US Open Women’s Preview, September 1: Rybakina’s Ankle and Badosa’s Return

September 1 completes the women’s first round at the US Open. Elena Rybakina brings an injury question into a mismatch on paper, Paula Badosa returns without a North American tune-up, and Alina Korneeva gets an immediate measure of her progress against Madison Keys.

The most revealing matches are not necessarily the closest ones. Movement, second-serve discipline and composure in the pressure games should separate these five contests:

15:00 — Thea Frodin — Elena Rybakina
15:30 — Madison Keys — Alina Korneeva
16:30 — Daria Kasatkina — Paula Badosa
17:00 — Mirra Andreeva — Janice Tjen
01:00 — Mary Stoiana — Alexandra Eala

Times are UTC.

Thea Frodin — Elena Rybakina

The difference in established level is enormous, but Rybakina’s left ankle makes this more than a ceremonial major debut for Frodin. Rybakina retired against Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati, spent a week off court and withdrew from the US Open mixed doubles. She admitted that “for a couple of days, it was painful to even walk” (US Open).

Before the injury, Rybakina had won 29 of 36 hard-court matches this season. Her serve and compact first strike should overwhelm a player ranked outside the top 500 if she can set her feet normally. The opening two return games will resemble a lateral-movement drill after a week off: plant, brake, recover, repeat.

Frodin has only a small senior sample, although five wins from eight hard-court matches this year suggest that she is not helpless on the surface. She arrives through the American junior pathway and says the occasion brings “mostly just excitement” rather than nerves (WTA). Her sensible route is to return deep, change direction and make Rybakina defend one more ball than she wants.

I expect Rybakina to win if her movement is functional, but the seven-game handicap asks for physical certainty that is not available. Frodin at +7 has some appeal because the favourite may manage her workload rather than chase a severe scoreline. The scoreboard, regrettably, does not issue medical exemptions.

Madison Keys — Alina Korneeva

Keys has the larger serve and the heavier forehand, but Korneeva is built to make an attacker prove the point twice. That matters because Keys’ Cincinnati defeat to Sara Bejlek turned when the younger player absorbed the first strike and forced her to hit an additional attacking ball.

Korneeva’s Toronto run established that her defence is not passive. She beat Emma Navarro 6-2, 6-2 and Iva Jovic 6-3, 6-4 by redirecting pace, holding her court position and moving forward when the short ball arrived. Cori Gauff praised both her hands and her composure, saying, “She doesn’t get upset, even when she wasn’t playing great at some moments” (US Open).

Keys has won 12 of 20 hard-court matches this year, while Korneeva has taken 17 of 23. Those records came against different levels of opposition, but Korneeva’s recent wins remove any assumption that a top-30 ball automatically rushes her. The unexplained Cincinnati walkover is the one unresolved physical detail.

The first-set service pattern is decisive. Clean holds and short second serves from Keys should keep Korneeva behind the baseline. Repeated deuce games will tighten Keys’ shot selection and bring Korneeva’s legs into the match.

I think Keys is closer to the win, but a routine straight-sets result looks less likely than the price suggests. Korneeva can extend this beyond the 21-game total, especially if she protects her own second serve well enough to reach a decider.

Daria Kasatkina — Paula Badosa

This is a first round between two players who know elite level and currently distrust different parts of their games. Kasatkina has recent hard-court repetition but is rebuilding after a hip problem. Badosa has the cleaner natural power, yet she has not competed since Hamburg and missed the entire North American lead-up.

Kasatkina’s summer produced difficult but useful matches. She recovered from a dreadful start to beat Xinyu Wang 1-6, 7-6, 7-5, then pushed Rybakina through three sets. Against Zeynep Sonmez, however, she failed to close after taking the first set 6-2 and lost the decider 6-3. Her variation remains effective; conviction near the finish is less dependable.

Badosa’s latest matches were all on clay, including a three-hour type of contest against Mayar Sherif that ended 6-7, 7-6, 4-6. She says, “It is never easy to stop and come back, but I have done this many times, so I am used to it” (AS). Experience helps with the routine, but it cannot provide hard-court timing or guarantee trust in the body.

They have met seven times. Kasatkina won their 2025 Roland Garros match 6-1, 7-5 and advanced from the 2024 Ningbo semifinal when Badosa retired at 4-6. Badosa won their 2024 Wimbledon meeting 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, while Kasatkina took their listed hard-court match in San Jose in 2022 by 6-2, 6-4. The recent pattern favours Kasatkina’s ability to change height and rhythm, but Badosa can shorten every argument if her first strike is clean.

To my eye, Kasatkina is marginally closer because she has current hard-court timing and the right patterns for an opponent returning cold. The picture remains murky because neither player has earned complete physical trust. A long match is plausible, and the total above 21.5 games looks reachable if Badosa serves well enough to stay out of extended defensive sequences.

Mirra Andreeva — Janice Tjen

An immediate rematch gives Tjen more useful information than a month of general preparation. Andreeva beat her 6-1, 7-6 in Cincinnati, but the score shows the tactical change: Tjen was overwhelmed at first, then absorbed the pace better and made the favourite finish under pressure.

Andreeva reads the rally earlier and changes direction without losing balance. She has won 17 of 25 hard-court matches this season, although her latest result was a 6-4, 0-6, 2-6 loss to Marta Kostyuk. That collapse is a reminder that her level can still fall quickly when the first plan stops working.

Tjen arrives with more travel and match load after playing in Monterrey, where she recovered to beat Dayana Yastremska before losing to Yuliia Starodubtseva. Her coach has stressed the need to operate behind the baseline at a higher tempo and make clearer decisions between using forehand variation and attacking immediately. Those are precisely the choices Andreeva forces by taking time away.

Andreeva has also been active in the US Open mixed doubles, but her mood sounds light rather than burdened. “For now, all I feel is excitement, and just happiness to be here and be able to play,” she said (US Open).

I expect Andreeva to win because she owns the better return game and the cleaner transition from defence to attack. Tjen’s improvement during their Cincinnati match makes +5.5 games more convincing than another one-sided score, and the 19-game total can be cleared if she begins with the discipline she found in that second set.

Mary Stoiana — Alexandra Eala

Eala enters as the established player rather than the disruptive newcomer. Her hard-court season includes 22 wins from 32 matches, a Washington title and competitive three-set contests against stronger opposition. The task now is to control expectations against an American qualifier who already knows the courts.

Stoiana came through three qualifying rounds. She beat Harmony Tan in straight sets, recovered from losing the opener against Katie Swan and then edged Yue Yuan 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. That run gives her match rhythm and evidence that she can recover after momentum turns, although it also adds physical mileage.

Eala leads their head-to-head after winning 7-5, 6-2 on a hard court in Landisville in 2024. Her left-handed serve and early contact should expose Stoiana’s court position, particularly when the American leaves a second serve in the middle of the box. Eala’s main responsibility is to avoid becoming passive when the crowd gives Stoiana energy.

I expect Eala to win in straight sets. Stoiana can make the opening set competitive, but Eala’s return position and greater experience against elite pace should create separation. If she keeps attacking the second serve instead of protecting the lead, the five-game handicap looks manageable.

Rybakina’s movement and the discipline of the favourites

Rybakina’s ankle is the day’s largest physical question, while Badosa’s timing may determine its most balanced match. Keys and Andreeva face a different examination: both have enough power and skill to lead, but neither can afford loose service games against opponents who keep asking for another shot.

I expect the best tennis to come where the favourites must solve resistance rather than simply produce pace. The AI cappers’ concrete picks are available on the individual match pages, where the lines and final selections are treated specifically; here, the broader verdict is that discipline under pressure should matter more than reputation.