Barranquilla semifinals: control under pressure on September 12

The Barranquilla semifinals on September 12 bring together four players who have reached the same stage by very different routes. Claire Liu and Anna Blinkova have advanced without dropping a set, while Leolia Jeanjean and Elsa Jacquemot have already had to repair matches after losing control.

Both contests should be decided by discipline rather than outright firepower. Liu and Blinkova have looked fresher, but Jeanjean and Jacquemot have spent the week proving that a difficult passage does not have to become a defeat. These are the two matches I have circled:

21:00 — Leolia Jeanjean — Claire Liu
22:30 — Elsa Jacquemot — Anna Blinkova

Times are UTC.

Leolia Jeanjean — Claire Liu

Liu has produced the most orderly run in this half of the draw. Her opening sets have required adjustment, but her level has risen once she has established court position. She followed a competitive 7-5 first set against Xiaodi You with a 6-0 second, controlled Varvara Lepchenko 6-3, 6-3, and then accelerated past Kaitlin Quevedo after another close opening set.

That pattern matters because Liu wants to take the ball early and control the centre. Her own description is precise: “I'm just trying to be aggressive. Trying to be in control of as many points as possible” (Roland-Garros). The important word is control. Liu is most effective when aggression means owning the next ball, not trying to end every rally with the first strike.

Jeanjean will try to make the match less tidy. She survived a three-set contest with Julieta Pareja and then beat Carol Young Suh Lee 6-1, 7-6, holding her nerve when the quarterfinal became much tighter. Her recent US Open run carried the same theme: she managed an interruption and a set point against Arantxa Rus, then took a set from Anastasia Potapova before losing the decider.

The Frenchwoman has played more hard-court tennis this season but has won only nine of 22 matches on the surface, while Liu has won seven of 12. There is no previous meeting to clarify the matchup. To my eye, Jeanjean’s route is to vary the height, keep the neutral ball deep and make Liu generate pace from less comfortable positions. This has the feel of a training drill in which one player must hold the baseline while the other keeps changing the feed.

The pressure points should come on Jeanjean’s second serve. Liu has repeatedly turned close first sets into comfortable finishes, so loose service games will be expensive. Jeanjean must also reset quickly after missed chances; Liu has been ruthless once resistance has softened.

I expect Liu to be closer to the final because her court position, fresher legs and cleaner recent service games give her the steadier base. Jeanjean can make both sets awkward, but Liu at −2.5 games looks reasonable in a match that may finish in two competitive sets.

Elsa Jacquemot — Anna Blinkova

Blinkova arrives with the stronger favourite’s profile, but Jacquemot brings the more revealing victory. The Frenchwoman lost a first-set tie-break to Anastasia Tikhonova in the quarterfinal and then responded 6-1, 6-1. That was not merely survival; it was a complete correction in intensity and shot selection.

The cost of the week is the concern. Jacquemot came through qualifying, needed three sets against Ekaterina Ovcharenko and played another decider against Tikhonova. Blinkova has conceded only 11 games in three straight-set wins. The scoreboard, a notably humourless sergeant, gives no extra credit for taking the longer route.

Blinkova’s progression has been controlled. Valentina Mediorreal Arias offered little resistance, Nadia Podoroska stayed with her early before losing 7-5, 6-1, and Julia Riera was contained 6-2, 6-2. Blinkova has not needed to solve a genuine crisis, but she has also avoided creating one through poor serving or impatient rally choices.

The head-to-head gives Blinkova a useful edge without settling the argument. She leads 2-1, including a 6-1, 6-3 win on the Strasbourg clay in May 2025 and a 6-4, 6-0 victory on Grenoble’s indoor hard court in 2022. Jacquemot won their first meeting 7-6(7), 6-1 indoors in Limoges in 2021. None of those matches came on an outdoor hard court, but Blinkova’s last two wins show that she has become comfortable absorbing Jacquemot’s first acceleration.

Jacquemot needs variation rather than constant force. Her forehand can open sharp angles when she steps around the ball, but Blinkova is comfortable redirecting predictable pace. Jacquemot’s better pattern is a deep neutral ball followed by a change of direction, with the occasional shorter angle to pull Blinkova away from her preferred baseline position.

Blinkova’s physical economy is a major advantage. She has said, “In recent months I have felt much better and moved much better on court” (Championat). Her task is to maintain that movement when Jacquemot changes pace and to keep her serve routine intact if the opening set becomes close.

I think Blinkova is closer to the win and should have enough control to cover −3.5 games. Jacquemot’s comeback against Tikhonova makes a quick rout less likely, but another slow start will be much harder to repair against a fresher opponent who has led from the front all week.

Fresh legs against tested nerve

The central question in both semifinals is whether clean progress outweighs experience under pressure. Liu and Blinkova have conserved energy and imposed their patterns; Jeanjean and Jacquemot have already shown that they can absorb momentum swings without abandoning the match.

I am most interested in the first pressure service game for each favourite. That moment should show whether Liu and Blinkova remain composed when the week finally becomes uncomfortable. The AI cappers handle the concrete picks on the individual match pages, where the numbers and preferred angles are set out specifically.