Almaty Open quarterfinals, October 23, 2026: Bublik's home debut against Khachanov

The quarterfinals in Almaty bring an odd mix of preparation. One man reaches this stage without hitting a singles ball all week. Another arrives having barely survived a third-set tie-break. A third is trying to rebuild his reputation one patient rally at a time. Defending champion Daniil Medvedev sits in the middle of the day, chasing a place at the ATP Finals.

The evening belongs to Alexander Bublik, who wants to become the first Kazakh to win this title and has not yet played a match here. Four quarterfinals, four quite different stories, and I'll go through them in order:

06:30 — Basilashvili — Mannarino
08:00 — Tsitsipas — Duckworth
09:30 — Medvedev — Atmane
14:30 — Bublik — Khachanov

Times are UTC.

Nikoloz Basilashvili — Adrian Mannarino

This meeting comes with unfinished business. Earlier this month in Shanghai, Basilashvili retired at 3-6, 2-2 against Mannarino with a left-knee problem, and that half-match told us almost nothing about the tennis. Almaty is the proper sequel, as long as the knee lets him play it fully.

The Georgian has given good reasons to believe it will. At 34 he came through qualifying, survived a tight closing set against Adam Walton, and then beat Marin Cilic and Facundo Diaz Acosta without needing a decider. That makes four wins this week on a body that was limping two weeks ago. I find that encouraging, though it falls short of a medical certificate, and his lateral movement will be the first thing I look at.

Mannarino, at 38, keeps turning the end of the season into a small renaissance. He beat Flavio Cobolli in Shanghai and then, here, took out Andrey Rublev 6-4 3-6 6-3 after absorbing the Russian's comeback in the second set. Sport365's Aurélien Canot describes him as finishing the season strongly. Almaty clearly suits the Frenchman, who is 13-3 at this event over his career.

Mannarino leads the head-to-head 2-1, but the counting is generous: the Shanghai win was a retirement. The Paris win in 2021 was a clean 6-2 6-4 indoors. Basilashvili's only win came back in Sofia in 2017, through two tie-breaks. The stylistic puzzle is familiar. Basilashvili hits hard and flat, and Mannarino, a left-hander, sends that pace back low and awkward, asking whether the bigger man can stay balanced.

I honestly can't separate them with any confidence. The bookmakers lean slightly to Basilashvili, and his cleaner route through the draw supports that. Mannarino's matches this week have gone long and twisted, though, and I suspect this one will too. If the knee holds, I expect a close, stubborn match, and over 22.5 games looks more natural to me than a quick verdict either way.

Stefanos Tsitsipas — James Duckworth

Tsitsipas seems to have found a little peace in Almaty. His opener against Aleksandar Kovacevic wobbled in the middle before he reset, winning 7-6(9) 3-6 6-3. Then came Mikhail Kukushkin's farewell match, which Tsitsipas won 6-1 6-2 while admitting he was uncomfortable being the man who ended a career. "I just played freely," he said afterwards, as Kursiv reported.

The interesting part is where he says that freedom came from. He described the court as somewhat slower than Shanghai's, and he believes he now understands the conditions better. He is also clear about what Duckworth will bring. He expects the Australian to take the initiative and come to the net, and he wants sharper serve placement and a better first shot after it.

Duckworth, 34, arrived after three straight losses and has since found his feet in a city he plainly likes, with an 11-4 career record here. He beat Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4 6-3, then held off Luciano Darderi 7-5 7-6(7) in a serve-led performance that stayed steady as the pressure rose. Australian Associated Press called it his best win of the season. Their only previous meeting, in Washington in 2018, went to Tsitsipas 6-3 6-4.

I think Tsitsipas is the clear favourite. His range on this slower court should eventually wear down an opponent who has to keep rushing forward to stay in points. Duckworth will win some short points with first strikes, but I expect the Greek to hold more comfortably than he breaks less often. At −3.5 games, Tsitsipas looks a reasonable expectation to me, though the match itself will decide that.

Daniil Medvedev — Terence Atmane

Medvedev has played just one match this week, and it barely tested him. He beat Sho Shimabukuro 6-2 6-1, building early leads and serving his way out of the only real moment of danger. After a busy Asian swing that ended with a loss to Rafael Jodar in Shanghai, that economy matters. Sport-Express judged that his hard-court tennis is in good shape and that the opener eased questions about his fitness. Three titles this year, a defending champion's billing, and an ATP Finals race in progress give him plenty to play for.

Atmane's week is a different kind of story. The 24-year-old left-hander came to Almaty after two retirements, against Bernard Tomic and Elias Ymer, which drew criticism. He has since spoken openly about a mentally hard season and about his own behaviour. He presents this week as a fresh start. The reasons for those retirements were never made clear in reporting, and I have no wish to invent a diagnosis.

What I can see is that he has stayed on court. He settled after a tight first set against Rinky Hijikata. Against Mattia Bellucci he lost the opening tie-break, fought back, recovered an early deficit in the decider and won 6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(5). That is a long, emotional afternoon to carry into a quarterfinal against the man who least rewards impatience.

Medvedev leads the head-to-head 2-0. He won on grass in Halle this June 6-4 6-4. Their Australian Open meeting in 2024 ended with Atmane retiring at the start of the fifth set. For Atmane, the key is aggression with a purpose: pulling Medvedev out of his deep defensive position rather than trying to finish from neutral rallies. If he goes for too much too early, Medvedev will simply keep making him hit one more ball.

I expect Medvedev to win, probably in straight sets, with the gap growing as Atmane's legs and patience come under strain. The −4.5 handicap is ambitious but within reach. Given Medvedev's efficiency, I lean to the under on 21.5 games rather than a long match. The one caveat is that Atmane's newfound persistence may be more stubborn than one bad week suggests.

Alexander Bublik — Karen Khachanov

This is the match the city has waited for. Bublik received an opening bye and then a walkover when Fabian Marozsan withdrew through illness. His Almaty campaign therefore starts in the quarterfinals, against a top player, in front of his home crowd. He has been open about how much he wants this title. "I'm here to enjoy it, to give the Kazakh people some good tennis," he said at the pre-tournament press conference (CLAY).

I'm wary of calling the rest an advantage. Fresh legs are welcome, but Bublik has no match rhythm on this court, and his recent form is mixed. He narrowly lost to Alexander Zverev 6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(1) after losses to Jakub Mensik and Jodar. His 3-4 career record here also suggests that home soil has not always been comfortable. CLAY reports that the physical problems that kept him away before are behind him.

Khachanov has had the opposite week, with plenty of court time. After a tidy win over Rei Sakamoto, he looked in control against Tomas Machac until the Czech started hitting bigger and finding his lines. Khachanov escaped 6-2 4-6 7-6(7) and summed it up simply: "I have no words" (Sport-Express). There is one small coincidence: Bublik also beat Machac recently, 6-4 7-6(4), only with less drama.

Their head-to-head is 1-1. Khachanov won on hard courts at the 2020 Western & Southern Open 6-4 6-4. Bublik won the more recent and more significant meeting, a Halle semifinal on grass last year, 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4. The contrast is clear. Bublik changes rhythm, chips, drop-shots and serves out of nowhere, while Khachanov prefers to build steady baseline pressure. What decides the match is whether Bublik's improvisation unsettles Khachanov or simply hands him the initiative.

This is the most open match of the day, and the prices say so. I lean very slightly to Bublik, because of the crowd and the Halle memory, but Khachanov's recovery from the Machac fight could just as easily make him sharper rather than slower. Two big servers and a nervous home start suggest tie-breaks, and I expect the match to go over 24.5 games more readily than to end quickly.

Bublik's home debut, Medvedev's title defence and a knee in Shanghai's shadow

For me, the day turns on three questions. Can Bublik find his timing at once with the whole city watching? Has Basilashvili's knee really healed? Does Atmane's fresh start survive a few hours of Medvedev's defence? Tsitsipas against Duckworth looks the most predictable match, though I'm curious whether his new calm holds against someone rushing the net.

My own picture of the day is sketched above, but the AI cappers handle the specifics on the match pages. They break each of these quarterfinals down in more detail than I've tried to here.