US Open September 3: Monfils’ farewell question and Zverev’s recovery test

The US Open men’s second round on September 3 brings together five very different tests of discipline. Felix Auger-Aliassime faces heavyweight resistance, Lorenzo Musetti must protect a healthy spell, and Alexei Popyrin has another examination of his rebuilt competitive mindset.

The late matches carry the strongest physical questions. Gael Monfils may be playing his final Grand Slam match, while Alexander Zverev returns after a first round that lasted almost five hours. These are the five matches I would put at the centre of the day:

15:00 — Felix Auger-Aliassime — Karen Khachanov
16:30 — Dane Sweeny — Lorenzo Musetti
18:00 — Alexei Popyrin — Alejandro Tabilo
23:00 — Gael Monfils — Learner Tien
00:30 — Alexander Zverev — Quentin Halys

Times are UTC.

Felix Auger-Aliassime — Karen Khachanov

This is a second-round match with second-week weight. Auger-Aliassime has the higher ranking and the stronger 2026 hard-court record, but Khachanov’s straight-sets dismissal of Roman Burruchaga was considerably cleaner than the Canadian’s uneven four-set win over Rinky Hijikata.

Auger-Aliassime lost the second set to Hijikata and had to rebuild his first-strike patterns rather than simply serving through the afternoon. That response mattered. His forehand becomes decisive when he takes the ball early, but his neutral rally tolerance will be tested by Khachanov’s deep, direct hitting into the backhand wing.

The head-to-head is level at two wins each. Their hard-court meetings are also split: Khachanov won in Montreal in 2019, while Auger-Aliassime came through 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in Cincinnati in 2021. Khachanov took their latest match 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 on the Halle grass in June 2025, although the quicker surface gave his serve more protection than it should receive here.

Auger-Aliassime says New York now leaves him “more grounded, more relaxed” (US Open). The important evidence will come after a poor return game or a loose service game. A basket of second serves after practice would tell the same story: the technical work only counts when the legs and routine hold under pressure.

I think Auger-Aliassime is closer to the win because he moves better and creates more forehand pressure from inside the baseline. Khachanov has enough serve and weight of shot to extend it, so the 34.5-game total looks beatable in what could become a four- or five-set contest.

Dane Sweeny — Lorenzo Musetti

Sweeny’s breakthrough win over Corentin Moutet was built on composure rather than a sudden increase in firepower. He recovered from a poor start, stayed orderly while Moutet became unsettled and led 7-6, 6-4, 3-0 when the Frenchman retired.

The concern is Sweeny’s forearm, which was iced because repeated dives have caused fluid to collect around the same area. Musetti has dealt with more serious interruptions this season, including a rectus-femoris injury, but his straight-sets win over Arthur Fery suggested that his movement and variety are available again. Musetti said that “attitude was the key to winning” (Sky Sport Italia), and that is an important standard after so many interrupted returns.

There is no previous meeting. Musetti can change the height of the rally with topspin, bring in the slice and force the 170-centimetre Sweeny to strike repeatedly outside his preferred zone. Sweeny needs to take the ball early and keep Musetti from settling behind the baseline.

I expect Musetti to win, although a 9.5-game handicap demands a severe scoreline. The 28.5-game total looks low enough for Sweeny’s speed and competitive discipline to keep it in range even if Musetti advances in straight sets.

Alexei Popyrin — Alejandro Tabilo

Popyrin’s four-set recovery against Grigor Dimitrov was more revealing than a routine win would have been. He lost the opening set, steadied his serve and refused to let early disappointment control the remaining three sets.

That response fits Popyrin’s attempt to separate results from personal worth. “I am trying not to associate my results with how I feel as a person,” he said before the match (Emol). The scoreboard does not issue certificates for emotional growth, but pressure games tend to reveal whether the work is real.

Tabilo arrives with the steadier hard-court season and beat Yannick Hanfmann in four sets. His left-handed serve can stretch Popyrin on the backhand return, while his forehand can keep the Australian from setting his feet for the first strike. Popyrin won their only previous meeting 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 at Roland Garros in 2025, but clay gives limited guidance for this faster exchange.

I make Tabilo the slightly safer player because his patterns are less dependent on immediate acceleration. Popyrin has the higher destructive ceiling, however, and this can turn on two or three pressure games; a four-set match and more than 40.5 games are plausible, but the picture is too volatile for a firm conclusion.

Gael Monfils — Learner Tien

The emotional occasion belongs to Monfils, but the practical advantages belong to Tien. Monfils has already played mixed doubles and needed four sets in his singles opener, while Tien dispatched Nuno Borges 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 with little wasted motion.

Monfils’ win over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo improved as it went. He looked mistimed in the opening set, found a calmer service rhythm early in the second and then allowed his defence and shotmaking to take over. The final three sets were increasingly one-sided, which reduced the physical cost, but recovery at 40 remains part of every tactical decision.

Tien has already solved this problem once. He beat Monfils 6-3, 0-6, 6-3 in Montreal in August, recovering after the veteran produced a spectacular middle set. The young left-hander’s compact strokes, anticipation and willingness to keep the ball in play can force Monfils to generate his own pace for long periods.

Monfils said his airborne winners now produce “more happiness, more joy for me” (US Open). That freedom is dangerous because he can change the atmosphere with one return game. His best plan is to attack Tien’s second serve, shorten points at net and prevent the match from becoming a steady physical audit.

I expect Tien to win because his rally discipline and fresher legs address the central demands of the matchup. If he refuses to be distracted by Monfils’ changes of pace and the crowd’s energy, the 6.5-game handicap should be within reach.

Alexander Zverev — Quentin Halys

Zverev’s level is not the first question here. Recovery is. His five-set escape against Lorenzo Sonego lasted almost five hours and finished close to two in the morning, leaving a short turnaround against an opponent who has had an extra day to prepare.

Sonego attacked Zverev’s second serve, moved forward and came close to eliminating him late in the fourth set. Zverev’s strongest quality was his refusal to panic. He broke back when the match was nearly gone and then accepted the opening when Sonego’s accuracy finally dropped.

Zverev called it an “incredible battle, a lot of ups and downs” (US Open). Such a win can restore belief, but it cannot replace sleep or remove heaviness from the legs. Halys must test that recovery immediately with short angles, firm first serves and forward movement.

The matchup itself favours Zverev. He has beaten Halys twice in 2026, including a 7-6, 7-6 hard-court win in Miami and a four-set victory at Roland Garros. Halys served well enough to keep the Miami meeting level until both tie-breaks, which is relevant when Zverev may prefer shorter return games early.

Halys beat Facundo Diaz Acosta in four sets after failing to close a third-set tie-break. His reset in the fourth was a good sign. He cannot afford long backhand exchanges here, because Zverev owns the more stable stroke and the greater defensive reach.

I still expect Zverev to advance, but a routine score would require an unusually clean physical recovery. Halys at +5.5 games looks competitive, and the 37.5-game total can be cleared if he protects his serve through the opening two sets.

Monfils’ emotion and Zverev’s legs shape the night

The day’s main questions concern control under strain. Auger-Aliassime must avoid rushing neutral balls, Popyrin must keep his response to mistakes stable, Monfils must manage his energy, and Zverev must prove that recovery has matched relief.

I would place the greatest sporting weight on Monfils against Tien and Zverev against Halys, although Auger-Aliassime against Khachanov may produce the best sustained ball-striking. The concrete picks belong to the AI cappers on the individual match pages, where each of these contests receives a specific call.