Brussels, October 24, 2026: Fils faces Struff’s pressure test

Brussels reaches the semifinals on October 24, 2026, with Arthur Fils chasing a place at the season-ending Finals and Jan-Lennard Struff threatening to interrupt him. Francisco Cerundolo brings the cleaner recent performance into the other semifinal, but Tallon Griekspoor has rediscovered how to win difficult matches.

The centre court adds a useful complication: Fils has described it as unusually slow. That puts more responsibility on the shot after the serve, rather than the serve alone. These are the two tests I find most revealing:

14:00 — Francisco Cerundolo — Tallon Griekspoor
16:30 — Arthur Fils — Jan-Lennard Struff

Times are UTC.

Francisco Cerundolo — Tallon Griekspoor

Cerundolo is pursuing a hard-court title to complete a season with trophies on three surfaces. His immediate advantage is less decorative: he reached this semifinal by establishing control early and keeping it.

The 6-2, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Clement Chidekh began with assertive returning and settled into secure service games. After the tighter opening match against Martin Damm, Cerundolo looked better able to dictate from the baseline without letting an opponent’s brief improvement change the match.

Griekspoor has taken the longer route. He needed three sets against Max Schoenhaus, two competitive sets against Mariano Navone and a recovery from a set down against Jiri Lehecka. That last turnaround matters: his confidence now has evidence behind it.

Their only previous meeting went Cerundolo’s way, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, in the first round of the Miami Open on March 23, 2022. It was also on hard courts, but an outdoor match more than four years ago offers only limited guidance for this indoor semifinal.

To my eye, the decisive contest is between Cerundolo’s return pressure and Griekspoor’s ability to protect his service games. Griekspoor cannot keep giving Cerundolo comfortable positions from which to dictate. His second serve needs to start a contest, not an exercise in retrieving.

Workload favours Cerundolo on paper, though neither player has a reported injury in the supplied coverage. Griekspoor’s extra sets are not proof of fatigue; they simply leave Cerundolo with fewer recovery questions and a more settled recent performance.

I lean towards Cerundolo winning through sustained baseline control rather than a quick demolition. His −2.5-game handicap looks achievable if his return game stays as disciplined as it was against Chidekh, although Griekspoor’s improved pressure-point execution makes a close set entirely plausible.

Arthur Fils — Jan-Lennard Struff

Fils has the bigger season-end objective, but Struff arrives with the more established tournament rhythm. A bye and Jaume Munar’s withdrawal left Fils waiting until the quarterfinal to play his first match of the week.

That lack of competitive sharpness became visible against Alex Michelsen. Fils failed to serve out the match, then survived a 14-12 second-set tie-break after repeatedly missing chances to finish. The resilience deserves credit; the closing routine still needs attention.

Struff has won all three of his matches here in straight sets, including three tie-breaks. Against Zizou Bergs, his aggression remained effective when the finish tightened, with his opponent identifying the German’s serving on important points as a major difference.

Slow does not mean passive. Fils has explained that these conditions require changes of trajectory, rhythm and serving patterns. Struff still needs his first attacking ball to do damage, but Fils must make him hit it from less comfortable positions.

I see this as a service-box drill with consequences: the delivery matters, but so does recovering into position for the next ball. Fils cannot let Struff repeatedly attack a predictable second serve. Rank does not hold serve.

Fils won their only previous meeting, 6-3, 6-4, in the second round of the Paris Masters on October 30, 2024. That indoor-hard result is relevant, though Struff’s current execution under pressure makes a repeat score far from automatic.

Fils has less match mileage this week, while Struff played in the final singles slot on quarterfinal evening. Neither has a reported injury in the supplied coverage. I would distinguish that recovery imbalance from any claim that Struff is already tired.

I still make Fils the likelier finalist, but I expect resistance rather than an orderly procession. Struff’s +4.5 games looks a reasonable reflection of his serving form; Fils may need a tight two-set win or a decider unless his return pressure improves sharply.

Control for Cerundolo, composure for Fils

I expect these semifinals to turn on different kinds of discipline. Cerundolo needs to preserve the control he has earned, while Fils needs to close opportunities before Struff turns them into pressure games.

The most revealing tennis should come when the first serve stops providing an easy start. My reading favours Cerundolo and Fils to advance; the AI cappers make the concrete picks on the individual match pages.