São Paulo Preview, September 16: Badosa’s Test and Ce’s Restart

Rain has left the September 16 schedule split between delayed first-round matches, an interrupted contest and one second-round turnaround. Paula Badosa supplies the star power, but the sharper competitive questions concern rhythm: how quickly Eva Lys can regain control, whether Laura Pigossi can adjust from clay to hard, and whether Teodora Kostovic can reproduce Tuesday’s authority.

The repeated starts and stops place unusual weight on serve routines, warm-up quality and emotional discipline. The rain has shown excellent stamina, which is more than anyone asked of it. These are the five matches I find most compelling:

• 16:00 — Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva — Astra Sharma
• 18:05 — Eva Lys — Gabriela Ce
• 18:30 — Darja Semenistaja — Teodora Kostovic
• 19:00 — Vendula Valdmannova — Laura Pigossi
• 20:30 — Justina Mikulskyte — Paula Badosa Gibert

Times are UTC.

Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva — Astra Sharma

This is a homecoming for 16-year-old Naná Silva and a test of competitive relevance for Sharma. Silva learned the game at Parque Villa-Lobos and has already won a tour-level match on these courts. Sharma brings the broader professional toolkit, including a heavy forehand and a serve that should give her cheap points, but she has lost all five of her hard-court matches this season.

Silva arrives from a US Open junior quarterfinal run in which her decision-making improved from round to round. She was still hitting with ambition, but she became less impatient when the first attack did not finish the point. That discipline matters against Sharma, who can change the ball’s height and make a young power player generate pace from uncomfortable positions.

Sharma’s problem is sustaining her level through the pressure games. Recent defeats have included competitive passages without enough secure holds to turn them into victories. Silva has played only four recorded hard-court matches this year, winning three, so her senior evidence remains thin despite the promise.

I see almost nothing between them. Silva is marginally closer because she has current confidence, familiar conditions and the cleaner first strike, but Sharma can make this awkward if her first-serve percentage holds. A decider is plausible, and the 21.5-game total looks attainable.

Eva Lys — Gabriela Ce

This is not a conventional first-round preview because the match will resume deep in the decider. Lys dominated the opening phase by taking the ball early, but Ce refused to be hurried, stole the second set late and recovered an early break in the third before the rain returned.

The interruption gives Lys physical recovery after a difficult season, but it also gives her a full night to think about a match that had been under control. She arrived saying, “I know I’ve had a difficult year, so expectations are moderate. I want to stay healthy and play as many matches as I can” (TênisBrasil). That is sensible long-term thinking, although a short deciding-set restart rarely rewards a moderate pulse.

Ce returns with the emotional advantage. The Brazilian left-hander has won her last five completed matches, all on clay, and she has used variation and persistence to keep Lys from settling into repeated first-strike patterns. Lys remains the more explosive hard-court player, but she needs immediate depth on return and a reliable second-serve hold. This is the sort of restart coaches rehearse with the practice scoreboard already in the third set: no easing in, no spare service game.

I still make Lys the narrow favourite because she can take time away from Ce on both wings. The restart can go either way, however, and the first two pressure points may decide it. With three sets already required, the 28.5-game total looks reachable if neither player produces an immediate run.

Darja Semenistaja — Teodora Kostovic

Kostovic has the more visible weapon, but Semenistaja has the professional habits that expose loose attacking tennis. Both won on Tuesday and now face a quick second-round turnaround, with Kostovic carrying more emotional residue after beating a home player on centre court.

Semenistaja’s 7-5, 6-4 win over Hayu Kinoshita was built on steadiness in the late games. The Latvian did not dominate, but she kept the rally organised and protected the moments that mattered. Her left-handed patterns can drag Kostovic away from the forehand exchanges she controlled in the first round.

Kostovic beat Victoria Barros 6-2, 6-4 by serving firmly and attacking the return. More importantly, she responded well when Barros raised her aggression and briefly moved ahead in the second set. The 19-year-old did not rush for a spectacular answer; she restored her court position and broke when the pressure was highest.

Vendula Valdmannova — Laura Pigossi

The market gives Valdmannova a clear edge, and the surface explains why. The 18-year-old has won 19 of 25 hard-court matches this season, while Pigossi has lost all three of hers. Valdmannova takes the ball earlier and should be able to challenge Pigossi’s court position before the Brazilian turns the match into a physical grind.

Pigossi’s recent title in Gran Canaria still matters because of how she won it. She recovered after losing a tight first set, increased her physical intensity and controlled the closing exchanges with her backhand. The concern is that the run came on clay. Her subsequent US Open qualifying defeat showed less authority once the points moved at hard-court speed.

Valdmannova also brings useful New York evidence. She came from a set down to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich and then pushed close to the main draw before surrendering an advantage in the final qualifying round. Her task in São Paulo is not to become impatient when Pigossi absorbs the first attack. Pigossi’s crowd support and defensive discipline can make a straightforward matchup feel untidy.

Justina Mikulskyte — Paula Badosa Gibert

Badosa is the leading attraction in the draw and the match is a genuine checkpoint for her body. There is no new injury concern in São Paulo, but her chronic back history remains central to any assessment. She has been clear about the priority: “Today my physical condition is the priority” (ITF).

Her US Open tennis was encouraging. Badosa controlled Daria Kasatkina before rain interrupted her attempt to serve out the match, then returned tight and needed several opportunities before finally closing with an ace. Against Coco Gauff, she struck the ball with greater conviction, broke back late and forced the world No. 4 to finish at full intensity despite losing 6-4, 7-6.

Mikulskyte enters as a lucky loser after falling in the final qualifying round. That route can be liberating because the disappointment has already been processed and the main-draw opportunity feels borrowed. She also owns the stronger numerical hard-court season, with 13 wins from 18 matches compared with Badosa’s 8 from 17, although the quality of opposition is not comparable.

The tactical demand on Badosa is patience. Her serve, heavy backhand and ability to take over from a neutral ball should decide the match, but the long delay may tempt her to force the first strike. Mikulskyte needs to extend rallies, vary the height and make Badosa serve repeatedly under scoreboard pressure.

Badosa’s body, Ce’s nerve and the discipline after rain

The day’s best tennis questions all concern control. Silva must manage excitement, Lys must restart without hesitation, Kostovic must repeat her serving standards, Valdmannova must resist overhitting, and Badosa must trust her body through the pressure games.

I expect the clearest technical edge to belong to Badosa and the strongest surface advantage to Valdmannova. Lys against Ce is the sharpest test of nerve because there is almost no runway left in the match. The AI cappers turn those judgments into concrete picks on the individual match pages, where each matchup receives a specific call.