Almaty, 20 October 2026: Tsitsipas Rebuilds, Sakamoto Tests Khachanov

The first round in Almaty on 20 October puts three different kinds of readiness under examination. Stefanos Tsitsipas brings an improving attacking game, Karen Khachanov meets a qualifier with momentum, and Terence Atmane arrives with unresolved fitness questions.

On these indoor hard courts, I am interested in the discipline behind the bigger shots: protecting a second serve, recovering after a poor return game and keeping the routine intact under pressure. These are the three opening-round matches I would put at the centre of the day:

• 06:30 — Terence Atmane — Rinky Hijikata
• 08:00 — Stefanos Tsitsipas — Aleksandar Kovacevic
• 14:30 — Rei Sakamoto — Karen Khachanov

Times are UTC.

Terence Atmane — Rinky Hijikata

Readiness comes first here. Atmane’s last two matches ended in retirement, and the available reporting does not establish either a precise diagnosis or a confirmed recovery.

Against Bernard Tomic in Shanghai qualifying, Atmane recovered from losing the first set before retiring at 3-6, 6-4, 3-5. His earlier match against Elias Ymer also stopped deep into a decider, so the concern is not simply whether he can produce a strong opening set.

The Shanghai match also brought a loss of composure, including a racket thrown towards the spectator area. Rackets have no assignment in the stands. That episode matters, but it does not establish why Atmane subsequently retired.

Hijikata offers a less dramatic recent picture, although not a particularly strong one. He has lost three of his last five matches, including a 7-5, 6-3 defeat by Roman Safiullin, while his wins over Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Dalibor Svrcina show that the sequence has not been uniformly poor.

The useful distinction is reliability rather than a large difference in ability. Atmane has won 48% of his outdoor hard-court matches this season against Hijikata’s 56%, but those figures cannot settle the central question of Atmane’s present physical condition.

I think Hijikata is marginally closer to winning, consistent with his narrow favouritism at 1.856. The length of the match is much harder to judge: a fit, settled Atmane could make it close, but two recent retirements leave too much uncertainty for a confident view on the 22.5-game total.

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Aleksandar Kovacevic

The rebuild now needs a disciplined opening match against someone who has already interrupted it. Kovacevic beat Tsitsipas in August, so the favourite has a recent reason to treat every loose service game seriously.

Their head-to-head stands at 1–1, with both meetings on hard courts. Tsitsipas won their Los Cabos quarter-final 7-6(1), 6-3 on 22 February 2024; Kovacevic answered with a 6-3, 7-6(1) win in the Winston-Salem third round on 26 August 2026.

Tsitsipas’s Shanghai recovery against Taylor Fritz is the strongest recent argument in his favour. He turned a nervous start into a 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 victory as his attacking tennis became freer, showing that he could improve while the match was moving against him.

The next match exposed the unfinished work. Daniil Medvedev repeatedly tested his backhand and conceded little pressure on serve in a 6-4, 7-5 win; Tsitsipas still needs his forehand attack to create opportunities before those backhand exchanges become restrictive.

Kovacevic has lost four of his last five matches, but the Shanghai defeat by Matteo Berrettini deserves a little separation from that headline. He won the opening tie-break before losing 7-6(3), 1-6, 4-6, which makes sustaining his level the issue rather than finding it at all.

Tsitsipas has described improved physical freedom and an ambitious finish to the season, although that remains his own assessment rather than medical clearance. To my eye, this is the final service basket at practice: the attacking intent matters only if the routine survives the tired or awkward points.

Rei Sakamoto — Karen Khachanov

The qualifier has already earned more respect than that label alone provides. Sakamoto beat Andrey Rublev in Shanghai and has since negotiated two different tests to reach the Almaty main draw.

He opened qualifying with a 6-2, 6-1 win over Amir Omarkhanov, then recovered to beat Gabriel Diallo 2-6, 6-4, 6-4. The second result matters most to me: Sakamoto has already had to adjust after losing control on these courts.

His Shanghai results also give that confidence substance. After beating Rublev 6-4, 6-4, Sakamoto lost 7-6(6), 6-4 to Alex de Minaur; Khachanov subsequently lost 6-3, 6-4 to the same opponent, whose steadiness prevented him from imposing sustained baseline pressure.

Khachanov has a concrete explanation for his brighter outlook: a return to his old racket helped restore his feel and confidence. His previous title here gives him positive memories, but it does not remove the need to establish control against an opponent already accustomed to the conditions.

I expect the important contest to be Khachanov’s baseline pressure against Sakamoto’s ability to stay composed when pushed back. Sakamoto brings qualifying workload as well as court familiarity, but there is no reliable update establishing residual fatigue.

I lean towards Khachanov, though I expect a competitive match rather than a comfortable dismissal. His −2.5-game handicap is plausible if he establishes pressure early; Sakamoto’s recent results make me less confident about that margin than about Khachanov finding a way through.

Tsitsipas’s Discipline, Sakamoto’s Momentum

I see Tsitsipas’s response to a recent conqueror as the day’s clearest competitive test. Sakamoto offers the strongest challenge to established status, while Atmane’s ability to complete a composed performance remains the most uncertain question.

My emphasis is on the service games that follow setbacks, not just the best passages of attacking tennis. The AI cappers make the concrete picks on the individual match pages; this day’s central distinction is between promising form and the discipline needed to sustain it.