Round 3 Upset Watch: Zverev Sweats, Mensik Battles Tien

It is the third round of the US Open, and Saturday's slate is practically begging for chaos. A lot of the established names are dragging their feet into this weekend after emotionally exhausting or physically absurd second-round marathons, leaving the door wide open for some spectacular upsets. We have a genuine generational clash under the lights, a top seed complaining about winning ugly, and a few guys who just realized they might accidentally make the second week of a major. The storylines are thick, the legs are heavy, and the New York crowd is fully lubricated.

I have combed through the wreckage of the opening week, and these are the five matchups I absolutely refuse to miss today:

• 15:30 — Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo
• 16:30 — Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli
• 20:30 — Zizou Bergs vs Botic Van De Zandschulp
• 00:30 — Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien
• 00:30 — Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo

Times are UTC.

Taylor Fritz — Francisco Cerundolo

Fritz has been cruising through this tournament like he is double-parked outside. He dismantled Mattia Bellucci without letting him breathe, finding early ball contact and dictating with that monster forehand. The American is fully rested and playing with the kind of polished arrogance you expect from a top-ten threat on Arthur Ashe. He confirmed he is deliberately conserving energy, pointing out that things are clicking and feeling really good right now, as Tennis Up To Date reported.

Cerundolo’s path looks more like a crime scene. The Argentine had to survive an absolute brawl against Jan-Lennard Struff, going down two sets to one, obliterating a racquet, and eventually finding enough baseline weight to turn it around. He claimed his best tennis finally showed up at the end of that match, praising his coach's constant positivity (Audacy), but the physical toll of a near four-hour dogfight is a massive red flag. He brings heavy forehand pressure and a solid return, which could expose Fritz if the American gets too comfortable with short points. Fritz took their only prior meeting on the Madrid clay a couple of years back, but this slick hard court heavily amplifies his serve-plus-one structure.

Alexander Blockx — Flavio Cobolli

The oddsmakers are throwing their hands up here, pricing this almost dead even, and I completely understand the panic. They split their previous meetings, with Blockx taking it on the Monte Carlo clay earlier this year before Cobolli snatched a vicious three-set victory on the Cincinnati hard courts just three weeks ago. The Belgian comes into this round holding the cleaner rap sheet, taking out Tomas Barrios Vera and Marco Trungelliti with direct, purposeful ball striking. Blockx rarely lets a match spiral out of his control, which is the exact opposite of the Italian's entire brand.

Cobolli is treating New York like his personal Broadway residency. He dropped sets against Francisco Comesana and Tristan Schoolkate, leaning on physical persistence and improvised shotmaking—like a casual tweener lob—to drag himself back into the tournament. He already has considerable miles on the clock after a full mixed-doubles campaign during Fan Week and two marathon singles matches. "Today, I love to be Flavio Cobolli," he bragged after the second round (Tennis TourTalk), fully buying into his own hype. The Italian’s variety and defense are elite escape mechanisms, but he keeps giving his opponents massive head starts.

Zizou Bergs — Botic Van De Zandschulp

Someone has to survive this section of the draw, and neither of these guys was originally supposed to be the candidate. Van de Zandschulp just played spoiler to the entire tournament by executing a masterful takedown of Alex de Minaur. He refused to let the Australian turn the match into a track meet, pinning him with flat depth and an unhurried temperament that is uniquely lethal in these conditions. The Dutchman plainly loves the New York crowds and atmosphere (Tennis TourTalk), and his history of pulling off giant-killing runs here is officially a trend, not a fluke.

Bergs, meanwhile, has been riding a wild roller coaster just to get here. His win over Jesper de Jong featured brilliant, front-foot aggression interrupted by sudden, terrifying drops in control. He eventually relocated his conviction late in the match, but that kind of emotional surging is exactly what Van de Zandschulp’s flat game is designed to neutralize. Bergs has to vary his height, crash the net, and absolutely avoid trying to outhit the Dutchman from static positions on the baseline.

This one is a classic psychological trap. Following up a career-defining major upset is notoriously the toughest assignment in tennis. I like Van de Zandschulp's tactical matchup, but expecting him to replicate that peak level without an emotional hangover is a massive ask. The 38.5 games total going over seems like the smartest angle, as I expect Bergs to snatch at least a set while the Dutchman recalibrates from his headline victory.

Jakub Mensik — Learner Tien

This is the late-night viewing you skip sleep for. We have a genuine clash of styles between two rising stars that feels like a preview of the second-week major battles for the next decade. Tien just gave a masterclass in emotional detachment, dismantling Nuno Borges before systematically shutting down Gael Monfils and the circus that surrounds his final major appearance. Tien played exceptional defense, kept his low, flat lefty patterns tight, and explicitly noted that working with Michael Chang has skyrocketed his self-belief (Tennis.com).

Mensik arrives armed to the teeth. He is finally past a brutal spring filled with infections and abdominal issues, stating he is super happy to just play pain-free again (Tennis.com). The tall Czech has immense power, a booming serve, and the ability to simply take the racquet out of an opponent’s hands. Against Jurij Rodionov, he briefly lost his radar but restored his first-strike authority rather than spiraling. Tien actually beat Mensik in an indoor hard-court Next Gen Finals clash back in 2024, proving he can jam the big man's forehand with those tricky crosscourt angles.

Alexander Zverev — Alejandro Tabilo

The second seed is alive, but barely. Zverev has spent the opening week flirting with disaster, requiring back-to-back late-night marathons to outlast Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys. He had to dig himself out of massive holes with his conditioning rather than his racquet, openly confessing that he is currently winning while playing terribly (Punto de Break). He claims he feels physically fine, but wrapping up five-setters at two in the morning leaves a hidden tax on the legs.

Tabilo is out for blood. The Chilean got shell-shocked by the noise on Arthur Ashe when these two met here last year, but he comes into this rematch swinging freely. Tabilo explicitly stated he wants revenge and feels he has absolutely nothing to lose this time around (Clay Tenis). After a passive start against Alexei Popyrin, Tabilo ramped up his serving, stepped up to the baseline, and aggressively rushed the net. The German holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage—including that straight-sets win here last year and a Rome semi-final on clay—and his backhand stability naturally insulates him against lefty crosscourt fire, but if he starts slow again, he is asking for a beating.

Expect Chaos, Heavy Legs, and Late-Night Drama

This is the point in a major where adrenaline starts bouncing off physical exhaustion, making the heavy favorites highly vulnerable. We have top seeds leaning on pure survival instincts and unheralded players suddenly realizing they are three sets away from a career-altering payday. Watch the footwork in those opening games today—if a favorite looks sluggish off the mark, the upset alerts should immediately start flashing.

I have given you my read on the underlying mechanics and where the value sits, but the actual trigger-pulling belongs to the AI cappers. They have their concrete picks mapped out on the match pages, crunching the algorithms while the rest of us just sit back and enjoy the carnage.