US Open, September 6: Alcaraz's Wrist, Medvedev's Old Habitat and Tsitsipas Under the Lights

The fourth round of the US Open has a way of separating the stories from the noise, and this Sunday does it with unusual neatness. Carlos Alcaraz has spent a week rebuilding trust in a right wrist that kept him off the tour for months, and now Tommy Paul is the first man in the draw properly equipped to ask hard questions of it. Daniil Medvedev has slipped back into the New York air like a man returning to a flat he never sold, while Frances Tiafoe waits for him with a partisan crowd. And in the night session, Ben Shelton's serve meets a Stefanos Tsitsipas who has lost the opening set of every match here and won anyway.

There is also a quieter door standing open on the other side of the sheet, where Alex Michelsen and Tomas Martin Etcheverry play for the biggest week either has had. Four matches, four different kinds of pressure — I'll take them in the order they start:

18:00 — Tommy Paul — Carlos Alcaraz
18:30 — Alex Michelsen — Tomas Martin Etcheverry
19:00 — Daniil Medvedev — Frances Tiafoe
23:00 — Ben Shelton — Stefanos Tsitsipas

Times are UTC.

Tommy Paul — Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz has come back from tenosynovitis in the right wrist the way careful people come back from anything: one step at a time, checking the ground. Roman Safiullin got a composed 6-4 6-4 6-4. Jaime Faria stole the opening set before Alcaraz shifted gears and turned the afternoon into a four-set fitness session. Against Yibing Wu it was 6-3 6-4 6-1 and visibly freer through the wrist, though he still went back out to hit afterwards because some over-hit forehands had bothered him. "I'm surprised by how I'm feeling and recovering," he said (El País) — relief rather than euphoria, which after that long away sounds about right.

Paul got here by the scenic route. Alexander Bublik took a tight third-set tie-break and Paul looked briefly emptied out, then simplified everything — more returns in play, first ball deep, legs everywhere — and won 6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3. That is the mentally impressive version of Paul, and also the expensive one: five sets in the legs against a man who spent barely two hours on court in his last match. The head-to-head reads like a locked door. Their record shows eight meetings and the five most recent all belong to Alcaraz, including this January's Australian Open fourth round, 7-6(6) 6-4 7-5, where Paul was competitive in every set and still lost all three. Paul called Alcaraz "the test" and added, "I'm going to do my best" (US Open). Honest men make honest quotes.

Paul's route is to make this repetitive rather than spectacular: deep returns, attack the Spaniard's position instead of the lines, and see whether a freshly repaired wrist still likes hitting hard in the third hour. Alcaraz's answer is variety — the drop shot, the sudden change of height, the acceleration that arrives one shot before you expect it. His hard-court numbers this year, 17 wins against two losses, and a 27-3 career record in New York against Paul's 17-10, say what they say.

Alcaraz at 1.199 is honest pricing, and I lean the same way — but not comfortably. Paul at home, in front of this crowd, chasing a barrier that has stopped him at exactly this stage, tends to drag matches into places favourites dislike. I expect Alcaraz in four rather than three, and with that in mind the 35.5 games total looks likelier to go over; the +6.5 for Paul is the side of the handicap I would defend.

Alex Michelsen — Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Somebody here gets the best week of his career, and both men know it. Michelsen has been the tidiest player in this half of the draw: Federico Cina went 6-4 6-1 6-0, Brandon Nakashima was read like an old book at 6-3 6-4 6-4, and Daniel Merida was close for a set before Michelsen's heavier ball took his options away, 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3. Three matches, no long ones, no scrambling. "It's big for my confidence. I'm going to try to take that and run with it," he said after Nakashima (US Open).

Etcheverry came to New York off a grim North American swing — beaten by Nuno Borges, beaten by Terence Atmane — and has rediscovered his hard-court first strike out of nowhere. Vit Kopriva was finished off 6-3 6-4 6-0, Jacob Fearnley pushed back after rain but lost 6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3, and the all-Argentine meeting with Mariano Navone was the calmest of the three, 6-4 6-4 6-3, with Etcheverry firmer on the points that matter. Still, his year on hard courts reads 5-8 while Michelsen's reads 21-9, and that gap is the shape of the match: the American takes time away with flat, early contact, the Argentine wants the ball high into the backhand shoulder and the rallies long. They have never played, so there are no old scars to lean on.

Michelsen is the better player on this surface and the fresher one, and at 1.339 I understand the market. What I do not quite trust is the -4.5 handicap: Etcheverry serves big, holds a 196cm frame together well in tight sets, and a 22-year-old walking into his first genuine opportunity at a major sometimes overplays for a set while he works out what is happening. Michelsen in four, with the underdog's +4.5 the safer end of it.

Daniil Medvedev — Frances Tiafoe

Medvedev in New York is a man in his natural climate, and it shows. Hugo Gaston could not disturb his depth, Sebastian Gorzny competed late and lost 6-1 6-3 7-5, and when Arthur Rinderknech broke first it seemed only to annoy him into near-perfection — 6-4 6-4 6-4, the Frenchman's belief draining away rally by rally. Nine losses in 45 matches at this tournament is a relationship, not a run of form, and a 21-7 hard-court year says the legs are underneath him.

Tiafoe's fortnight started on the edge. Martin Damm's left-handed power had him two sets to one down before he escaped 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4 late at night; Rei Sakamoto was tidier work; then came his best tennis of the week against Valentin Vacherot, 6-4 6-2 6-4, with angled forehands and well-chosen trips to the net. The hand cyst that forced his Montreal retirement has not resurfaced, and he sounds like a man who has remembered why he loves this place: "Friday night at the US Open, it's pretty easy to be locked in," he said, promising the Armstrong crowd he would be back on Sunday (US Open).

The trouble is the matchup, and their history spells it out. Of their eight meetings, the recent record leans heavily Medvedev's way — including this January in Brisbane, 6-3 6-2, and, more painfully, the 2020 US Open fourth round, 6-4 6-1 6-0. Tiafoe's one win on record came at the 2024 Laver Cup indoors. Medvedev stands deep, absorbs the first strike, passes anyone who comes forward speculatively, and hands over no usable pace at all. Tiafoe has to be unpredictable on purpose: body serves, short angles, the odd serve-and-volley, forehand attacks before the Russian sets his depth. The official preview called it "not a swell matchup for the American" (US Open), and I cannot argue.

Medvedev at 1.642 is where I sit, though the crowd is a real variable rather than a decoration — if Tiafoe steals an early set, the stadium starts playing too. I expect a long, claustrophobic four-setter with several tie-breaks in it, which makes over 39.5 games the more attractive half of the total, and the -2.5 handicap for Medvedev something closer to a coin toss than a comfort.

Ben Shelton — Stefanos Tsitsipas

Shelton has reached this round the hard way three times over. Tallon Griekspoor took the first set 6-1 before Shelton found his serve and turned it round. Hubert Hurkacz dragged him to 6-3 5-7 7-6(3) 7-5. Then Denis Shapovalov made him work late into the night for 7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4, and Shelton's own verdict was refreshingly free of spin: "Not an easy night. Nowhere near my best. I got through it" (US Open). Four titles this season and a left-handed serve that pulls right-handers off the court — but also no straight-set win in this tournament and a lot of tennis in the tank.

Tsitsipas has done something stranger and, to my eye, more interesting. He has dropped the first set in all three matches and won all three: Arthur Fils 4-6 7-6(3) 6-1 6-4, Lloyd Harris 6-7(1) 6-3 7-6(4) 6-4, and Jiri Lehecka 2-6 6-1 7-6(3) 6-1, the last of them finishing with Tsitsipas playing free tennis while his opponent came apart. This is his first fourth round in New York, arriving after the split from his father as coach and the renewed work with Patrick Mouratoglou. He describes his method with the cheerfulness of a pessimist: "preparing for the worst-case scenario in my mind before I go out onto the battlefield" (US Open). Judging by the last week, the battlefield agrees with him.

They have met once, in the second round at Cincinnati in 2023, and Tsitsipas won it 7-6(3) 7-6(2) — two tie-breaks, which is exactly the currency this match is likely to trade in. Shelton's lefty serve is built to hunt that one-handed backhand and open the court for his forehand; Tsitsipas has been returning from deep, varying the shape of his forehand and coming forward with intent, and his job is to make Shelton volley from awkward spots rather than comfortable ones. The mutual compliments were duly exchanged — Tsitsipas noting Shelton has "improved a lot since last time I played him" and Shelton replying that the Greek is "playing great" (US Open). Both are telling the truth, which is rarer than it sounds.

This is the murkiest match of the day for me. Shelton at 1.399 has the serve, the crowd and the night session; Tsitsipas at 3.06 has the only previous meeting, the momentum of three comebacks and less cumulative damage from his last match. It hinges on emotional control when a set turns — both men rush at exactly the wrong moment — and on whether Shelton can hold serve cheaply enough to stay out of long games. I think it goes at least four sets and probably past the 41.5 games line; picking a winner here would be guessing dressed up as analysis.

A wrist, a crowd and a Greek who likes starting badly

The three questions I care about today are simple ones. Can Alcaraz's wrist survive an opponent who will make him hit heavy forehands for three hours instead of twenty minutes? Can Tiafoe make Armstrong loud before Medvedev quietens it? And can Tsitsipas keep winning matches he has already half-lost, this time against a serve that does not offer second chances? Michelsen and Etcheverry get less attention and more at stake than any of them, which is usually how breakthroughs happen.

I would give the early slot to Paul and Alcaraz and stay up for Shelton and Tsitsipas, because those two are the ones most likely to change what we think we know by Monday morning. As for the specific numbers on each of these matches, the AI cappers handle that on the individual match pages, and they are considerably more decisive about it than I am.