US Open, September 2: Shelton’s power test and Alcaraz’s next step

September 2 brings the second round of the US Open men’s singles draw, with several favorites carrying more questions than their rankings suggest. Ben Shelton must control a severe serving test, Mariano Navone has to recover from the win of his life, and Carlos Alcaraz continues to measure the strength of his right wrist.

The younger Americans add another layer. Brandon Nakashima and Alex Michelsen meet with no tactical secrets between them, while qualifier Rei Sakamoto takes his fearless week into a match with Frances Tiafoe. These are the five matches I find most compelling:

15:00 — Brandon Nakashima — Alex Michelsen
17:00 — Ben Shelton — Hubert Hurkacz
18:30 — Matteo Berrettini — Mariano Navone
23:00 — Rei Sakamoto — Frances Tiafoe
01:00 — Jaime Faria — Carlos Alcaraz

Times are UTC.

Brandon Nakashima — Alex Michelsen

Nakashima’s order meets Michelsen’s disruption in their first tour-level meeting. Both Americans were emphatic in the opening round, but Nakashima’s 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 defeat of Sebastian Baez was the cleaner statement. He took the ball early, protected his court position and never let Baez establish the long exchanges he wanted.

Nakashima has won 21 of 30 hard-court matches this season, including recent victories over Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz and Nuno Borges. His forehand has become a more deliberate first strike, and his movement forward no longer looks like an emergency measure. Michelsen owns the same 21-9 hard-court record this year, although his summer was interrupted by an oblique injury before he rebuilt his rhythm at Challenger level.

The tactical issue is who controls the first forehand. Nakashima will want stable patterns and repeated pressure on Michelsen’s movement. Michelsen needs changes of height, direction and pace because a tidy baseline match favors the more disciplined ball-striker. Their familiarity may make the opening set tense, but Nakashima has recently handled pressure games with greater clarity.

I think Nakashima is closer to the win because his return position and rally tolerance are more dependable. Michelsen can make the geometry awkward, but Nakashima should create enough repeatable pressure for the -3.5-game handicap to hold.

Ben Shelton — Hubert Hurkacz

This is the day’s sharpest first-strike contest. Shelton has the stronger recent season and more ways to change the match, but Hurkacz arrives on a five-match winning run with a serve capable of reducing three hours of tennis to six important points.

Shelton’s opening round exposed both sides of his game. He lost the first set 6-1 to Tallon Griekspoor while over-hitting and rushing his patterns, then recovered to win in four after locating his forehand and trusting the serve-plus-one combination. As Shelton admitted, “I found things really difficult in the first set tonight. Knowing that I was going to find my game as it goes was a big part of it tonight” (US Open).

Hurkacz also dropped a set in the first round before pulling away from Damir Dzumhur. His competitive level is returning after right-knee surgery, but physical durability remains relevant after a later muscle problem forced him out at Wimbledon. Shelton should make him defend laterally with the left-handed serve rather than offering a sequence of flat, central exchanges.

The neglected battle is Shelton’s backhand discipline. Hurkacz will keep directing neutral balls there and wait for Shelton to run around too early. It has the look of a return drill on a practice court: one man is trying to establish rhythm, while the server keeps removing the ball before the exercise begins. The tie-break will not accept excuses; it rarely has.

There is no previous meeting, so adjustment speed matters. Shelton feeds on emotional acceleration, whereas Hurkacz prefers to keep the match quiet and procedural. If Shelton handles his early service games without forcing the forehand, his movement and broader attacking range should eventually tell.

I expect Shelton to win, but not quickly. Hurkacz is serving well enough to protect long passages of the match, and the total over 40.5 games looks reachable if at least one set reaches a tie-break.

Matteo Berrettini — Mariano Navone

Navone has already produced the defining upset of the tournament, but the second assignment may be harder to manage emotionally. His five-set victory over Novak Djokovic demanded patience, speed and clear thinking once Djokovic’s physical condition deteriorated. Now Navone must recover and solve a completely different problem.

Berrettini beat Stan Wawrinka 7-6, 7-6, 6-0 without losing his structure in two tight sets. His backhand slice broke Wawrinka’s rhythm, while his serve and forehand remained available in the pressure games. Berrettini is also the fresher player, which matters against an opponent coming off a long and emotionally exhausting night.

The head-to-head stands 3-1 to Berrettini, but the latest meeting belongs to Navone. On August 3 in Montreal, Navone won 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 on hard courts. That result carries more weight here than Berrettini’s three clay-court victories because it showed that Navone can absorb the Italian’s first strike on this surface and still make him play another ball.

Navone’s hard-court improvement is real: he has won 10 of 18 matches on the surface this season after winning only five of 17 last year. His task is to find Berrettini’s backhand without feeding the slice at a comfortable height, then force the forehand to strike while moving. Berrettini must serve with precision and accept that apparent winners may return.

I see Berrettini as the narrow favorite because of freshness and the natural weight of his hard-court game, but this is not a secure matchup. Navone has already beaten him on this surface, and the match can pass 38.5 games if the Argentine recovers well enough to extend Berrettini through four sets.

Rei Sakamoto — Frances Tiafoe

Sakamoto enters with a qualifier’s freedom and a veteran’s workload. He has come through qualifying, handled the emotion of defeating Kei Nishikori and then survived Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 in the fifth set after a rain interruption. His serve and attacking intent held up late, but the accumulated mileage is substantial.

Tiafoe also needed five sets in the opening round. Martin Damm pushed him behind with full-power aggression before Tiafoe reduced his errors and waited for a usable opening. “You can’t win the tournament in the first round, but you can for sure lose it, so I’m happy to see another day,” he said afterward (ATP).

Tiafoe’s advantage is not simply athleticism. He can block the return, use the slice and alter his court position, forcing Sakamoto to generate pace from uncomfortable balls. Sakamoto wants a direct serving contest. If Tiafoe plays at one speed, he allows the qualifier to remain fearless; if he changes the visual picture, he can expose tired legs and uncertain transition play.

I expect Tiafoe to settle earlier than he did against Damm and make Sakamoto defend after the first attack. The American is closer to a controlled four-set win, and the -5.5-game handicap looks attainable if he maintains his return discipline.

Jaime Faria — Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz’s opening victory answered the first question about his comeback but not the whole examination. Playing his first singles tournament since right-wrist tenosynovitis forced a lengthy absence, he defeated Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 without a visible physical setback. The forehand loosened as the match developed, although the serve and movement forward initially carried some caution.

“I didn’t know how I would play a best-of-five match, but physically I felt very good,” Alcaraz said after the win (AS). That is encouraging, but repeated best-of-five loading remains the important test. His 17-2 hard-court record this season describes the level; the wrist determines how freely that level can appear.

Faria has enough recent evidence to believe he can resist. He beat Shelton in straight sets earlier in the summer and recovered from losing a two-set lead against Jenson Brooksby in the first round, taking the decider 6-2. That response mattered because a similar collapse had beaten him at Roland Garros. It also cost him considerable energy.

Faria needs deep returns through the middle and disciplined serving. He cannot chase Alcaraz’s spectacular angles without opening the court first. Alcaraz, meanwhile, should use height, drop shots and changes of pace to stop Faria settling into a straight-line baseline contest. The relevant indicators are his willingness to accelerate the forehand repeatedly and serve with full intent under pressure.

I expect Alcaraz to win in straight sets or a controlled four. Faria can make individual sets competitive, but his five-set workload and Alcaraz’s variety point toward the favorite covering the -6.5-game handicap.

Power, recovery and the discipline between them

Shelton against Hurkacz offers the pure serving contest, but Navone’s recovery may be the day’s decisive human question. Alcaraz’s wrist remains the larger tournament issue, and every forceful forehand or committed second serve adds useful evidence.

I would give most attention to how the favorites handle the ordinary games: the first hold after a lost set, the second serve at break point and the return game immediately after missing an opportunity. Those moments usually expose fitness and conviction before the score makes the problem obvious. The AI cappers take the final step with concrete picks on the individual match pages, where each matchup receives a more specific call.