US Open Women’s Preview, 31 August 2026: Comebacks Face Immediate Tests

The US Open women’s first round begins on 31 August with several leading names carrying questions that ranking alone cannot answer. Qinwen Zheng and Karolina Muchova return from medical interruptions, Aryna Sabalenka must restore her usual discipline, and Sloane Stephens is still rebuilding trust in her right foot.

The day has the feel of a return-to-play drill: the strokes are familiar, but the body and scoreboard decide whether the work has held. I have five matches at the center of it:

• 15:00 — Qinwen Zheng — Kristina Liutova
• 15:00 — Sinja Kraus — Karolina Muchova
• 15:30 — Aryna Sabalenka — Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
• 17:00 — Ashlyn Krueger — Amanda Anisimova
• 18:30 — Sloane Stephens — Clara Tauson

Times are UTC.

Qinwen Zheng — Kristina Liutova

Zheng has already completed three qualifying matches, but this is not a routine first round for an Olympic champion. Right-elbow surgery removed her from last year’s US Open and this season’s Australian Open, and her serve has not yet recovered its old reliability. “When you come back from injury, it’s never totally pain-free,” Zheng said earlier in the process (WTA).

The encouraging detail was Zheng’s response in the qualifying final. After losing the second set to Elena Pridankina, she did not allow one poor passage to contaminate the decider and won it 6-0. Her first serve and forehand remain too heavy for most players around this ranking range, but repeated double faults give Liutova an obvious route into the return games.

Liutova is 16, yet her recent record carries more weight than the novelty of her debut. She has won 28 of 31 hard-court matches this season and came through three qualifying rounds, including two three-set contests. Her habit is to lower the emotional temperature when behind, keep the ball in play and make the opponent solve the same problem again.

There is no previous meeting, and the matchup hinges on Zheng’s second serve. If Zheng protects it, her first strike should control the court. If she starts chasing quick winners to compensate for an uncertain delivery, Liutova has the composure to extend this into a decider. I think Zheng is slightly closer to the win, but the over 21.5 games looks entirely reachable in the most unsettled match of the early schedule.

Sinja Kraus — Karolina Muchova

Muchova has already lifted the mixed doubles trophy in New York, which confirms that her hands, anticipation and competitive instincts are sharp after a post-Wimbledon procedure. It does not confirm that her body is ready for a long singles match with repeated changes of direction.

Her 18-4 hard-court record this season explains the short price. Muchova can move Kraus with slice, disguise the drop shot and finish at net before the Austrian settles into predictable baseline patterns. Kraus has lost three of her past five matches, and Stephens recently beat her by making her generate pace from neutral positions.

Kraus still has a useful assignment: play deep through the middle, lengthen service games and make Muchova stop and restart. Muchova said after the mixed doubles title, “I wasn’t really expecting to be standing here tonight” (ATP). Singles will ask a less celebratory question about her legs.

Aryna Sabalenka — Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

Sabalenka begins her attempt at a third consecutive US Open title without the commanding summer form normally attached to her hard-court campaigns. Her Cincinnati loss to Sara Bejlek was not a physical failure. It was a discipline failure: Sabalenka attacked too early, became frustrated by one more retrieved ball and could not serve out the pressure passages cleanly.

The broader evidence remains formidable. Sabalenka has won 27 of 30 hard-court matches this season, while Osorio has lost four of her past five. Sabalenka also leads their head-to-head 2-0, winning 6-0, 6-3 at Wimbledon in 2021 and 6-4, 7-5 on Madrid clay in 2023. Neither meeting came on hard, but both showed how severely Sabalenka can compress Osorio’s time.

Osorio must change the strike zone with height and spin, then force Sabalenka to hit the third attacking ball rather than the first. Sabalenka enjoys the Arthur Ashe Stadium atmosphere and has said, “If they cheer for you, this is the best feeling I have ever experienced in the big stadiums” (US Open). The scoreboard, as ever, grants no medical exemptions and no historical ones either.

Ashlyn Krueger — Amanda Anisimova

Anisimova enters on her birthday and returns to the major where she reached last year’s final. That combination brings confidence and obligation in equal measure, but her Cincinnati form was reassuring. She beat Linda Noskova 6-1, 6-4 and pushed Jessica Pegula to a deciding tie-break after recovering from deficits.

Anisimova’s key improvement was her willingness to construct before changing direction. “I feel like I found some rhythm on the court again,” she said after a wrist problem interrupted her season (The Guardian). Her backhand remains the cleanest first-strike weapon in this matchup, especially when she receives a second serve that sits in the middle of the box.

Krueger has the height and serve to prevent a simple rout, but she has won only eight of 17 hard-court matches this year. Her ankle retirement in Washington is no longer reported as an active issue, though her recent 4-6, 4-6 loss to Julia Grabher left questions about both the serve routine and her ability to reset after a break.

Anisimova won their only previous meeting 6-2, 7-6 in San Jose in 2022. Krueger must avoid flat, stationary exchanges and make Anisimova defend on the run. Otherwise, Anisimova will take the ball early and remove the space before Krueger can use her reach.

Sloane Stephens — Clara Tauson

Stephens is not trying to recreate 2017 by force. She is trying to prove that her movement and competitive habits can survive a full match after a right-foot stress fracture. Her Cincinnati wins over Kraus and Anastasia Potapova showed better patience, but she failed to close important passages against Marta Kostyuk and then lost a lead against Mananchaya Sawangkaew.

“I’m just trying to prove to myself that I still got it,” Stephens said during the comeback (Roland-Garros). The useful sign is that recent defeats have not looked like physical shutdowns. The concern is that Stephens is still only 10-10 on hard courts this season and cannot afford passive defense against Tauson’s forehand.

Tauson arrives from Monterrey after beating Ekaterina Alexandrova in three sets before losing to Diane Parry. She has said that her body feels fine, but the travel and accumulated load matter against an opponent who can make every attacking decision feel slightly late. Stephens will try to vary depth and expose Tauson’s impatience; Tauson will try to shorten the evening before that pattern develops.

There is no head-to-head evidence, and both players carry enough physical uncertainty to keep the picture murky. I think Tauson is marginally closer because of her weight of shot, but Stephens can stay within +4 if she trusts the repaired foot and defends aggressively. The over 21 games fits a match that could turn on one long service game or require a decider.

Five matches, four fitness tests and one champion under pressure

Zheng’s second serve and Muchova’s movement are the clearest early indicators, while Sabalenka’s shot selection will show whether Cincinnati was a warning or merely a poor afternoon. Anisimova has the strongest recent attacking form, but her pressure games against Krueger will matter more than the easy holds.

I expect the best tension from Zheng against Liutova and Stephens against Tauson because neither matchup offers complete physical certainty. The AI cappers handle the concrete selections on the individual match pages, where the totals and handicaps receive the specific treatment.