Tokyo semifinals, October 31: Fernandez rested, Pohankova rising

The semifinals in Tokyo arrive on October 31, and the four women left have reached them by very different roads. Leylah Annie Fernandez walked into the last four without hitting a ball, after Elena Rybakina withdrew injured. Kamilla Rakhimova and Diana Shnaider, meanwhile, have spent the week climbing out of holes.

Then there is Mia Pohankova, 18 years old and still treating every round as an open door. Two semifinals, two clear questions: does rest beat rhythm, and does experience beat freedom? These are the matches I'll go through:

• 03:00 — Fernandez — Rakhimova
• 04:30 — Shnaider — Pohankova

Times are UTC.

Leylah Annie Fernandez — Kamilla Rakhimova

Fernandez comes in with something rare this late in the season: a free day she did not plan for. The walkover came from Rybakina's injury, not her own, and it cut a potentially brutal quarterfinal out of her schedule after a long run to the Ningbo final. How much that actually refreshes her legs, I can't say for certain.

That Ningbo final was a heavy one, a 2-6 2-6 loss to Rybakina. Fernandez opened the second set brightly, then watched the power on the other side swallow her initiative. She did not carry it around like a stone, though. Speaking to her team afterwards, she said: "We're having a good end of year. We've just got to keep going and keep working hard" (KSL).

In Tokyo she eased past Himeno Sakatsume 6-2 6-4, and the match against Elise Mertens told me more. Fernandez ran away with the first set 6-2, then had to save set points before closing out the second in a tie-break, 7-6(8). A comfortable afternoon turned uncomfortable, and she kept her nerve.

Rakhimova's week has been the opposite of comfortable. She entered as a lucky loser and has turned that small chance into a proper run. Against Ekaterina Alexandrova an early lead slipped away and she had to win a deciding tie-break, 6-4 4-6 7-6(5). Against Maya Joint the momentum swung back and forth before she pulled clear in the decider, 7-5 5-7 6-1.

What I like about her Tokyo tennis is how she behaves when the plan stops working. She loses control of a match, shrugs, and starts again. Whether two long three-setters will show up in her movement is an open question. Nobody has reported any physical problem, so I'd rather judge that from the first few rallies than assume it.

The head-to-head is what keeps this from being a simple favourite-against-outsider story. They are 1-1, both meetings on hard courts and both in three sets. Fernandez won in Wuhan in 2024, 6-2 5-7 7-6(4). Rakhimova won in Beijing on October 3 this year, 6-2 4-6 6-3, so she arrives with fresh proof that she can solve this left-hander.

Diana Shnaider — Mia Pohankova

Shnaider is in the semifinal because she refused to lose twice, and the second escape was the narrower one. Against Alexandra Eala she was outplayed early, came close to defeat in the second set, and only edged the tie-break after an Eala double fault. She then built a lead in the decider and protected it, finishing 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4.

She was honest about it afterwards: "This match deserved to be a final" (WTA). She also admitted she had doubted she could turn it around and had simply kept fighting point by point. Her opener against Aliaksandra Sasnovich also went three sets, 6-3 5-7 6-3. There, Sasnovich's inventive aggression unsettled her through the middle set until the errors started coming from the other side.

That Sasnovich match matters here, because Pohankova brings exactly that kind of variety. Magdaléna Rybáriková has pointed to her touch and her habit of changing the rhythm rather than just trading power. Jan Kukal sees her unfamiliarity as a weapon, since nobody on tour has had time to learn her game yet.

Her week has had real substance. After a quick 6-1 6-4 win over Tereza Valentova, she beat Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-5, recovering from a hesitant start to become the more aggressive player. Klára Koukalová praised both her tactics and how calmly she handled the finish. Plenty of teenagers trip over the match after a win like that. Pohankova instead held firm late in the first set against Alycia Parks and won the tie-break. When she dropped serve in the second, she broke straight back and won 7-6(3) 6-3.

Speaking to STVR, she said: "I'm feeling really, really good here in Tokyo" (STVR). In the same breath she stressed that the tournament was not over yet. Former national team coach Mojmír Mihál told Sportnet that the Osaka win had sent her confidence soaring. He also praised her calmness, her movement and her willingness to take the ball early.

They have never met. The question, to my mind, is whether Pohankova can keep the judgment she showed against Osaka, pressing when she is balanced and buying time when she is pulled wide. If she tries to hit through every rally, Shnaider will do what she did against Sasnovich: reset, keep the ball in play, and wait for the attacking level to waver.

I honestly find this one murky. Shnaider is the more established player and the 1.37 price says so, and her resilience this week is real. But she has spent a lot of energy on two escapes, while Pohankova plays like someone walking through spring rather than late autumn. I lean slightly toward Shnaider, yet at +4 Pohankova looks a decent proposition, and I would not be surprised by a third set or by an upset outright.

Rakhimova's revenge, Shnaider's legs and a teenager without fear

The day comes down to freshness against momentum. Fernandez has had a rest, while Rakhimova and Shnaider have the scar tissue of long matches that may harden them or slow them down. Pohankova, meanwhile, is the player I most want to see on court: an 18-year-old whose variety has already troubled a former world No. 1's game this week.

If I had to pick a single moment, it would be the first time Pohankova slows a rally down and Shnaider has to decide how to answer.