Cobolli turns the match into another long examination.

Blockx has built the lead; now he must own the finish

Blockx opened his campaign with an authoritative win over Marcelo Tomás Barrios Vera. He created early separation, protected his serve when the set threatened to tighten and raised his level again at the start of the third. His service discipline under pressure was more important than the comfortable scoreline.

Marco Trungelliti interrupted that rhythm by taking the third set in round two, but Blockx responded immediately in the fourth. There was no visible physical concern, prolonged frustration or hesitant closing phase. That response confirmed that a lost set does not automatically disturb his structure.

His hard-court game has also moved forward since Montreal, where Jiri Lehecka established first-strike control before Blockx found his range. Blockx then beat Mariano Navone cleanly in Cincinnati and pushed Cobolli deep into a decider. He broke late and served for the match, only for his execution to tighten as Cobolli broke back and seized the closing games.

That ending defines the present question around Blockx. His serve, direct forehand and physical baseline game are strong enough to create winning positions against Cobolli, but the same aggression must survive the pressure games. The scoreboard, in its usual generous fashion, awards nothing for almost serving out the match.

Blockx arrives fresher after two comparatively controlled matches and has reported no injury or movement restriction. His Estoril run showed considerable stamina and emotional persistence, including a recovery against Luciano Darderi from several near-losing positions. The concern is not his willingness to fight; it is whether he keeps a clean serve routine and commits to the first strike when the finish is close.

Cobolli keeps recovering, but the mileage is rising

Cobolli’s recent results have been built on adjustment rather than immediate authority. After describing his Umag and Montreal defeats as two of the worst matches of his career, he reached the Cincinnati semifinals by winning a succession of deciding-set contests. His movement, forehand and defensive resistance improved as those matches became more physical.

The same pattern has followed him to New York. Cobolli came from two sets down against Francisco Comesana in a match lasting more than four hours, then recovered from another lost opening set against Tristan Schoolkate. In both rounds he reduced the errors, became more proactive with the forehand and imposed greater physical pressure once he settled.

Those recoveries show confidence and problem-solving, but they also carry a cost. Cobolli has played five sets and then four, including demanding afternoon conditions, after a deep Cincinnati run and additional mixed-doubles activity during Fan Week. He has reported no injury and said he felt physically strong against Schoolkate, although he also acknowledged being slightly more tired.

Cobolli’s best tennis combines disciplined defence with a forehand that takes ground away from the opponent. He is comfortable absorbing pace, extending points and turning a defensive position into attack. His recent weakness has been the opening phase, where loose service games and errors have repeatedly forced him to repair damage later.

The fifth seed also appears comfortable when a New York match becomes noisy and dramatic. His celebrations and improvisation have connected with the crowd, and he has spoken positively about playing under pressure. The danger is that he has sometimes needed adversity before reaching full intensity, a habit that gives a sharp server too much room.

The first forehand matters, but the pressure games matter more

The recent Cincinnati meeting provides the clearest tactical reference. Blockx stayed level at a high tempo, broke late in the decider and served for the match, but Cobolli made him play under closing pressure and broke twice to complete the reversal. The result established both sides of this matchup: Blockx can impose his tennis, and Cobolli can remain close enough to punish hesitation.

Blockx’s preferred pattern begins with a strong delivery, a manageable return and an aggressive first forehand. He can also finish at the net and use touch when a short ball demands something other than raw pace. On New York’s hard courts, short service games would help him protect his physical advantage and deny Cobolli the long exchanges in which the Italian gathers rhythm.

Cobolli does not need to produce spectacular returns throughout the match. Deep returns through the middle can remove Blockx’s immediate angle and make him strike one extra ball before taking control. Pressure on the second serve will be particularly important because it allows Cobolli to occupy the baseline and bring his running forehand into play.

Blockx must also prevent Cobolli’s service games from becoming routine forehand exercises. Firm return depth can keep Cobolli from running around the backhand too easily, while measured changes of direction can expose space without feeding the Italian’s movement. For Cobolli, the equivalent discipline is to resist overplaying early and trust that neutral depth will eventually create a physical rally.

The decisive moments may look like a closing drill on the practice court: first serve, first forehand, repeat the routine without allowing the score to change the swing. Blockx has recently been better at establishing that pattern, while Cobolli has been better at surviving when it breaks down. Their contrast is not simply attacker against defender; both can do both jobs, but they reach their best level at different stages of a match.

Neither player holds a home-crowd advantage, although a larger and livelier court would likely give Cobolli more emotional fuel. Blockx’s fresher legs and quieter route balance that edge, especially if he starts quickly again. The match will turn on Cobolli’s return depth, Blockx’s second-serve holds, the Italian’s accumulated fatigue and, above all, which player executes cleanly during the first major pressure swing.