Courmayeur quarterfinals, October 30: comebacks, tired legs and Kubka’s test for Blinkova

The quarterfinals in Courmayeur arrive with the first real chill of the season in the valley. Four matches on hard courts, and in almost every one somebody carries a heavy match in her legs. Charaeva, Aksu, Jacquemot and Blinkova all needed a decider to get here. To my eye, the day will turn less on talent than on who has recovered and who can start well instead of repairing a bad start.

There are small threads running between these matches. Bassols Ribera and Noma Noha Akugue both lost to the same opponent in Wrexham last week. Kubka recently thrashed Charaeva. Blinkova lost to a player Jacquemot beat. Here is the order in which the day unfolds:

13:00 — Bassols Ribera — Charaeva
13:00 — Aksu — Noha Akugue
14:30 — Jacquemot — Yaneva
14:30 — Blinkova — Kubka

Times are UTC.

Marina Bassols Ribera — Alina Charaeva

Charaeva is the favourite here, and the line treats her almost as a certainty. I am less sure. She came to Courmayeur off three straight defeats, including a 1-6 2-6 loss to Kubka and a collapse against Siskova in Wrexham after leading by a set.

What changed this week is how she handled trouble. Against Knutson she was blown away in the opening set, 1-6, then found the range on her groundstrokes again and won the next two sets 6-2 6-3. Earlier this month, after a comeback against Rybakina in Beijing, she explained where that comes from: "I think it's just about believing" (ASAP Sports).

Bassols Ribera has had a quieter route. She beat Jimenez Kasintseva 6-3 6-3, then closed out Erika Andreeva in an extended tie-break at 7-6(7) instead of letting it drift into a decider. A foot injury interrupted her progress earlier in her career, but nothing suggests an active problem now.

Her Wrexham defeat to Burrage, 1-6 4-6, is a warning for her. She was rushed from the first point and never quite settled. If Charaeva calibrates early, Bassols could get the same treatment. Charaeva also had Thursday off from singles, while Bassols played.

I think Charaeva is closer to the semifinal, but not by the margin the price suggests. Her week has been about rescue missions, and an opponent who sustains pressure early can make her work. At +4 games, Bassols Ribera looks decent to me. I would not be surprised by a tight two-setter in either direction.

Ayla Aksu — Noma Noha Akugue

Aksu has turned resilience into a habit this autumn. Her title run in Samsun was built on comebacks, and here she lost the opening set 2-6 to Stefanini before winning 6-4 6-3. She has now beaten Stefanini twice in a short span, both times over three sets.

Noha Akugue, the left-hander of the day, has had a cleaner week: 7-6(4) 6-1 against Kovinic, then 6-4 6-3 against Klimovicova. Her mood before arriving was harder to read. In Wrexham she lost to Burrage 1-6 6-7(9) and failed to take her chances in that tie-break.

A club defeat for Rungg followed, and her team coach Manuel Gasbarri admitted that "this defeat has left us a bit lost for answers" (Sportnews). That was about a team match, not about Courmayeur, but it suggests she did not come here on a wave of confidence.

The schedule favours Noha Akugue: she finished her singles on Wednesday, while Aksu played her comeback on Thursday. Whether Aksu actually feels it, nobody has said. The question for her is simple: can she start strongly this time, or will she need another rescue?

I lean towards Noha Akugue, mainly because of the extra day and the cleaner tennis so far. Still, Aksu has made a career this season of refusing to go away, so I expect a long match. Over 21.5 games makes sense to me more than a clear-cut winner does.

Elsa Jacquemot — Elizara Yaneva

This is the match of the day for me, because both players arrive having survived something. Jacquemot is in the middle of a revival after difficult weeks. In Wrexham she reached the final, and after her semifinal she sounded relieved: "My match was very hard, Suzan played really well. I'm really happy to win this match" (LTA).

In Courmayeur the battles continued. She recovered from 2-6 down against Werner to win 7-5 7-5, then lost a tie-break to Bandecchi before taking the next two sets 6-2 6-3. That is two deciders after a deep week elsewhere. She finds a way back, but each comeback costs something.

Yaneva, at 19, is the youngest player left in this half of the day. She dismissed Pieri 6-2 6-2. Her win over Selekhmeteva said much more: she lost control mid-match, fell behind in the decider and still finished strongly, 6-3 3-6 6-3. A teenager who can regroup after that kind of swing is dangerous.

Her rest is not clean either. She had no singles on Thursday, but her doubles with Sobolieva went to a match tie-break. So the recovery advantage is real, just smaller than it looks.

I give Yaneva a slight edge, mostly because Jacquemot’s legs have been through a great deal in two weeks. Both players lose sets and come back, so I expect a long fight. A decider would not surprise me, and over 22 games looks the natural shape of this match.

Anna Blinkova — Martyna Kubka

Blinkova is the highest-ranked player left and the clear favourite. She also seems happiest in this setting. On local radio she said she feels "right at home in Courmayeur — I love the mountains" (Gazzetta Matin). Morning walks in the hills seem to agree with her.

Her tennis has been less steady than her mood. She outplayed Galfi 6-3 6-2, then let Zavatska take the second set before winning the decider. Her form before Courmayeur was patchy, with defeats to Lamens and Stefanini. There is also season-end pressure: she has points from Jiujiang to replace.

Kubka is the form player on the other side. Her 6-2 6-1 win over Pigato was the most convincing result of the round. She has also already beaten Charaeva 6-1 6-2 this autumn. Her hard-court record this season, 23-10, is better than Blinkova’s 18-17.

Her weakness showed in Rovereto. She led Salkova 6-1, missed her chances and lost the match as the errors piled up. A strong start is no guarantee for her. The previous round was lighter for Kubka, while Blinkova needed three sets.

I think this is much closer than the odds suggest. Blinkova’s experience may well carry her through, but Kubka’s current level should keep her in most sets. To my eye, Kubka at +4 games looks reasonable, and if the Pole keeps her nerve in the closing stages, an upset would not shock me.

Jacquemot’s legs, Kubka’s nerve and a day of comebacks

The main question of the day is whether fatigue finally catches anyone. Jacquemot and Aksu have paid for their comebacks, and Charaeva keeps winning matches she starts badly. I would watch the late session most closely: Yaneva against Jacquemot has the best story, and Kubka has a real chance to test Blinkova.

I have given my expectations, but tennis in late October tends to be unpredictable.