US Open Women, September 5: Keys–Zheng and the night tests

The US Open women’s third round on September 5 brings together players arriving with sharply different levels of mileage. Madison Keys has survived five match points, Qinwen Zheng is rebuilding after elbow surgery, and Elena Rybakina is protecting an ankle that has not yet faced a long examination.

The night session adds Naomi Osaka’s first-strike tennis and the friendship rivalry between Iva Jovic and Alexandra Eala. It resembles a basket drill in which every player receives the same ball but must solve a different problem. These are the five matches I find most compelling:

• 15:00 — Madison Keys — Qinwen Zheng
• 16:30 — Mirra Andreeva — Nikola Bartunkova
• 21:00 — Yuliia Starodubtseva — Elena Rybakina
• 23:00 — Naomi Osaka — Elise Mertens
• 23:00 — Iva Jovic — Alexandra Eala

Times are UTC.

Madison Keys — Qinwen Zheng

Keys escaped Anna Bondar 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 after saving five match points. The recovery showed courage, but nearly three hours of tension can remain in the legs and in the serve routine. Keys joked afterwards, “No stress, though. We all knew I had it, right?” (US Open). The scoreboard, as ever, does not issue medals for emotional recovery.

Zheng has built rhythm through qualifying and five consecutive wins, although three of her last four matches have included a dropped set. Her ranking of 121 describes the interruption caused by chronic right-elbow pain and surgery more accurately than it describes her level. Against Yulia Putintseva, she recovered from a poor middle set to dominate the decider 6-1, with the serve and first forehand finally carrying their usual authority.

The head-to-head is level. Keys won 7-5, 6-1 on Washington hard courts in August 2023, while Zheng answered with a 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 victory in Miami this March. Zheng must make Keys strike while moving and expose any heaviness after the Bondar match. Keys must attack the second serve, establish depth through the middle and avoid searching for lines before the rally has earned them.

To my eye, Keys remains marginally closer because the New York court rewards her return position and direct forehand. The picture is murky enough that a clean two-set win looks optimistic, however; I think the 22-game total can be exceeded if Zheng holds her physical level.

Mirra Andreeva — Nikola Bartunkova

Andreeva has conceded only six games across two rounds, beating Janice Tjen 6-2, 6-2 and Eva Lys 6-0, 6-2. More important than the scores has been her discipline. She has accepted slices and awkward trajectories without rushing, then changed direction as soon as the short ball appeared.

Bartunkova had to solve a more complicated assignment against Tatjana Maria. After losing the opening-set tie-break, she stopped forcing pace from low contact points, moved forward more selectively and won the next two sets 6-2, 6-3. That adjustment showed maturity, but it also required substantially more physical and mental work than Andreeva’s second round.

This is their first meeting. Bartunkova needs purposeful variation rather than variety for its own sake: low balls to bring Andreeva forward, acceleration behind the forehand and well-timed approaches. Neutral rally tolerance favours Andreeva, who covers more court and redirects reliably from both wings.

Yuliia Starodubtseva — Elena Rybakina

This is not a routine meeting between the world No. 2 and a player outside the top 50. Starodubtseva beat Rybakina 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 at Roland Garros in May by absorbing the first strike and extending enough rallies to disturb the favourite’s timing. The faster US Open surface gives Rybakina more protection, but the tactical memory belongs to both players.

Rybakina has looked efficient through two rounds, conceding nine games and avoiding a long physical test. That matters because her left leg and ankle forced her off court for a week after Cincinnati. “For a couple of days, it was painful to even walk,” she said before the tournament (US Open). Her movement has been sound so far, although Starodubtseva will try to test the first lateral step immediately.

Starodubtseva arrives after a far heavier assignment. She recovered from 1-6 down against Maria Sakkari, won the second-set tie-break and completed the comeback despite visible cramping. Her plan again requires deep blocks, repeated direction changes and the fitness to make Rybakina hit one extra ball. Executing that plan after nearly three hours of strain is the concern.

Naomi Osaka — Elise Mertens

Osaka’s win over Katerina Siniakova contained a familiar warning and an encouraging response. She dominated the first set, became self-critical while losing the second, then reset and raced through the decider 6-1. “I just felt I had to fight the best I can,” Osaka said afterwards (US Open). The quality of the reset mattered more than the temporary loss of control.

Mertens has advanced in straight sets through discipline rather than overwhelming pace. She changes height, redirects into uncomfortable zones and makes an aggressive opponent play another shot after the point appears finished. That is precisely the test for Osaka: extended rallies cannot be treated as evidence that the attack has failed.

They have met nine times. In the five recent meetings supplied here, Osaka won three, including 6-1, 6-2 on Toronto hard courts last month and 6-3, 6-3 on grass in June. Mertens earned hard-court victories at Indian Wells and Toronto in 2024, so she has previously exploited Osaka’s impatient phases. The latest meeting, however, suggests Osaka is now handling the Belgian’s patterns much more cleanly.

Iva Jovic — Alexandra Eala

Two close friends meet on Arthur Ashe Stadium with very little separating them in current level. Jovic has won both previous matches, beating Eala 6-4, 6-2 at Roland Garros in May and 6-2, 6-2 on grass in London in June. Those results establish a clear tactical advantage, although neither came on the hard court that has supported Eala’s best tennis this season.

Jovic has been steady through two rounds, but Eala has been cleaner and more economical. The left-hander dropped five games against Mary Stoiana and another five against Oleksandra Oliynykova. When Oliynykova changed the rhythm with higher, softer balls, Eala kept her court position and waited rather than forcing the first available forehand.

Jovic is comfortable absorbing pace and redirecting Eala’s crosscourt forehand. Eala therefore needs the left-handed serve out wide, early changes down the line and selective movement to the net. The friendship adds pressure because each player knows the other’s routines, and both must separate personal warmth from the first important return game.

I give Jovic a very narrow edge because she has already solved this matchup twice, but Eala’s current fluency makes the one-game handicap difficult to trust. I expect swings in control and think a decider, or at least more than 22 games, is entirely plausible.

Power, recovery and discipline under pressure

Keys and Zheng pose the day’s hardest physical question, while Rybakina must show that efficient early rounds have genuinely settled the ankle concern. Osaka’s challenge is emotional discipline, and the Jovic–Eala match may be decided by which friend settles into a normal serve routine first.

I expect the strongest performances to come from the players who protect their second serves and remain patient in the pressure games. The concrete picks belong to the AI cappers on the individual match pages, where the lines and matchups receive their specific verdicts.