Almaty, 22 October 2026: Bublik’s home test and Atmane’s fitness question

Almaty’s second round on 22 October puts discipline under several kinds of pressure. Alexander Bublik carries home expectations, Terence Atmane has unresolved physical concerns, and Daniil Medvedev begins his title defence after a demanding Shanghai run.

Tomas Machac against Karen Khachanov looks the strongest test of sustained ball-striking. Mattia Bellucci brings momentum but a crowded workload, while Fabian Marozsan has already handled one partisan crowd this week. These are the four matches I would put at the centre of the day:

06:00 — Alexander Bublik — Fabian Marozsan
06:30 — Terence Atmane — Mattia Bellucci
08:00 — Tomas Machac — Karen Khachanov
09:30 — Daniil Medvedev — Sho Shimabukuro

Times are UTC, following the supplied schedule. Tournament reporting places Bublik–Marozsan in the evening session, so that start time remains in conflict.

Alexander Bublik — Fabian Marozsan

Home support gives Bublik energy, but it also raises the price of a careless service game. His ambition to become the tournament’s first Kazakh champion makes this more than a routine opening singles assignment after a bye.

Shanghai showed both sides of his tennis. Bublik recovered to beat Brandon Nakashima after losing the opening tie-break, then pushed Alexander Zverev to a deciding tie-break after wasting earlier opportunities. The attacking level was there; control at the pressure points was less dependable.

Bublik also cut his hand after striking a courtside cooler against Nakashima, although he completed that match and subsequently faced Zverev. There is no verified update on whether the cut still needs protection. A cooler is not part of the opposition.

Marozsan’s 7-5, 7-6(4) win over Timofey Skatov required patience rather than overwhelming hitting. He recovered an early second-set deficit and finished against a local opponent, useful preparation for another match in which the crowd will favour the other player.

I see Bublik’s serve and first strike as the main advantage, provided he does not force the finish when Marozsan changes pace. His 13-7 outdoor hard-court record this season offers a firmer base than Marozsan’s 11-13, though neither figure settles an indoor contest.

I lean towards Bublik, but not towards effortless separation. Marozsan’s composure and Bublik’s recent tie-break traffic make over 22.5 games plausible to my eye; Bublik’s ability to hold through a spell of missed first serves could decide whether this stays in two sets.

Terence Atmane — Mattia Bellucci

A completed opening match was an important step for Atmane, not a medical clearance. His 7-6(5), 6-2 win over Rinky Hijikata gives him something solid after two recent retirements, but the unresolved physical questions remain part of this contest.

Reporting described investigations into recurring physical breakdowns and abnormal muscle-enzyme findings without establishing a diagnosis. Atmane’s ability to finish strongly against Hijikata was encouraging. It cannot establish how his body will respond to another demanding match.

Bellucci’s confidence has stronger recent foundations: his supplied last five results are all wins, including a three-set victory over Tomas Martin Etcheverry here. That opener was untidy, but Bellucci recovered after losing the second set and used approaches to interrupt Etcheverry’s rhythm.

The counterweight is workload. Bellucci played a title run in Jinan last week and a lengthy opener on Wednesday; Atmane played Tuesday and had Wednesday free from singles. Bellucci’s 27-16 hard-court record this season supports his progress, but fresh legs are a separate qualification.

Both players are left-handed, so some familiar serving patterns against right-handers disappear. I think Bellucci’s willingness to move forward can disturb Atmane’s baseline rhythm, but those approaches need sound preparation rather than confidence alone.

I give Bellucci a narrow edge because his recent tennis contains more evidence of successful problem-solving. The 22.5-game total looks reachable if both sustain their level, but this is too uncertain for a firm conclusion: Atmane’s durability and Bellucci’s recovery could pull the match in opposite directions.

Tomas Machac — Karen Khachanov

A 6-2, 6-0 opener does not answer every question about Machac’s form. He lost serve immediately against Zangar Nurlanuly before settling and taking control; Khachanov is far less likely to let an uncertain start pass without consequence.

Machac found his backhand down the line and attacked effectively once his timing settled. Yet a recent three-set loss to Liam Draxl sits alongside those cleaner wins. To my eye, this is the practice drill with the feeding basket removed: the next ball will not arrive where Machac wants it.

Khachanov’s 6-2, 6-4 win over Rei Sakamoto was more orderly. His explanation that returning to his old racket restored familiar feel and confidence matters here: a player trusting his contact is better placed to repeat a reliable rally pattern under pressure.

Khachanov leads their supplied head-to-head 1-0. He won their only meeting on 19 January 2024, beating Machac 6-4, 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(5) in the Australian Open third round on hard courts. Two tie-breaks underline how competitive that match was, despite the four-set result.

Machac needs early contact and changes of direction without turning every neutral ball into an attacking obligation. Khachanov also had Wednesday free from singles, whereas Machac returns after his opener, although its short duration limits the obvious workload concern.

I expect Khachanov’s steadier depth to make him the likelier winner. Machac has enough attacking variety to keep this competitive, so the −3.5-game handicap looks less secure to me than the outright advantage; Khachanov still has to earn the separation.

Daniil Medvedev — Sho Shimabukuro

The main question is how sharply Medvedev begins, rather than whether his established hard-court game gives him the advantage. He chose to continue competing instead of taking a longer recovery block, with a title defence and the season-ending championships among his motivations.

His Shanghai semifinal defeat to Rafael Jodar contained repeated recoveries of breaks, followed by further lapses. Medvedev was finding routes back without sustaining control. His 35-10 hard-court record this season nevertheless gives this matchup a substantial foundation beyond reputation.

Shimabukuro earned his place by recovering to beat Roman Safiullin 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4. Safiullin’s account described an early second-set advantage slipping away before Shimabukuro improved and established control in the decider. That resilience matters, even against a much stronger favourite.

I expect Medvedev’s depth and defensive coverage to demand more successful attacking shots than Shimabukuro needed in the opener. Shimabukuro cannot afford passive exchanges, but forcing the pace too early would make Medvedev’s return games considerably easier.

I expect Medvedev to win in straight sets, with relatively few games if his service discipline holds. The −5.5-game line is plausible rather than comfortable: a single loose service game could keep Shimabukuro close enough to spoil an otherwise controlled afternoon.

Bublik’s control, Atmane’s durability

I think the day’s clearest measure is how each player responds when the first plan stops working. Bublik needs restraint after missed chances, Machac needs patient aggression, and Atmane needs another completed performance before any broader physical conclusion becomes credible.

Medvedev supplies the strongest favourite, but Bellucci’s recovery and Khachanov’s restored confidence give the programme much of its substance. I have set out the tennis behind those expectations; the AI cappers make the specific picks on the individual match pages.