Curitiba quarterfinals, October 30: Jones's adductor meets Naná's breakthrough

The first edition of the Curitiba clay-court event has reached the quarterfinals, and the eight survivors arrive with very different baggage. Some are carrying long, bruising wins. One is carrying a sore left adductor. And one is a 16-year-old Brazilian who has just won her first matches at this level and says she is simply enjoying herself.

The day has a domestic Argentine duel, a clash of two recent clay runs and one genuinely hard question about fitness. Here is how I see all four quarterfinals, in the order they go on court:

15:00 — Julia Riera — Solana Sierra
15:00 — Leyre Romero Gormaz — Julia Grabher
16:30 — Francesca Jones — Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva
18:00 — Alice Tubello — Jazmin Ortenzi

Times are UTC.

Julia Riera — Solana Sierra

Two Argentines, and two players who have already had to climb out of a hole this week. Riera's opener against Rebeka Masarova started as a near-collapse. She lost the first set 1-6 and was still in trouble in the second before the match turned, and she ran away with the decider 6-1. Against Yasmine Kabbaj she was tidier, winning 6-2 6-4 without needing a third set.

Sierra had the opposite rhythm. She cruised past Justina González Daniele and then got dragged into the mud by Gabriela Cé, winning 7-6(2) 3-6 6-4 after losing control in the middle set. For Sierra this week is about more than one match. It is her first real run of main-draw wins since Roland Garros, after a hard-court season that went badly for her.

Riera has been the steadier clay player in 2026, with 38 wins on the surface this year. Sierra had a rest day after the Cé battle while Riera also has doubles to manage, but I would not call either of them clearly fresher. They have never met. To my eye the question is simple: who can take control of this match without first having to rescue it?

The line is close to a coin toss, and I agree with it. I can't separate them with confidence. What I do expect is a long, nervy match with momentum swinging, and the over on 21.5 games seems a more natural fit than a quick finish. A decider would not surprise me at all.

Leyre Romero Gormaz — Julia Grabher

Romero Gormaz came to Brazil on a good run. In Lisbon she beat Fiona Ferro 6-2 6-2 and Dalma Gálfi 6-2 6-3 before Clara Burel stopped her in the final. In Curitiba she has kept the same clean pace: 6-2 6-1 in the opener, then 7-5 6-2 against Antonia Vergara Rivera once the first set had been settled.

Grabher wins in a different way. She grinds. Both of her matches here went long, 7-5 7-6(1) against Carolina Alves and 7-5 7-5 against María Lourdes Carlé. Her recent Tolentino title followed the same pattern, with early deficits repaired and her tennis improving through the week. Afterwards she wrote that she was "overjoyed with this success" (ÖTV). That is the mood of a 30-year-old who has rediscovered how to win close sets.

They have met once, on hard courts in Auckland at the end of 2024. Grabher won that one 2-6 6-3 7-6(7), recovering from a set down, which is very much her style. Clay should suit both of them better. Romero Gormaz, a left-hander, played her last singles match on Wednesday and has had the longer break.

I think Romero Gormaz has to make her fresher legs count early, before Grabher pulls the match into the tight, set-by-set fight where she is most comfortable. The market leans slightly towards Grabher, and I can see why, but I don't have a strong view on the winner. What I do expect is length: Grabher's matches this week have been long, and over 21.5 games looks likely to me.

Francesca Jones — Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

This is the match of the day, and it turns on a body part. TenisBrasil reports that Francesca Jones has had a left-adductor problem since her first match. She still beat Marjorie Souza 6-4 6-3 despite the limitation. There is no diagnosis and no all-clear, only a player who keeps winning while clearly not moving freely.

Souza was open about her plan. "My idea was to move Jones around as much as I could," she said (TenisBrasil). She also admitted she rarely managed to do it. That is reassuring for Jones and a warning for whoever tries the same thing next. Jones's opener against María Florencia Urrutia also started unevenly, at 7-5, before she won the second set 6-1.

Across the net is Naná, 16 years old and ranked 660th, playing the first quarterfinal of her career at this level. She felt unwell before her opener and was thrown off rhythm in a 7-5 1-6 6-3 win, as Despina Papamichail kept mixing long rallies with drop shots. Against Luisina Giovannini she looked like a different player, hitting hard off both wings and winning 6-4 6-4.

"I'm enjoying being on court," she said afterwards (Diário do Tênis). You can see it in her tennis too. The one cloud is her schedule: she played doubles on Thursday and has another doubles match after this one. To my eye the key is patience. She has to move Jones from side to side without going for too much, and without being drawn into the changes of pace that troubled her in the first round.

Jones is the more complete player, and at 1.25 the market barely takes the injury into account. I still think she is closer to the win. But I expect Naná to test that adductor long enough to make it a real match, so +4.5 for Naná looks like the safer reading of this one to me.

Alice Tubello — Jazmin Ortenzi

The ranking says Ortenzi and the market says Tubello. Tubello's opener explains why. She beat Laura Samson, ranked 116th, 6-0 6-4, a result TennisActu's Jules Harode called "a major coup" (TennisActu). She followed it with a calm 6-4 6-3 over Luna Cinalli. Her clay record this season, 40 wins, belongs to someone who is at home on the surface.

Ortenzi has had an even smoother path. After a competitive first set against Victoria Bosio, she took apart Lourdes Ayala 6-0 6-2 and never let her back in. There is a career angle for Tubello as well: TennisActu notes she has little to defend before the Australian Open qualifying cutoff. Both played their last singles match on Wednesday, so neither has an advantage in rest.

They have never met, and neither has been seriously tested in Curitiba yet. I lean slightly towards Tubello, as the market does, but −3 games asks a lot from a player facing someone in this kind of form. My guess is a closer match than the odds suggest, decided by whoever holds their preferred tempo once the other stops giving ground. I would not be surprised if Ortenzi keeps it within that margin.

Jones's adductor and two long, tight contests

For me the day hangs on one question: how far Francesca Jones can run, and whether Naná has the patience to find out. Around it are two matches, Riera against Sierra and Romero Gormaz against Grabher, that look likely to be long and tight, and a Tubello–Ortenzi match that the rankings and the market read differently.

I've given my leanings, with the doubts left in. The tipsters go further on the match pages, where they set out concrete picks on each of these quarterfinals.