The question is whether Bartunkova can get her first-strike game going before Sasnovich puts pressure on her serve. Sasnovich has two Tokyo qualifying wins over top-70 opponents and took roughly half the return points in each; Bartunkova’s 13 double faults against Tagger suggest there may be openings to exploit.

At 2.615, the price makes Sasnovich worth a low-conviction upset play. Bartunkova has also struggled to protect commanding positions, while she has not played since losing to Paolini and was wearing strapping on her left thigh. That is a question mark, not proof of impaired movement.

I’m backing Sasnovich to win: she is already match-hardened on these courts, and her return pressure fits the task. The risk is Bartunkova’s higher ceiling; her wins over Sabalenka and Muchova show what she can do if she is physically right and finds her attacking range.

Rybakina is the deserved favourite, but this is not a comfortable matchup on paper: the hard-court series is level, and Fernandez beat her in Washington in 2025. After the Shnaider semifinal, Rybakina said left-handed patterns are difficult; now she faces another left-hander who can make her work on return. I’m taking Fernandez to win at 3.69.

The price overstates the gap between them. Fernandez’s wins over Mertens, Alexandrova and Bouzkova show a run built on more than escape acts, while Rybakina’s serve has looked less settled in Ningbo, with double faults and a low first-serve percentage.

The concern is that Fernandez’s own serve has been vulnerable, and three-set matches have left her with considerably more court time. That makes this a modest underdog play, not a grand declaration: the risk is real, but 3.69 gives her quality and this particular matchup room to matter.

Can Mary Stoiana’s variety unsettle Katerina Siniakova before the Czech finds her return-game rhythm? Siniakova’s recent singles have swung sharply: after taking the first set against Stearns, she lost the second 0-6 before Stearns retired; against Svitolina and Samsonova, strong passages also gave way to trouble.

Stoiana has the tools to make those swings matter. Her slice backhand, changes of pace and net finishes can disrupt rhythm, and after losing the second set to Uchijima in Osaka, she reset to win the decider; she has now come through four matches here. At 2.859, the price makes her a worthwhile live underdog, given the doubts around Siniakova’s serve and the inconsistency in her recent singles.

The risk is clear: Siniakova’s return pressure against Linette was much cleaner, and if she brings that level again, Stoiana’s serve could come under sustained pressure. Still, the market seems to be pricing in that steadier version too readily. My pick is Mary Stoiana to win.

Can Clara Burel’s steadier recent run justify making her such a clear favourite? It is a fair question after her Valencia title and clean Lisbon progress, but Leyre Romero Gormaz is ranked higher, and her left-handed patterns could make the clay-court exchanges less comfortable for Burel.

Romero Gormaz is worth backing at 2.983. She came through a demanding opener, then beat Fiona Ferro and Dalma Gálfi in straight sets; Ferro had already beaten Burel in a clay final this season. That is not a direct comparison, but it makes the gap between their Lisbon campaigns look smaller than the price suggests.

The concern is real: Burel has shown better week-to-week stability, including a Valencia final comeback, and reporters describe her as playing with confidence. Romero Gormaz had mid-match dips in earlier losses to Martina Trevisan and Jessica Pieri. Even so, the ranking and left-handed matchup leave enough room in the price for the underdog.

The question is whether Andreescu’s strong week outweighs a matchup the market may be reading too simply. Salkova is ranked 120th to Andreescu’s 168th, has the better current ranking points, and has been the more reliable indoor-hard player over the last two seasons.

That makes 3.38 appealing for Salkova: Andreescu’s hard-court season has been less consistent, and her week has included a three-hour battle with Ruzic, cramps and visible support around her thigh. She has recovered well since, but the physical risk has not vanished just because the next rounds went better.

Salkova has won three straight three-set matches in Rovereto, repeatedly finding a way back after poor starts. That resilience matters against an opponent who may test her serve early; the price looks generous enough to back Salkova to finish the job.

The main risk is Andreescu’s return game putting Salkova’s high double-fault count and early service instability under immediate pressure. If Salkova cannot settle on serve, the matchup can look very different from the ranking and recent indoor record.