Struff's First Strike Against Cerundolo's Patient Forehand

The second round of the US Open is where the tournament stops being polite. Jan-Lennard Struff and Francisco Cerundolo, the No. 24 seed, both came through their openers on the same day, both against opponents who were not quite themselves, and both left the court with slightly different feelings about what they had just proved. Struff beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli in three sets and sounded relieved. Cerundolo beat Filip Misolic in three and had to survive his own wobble to do it. Now they meet on a hard court in New York, where Struff's game gets its best conditions and Cerundolo's ceiling has historically been the second round.

Struff Found His Focus at the Exact Right Moment

August was not kind to him. In Montreal he lifted his level sharply in the middle of the match against Alex Michelsen and then could not hold it there. In Cincinnati he survived a volatile opener against Burruchaga, saving set points before losing his line and his service stability, and then Alejandro Tabilo simply took the racquet out of his hands on return. German coverage before the US Open described a player still hunting for his hard-court form, and that was a fair description.

Against Ugo Carabelli, though, he looked like a man with a plan he trusted. The first set stayed level until he found the opening at 3-3; he accelerated again from 2-2 in the second, gave one break back, and then watched the Argentine's resistance fall apart, double faults and all. What mattered more than the score was the shape of his tennis: a big serve, an immediate first strike, and a genuine willingness to move forward rather than settle into long neutral rallies.

The honest caveat is that Ugo Carabelli arrived in poor form and contributed generously to his own defeat. Struff was sharp and efficient, but he was never forced to show that the August volatility has actually gone. He also had an odd day off court — the long-time Davis Cup regular learned he had been left out of Germany's squad for the tie against Croatia, with captain Michael Kohlmann watching from the stands. Struff took it without a fight, said he would support the team, and then played his best hard-court tennis in weeks. "It was a strange match. I'm happy — three sets, good," he said, before adding of Cerundolo: "He is a top player; I expect a very difficult match."

Cerundolo Won, But the Closing Still Looks Fragile

Cerundolo's North American swing has been a slow leak. At Los Cabos he won a hugely tense first set against Arthur Gea and then failed to turn that into control — Gea gradually took ownership of the rallies, broke late in the second and ran away with the decider. Gea went on to win the title, which softens the loss a little, but the speed of Cerundolo's decline was the part worth noting. Michelsen then shut him out in Montreal despite Cerundolo creating return openings, punishing him particularly behind the second serve, and an in-form Nuno Borges beat him comfortably in Cincinnati.

The win over Misolic showed both faces at once. His forehand took charge of the match around 3-3 in the opening set, and after falling behind early in the second he responded immediately with his best passage of tennis. Then, in the third, he led 5-2 and let it slip against an opponent returning from a long layoff with visible physical limits — before finding another break at 5-5 and closing it out. The ATP's own tournament read described him as dominating in spells rather than playing a seamless match, which feels right.

Two things sit on his side of the ledger. The first is the "Grand Slam factor": best-of-five has historically brought out his more stubborn, combative self, and his heavy forehand is the stroke his whole court position is built around. The second is Nicolás Massú, his new coach, whose first tournament in the partnership produced a major title — and whose competitive intensity may matter most in a match where Cerundolo's problem is momentum management, not technique.

Whoever Owns the First Two Shots Owns the Afternoon

This is a clean stylistic collision. Struff wants a first-strike contest: serve, immediate forehand or backhand drive, feet moving toward the net before Cerundolo can load up from behind the baseline. Cerundolo wants the opposite — deep returns through the middle or at Struff's feet, then heavy forehands that drag the German laterally and redirect behind him, because Struff is at his most dangerous when he can set his feet and swing freely. If Cerundolo blocks his returns short, Struff will live in the front court all day; if he makes Struff volley below net height, that forward movement stops being comfortable.

The second-serve column is where the match may be decided. Cerundolo was put under real pressure behind his second delivery by Michelsen, and Struff does not need to become a patient returner — he needs enough forceful returns to start points level or better. His return position will be telling: stepping inside the baseline raises his disruptive potential and simultaneously invites Cerundolo's body serve and wide patterns. And Struff's own discipline matters just as much, because his recent losses share a pattern of the first attack missing and the low-percentage shots arriving soon after.

History and conditions pull in opposite directions. Their previous meetings have felt comfortable for Cerundolo, most notably a comprehensive win on clay, which gives him familiarity and a certain calm. The hard court rewrites the terms: Struff's serve becomes more valuable, his return aggression more viable, his net rushes more affordable. Neither man reports any injury or illness, both had the same recovery window, and Struff's shorter, more economical first round leaves him a small practical edge in freshness rather than a medical one.

Which leaves the intrigue in the psychology. Struff has recent evidence that he can function under extended Slam stress — his Wimbledon run was built on close sets, tie-breaks and a match against Brandon Nakashima that survived an overnight suspension — but that was grass, and his mid-match structure on hard courts has been shakier. Cerundolo is chasing a third round in New York for the first time, a milestone that can motivate or tighten the arm at 4-4 in the fourth. The match will probably come down to one question: if Cerundolo absorbs the first strike and hands Struff nothing free, does the German stay disciplined or start swinging for the fences?