US Open preview, September 4: Alcaraz’s wrist and a left-handed night fight

The US Open third round on September 4 is built around attacking players being asked to hold their nerve. Carlos Alcaraz continues his return from a wrist injury, Alexander Bublik meets Tommy Paul after last year’s five-set argument, and Ben Shelton faces the one opponent on this slate who can match his left-handed power.

The important details will be second-serve discipline, court position and the quality of the first service game after a difficult set. These are the five matches I want to examine:

16:30 — Daniil Medvedev — Arthur Rinderknech
16:30 — Alexander Bublik — Tommy Paul
17:00 — Yibing Wu — Carlos Alcaraz
21:00 — Jiri Lehecka — Stefanos Tsitsipas
00:30 — Ben Shelton — Denis Shapovalov

Times are UTC.

Daniil Medvedev — Arthur Rinderknech

Rinderknech has enough serve and first-strike weight to make this Medvedev’s first serious examination of the tournament. The Frenchman served out tight sets confidently against Jaume Munar and has already beaten Medvedev on a hard court, so he should enter without the usual outsider’s hesitation.

Their head-to-head is level at one win each. Medvedev controlled their 2022 US Open meeting 6-2, 7-5, 6-3, but Rinderknech reversed the result in the 2025 Shanghai semi-final, winning 4-6, 6-2, 6-4. That more recent match matters because it showed that Rinderknech can sustain his aggression after the first serve comes back.

Medvedev has won both matches here in straight sets and handled the pressure games well when Sebastian Gorzny made the third set competitive. His return position will force Rinderknech to volley from below net height or manufacture a second attacking shot. Rinderknech must vary the serve, use the body delivery and avoid feeding Medvedev the same serve-plus-forehand pattern all afternoon.

I expect Medvedev to absorb the early pressure and make Rinderknech play too many difficult balls after his first strike. Medvedev looks closer to a controlled win, and the Russian’s -4.5-game handicap appears reachable if his second-serve return remains disciplined.

Alexander Bublik — Tommy Paul

This is the most balanced tactical match of the early schedule. Bublik wants the points short and irregular; Paul wants one more neutral ball, one more change of direction and one more decision from the other side.

Bublik has been unusually economical in New York. He followed a four-set opening win with a 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 dismissal of Adrian Mannarino, relying on the serve and early forehand rather than decorating points that were already won. The scoreboard does not award marks for artistic intent. Paul has needed more repairs, recovering from a lost opening set in round one and then allowing Dino Prizmic back into a match before closing in four.

They have met seven times. The most relevant result came in last year’s US Open third round, when Bublik won 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1. Paul had beaten him 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 in Miami five months earlier, which underlines how little separates them when Paul gets enough returns into play.

The contest resembles a return drill in which one player keeps changing the feed while the other is ordered to maintain the same footwork. Paul’s legs and compact backhand can remove some of Bublik’s easy points, but only if his return has depth. A passive block will leave Bublik with a comfortable first volley or forehand.

I see a match that can turn on two or three return games. Paul is slightly more dependable over five sets, but Bublik’s current serving form makes the +2.5-game line attractive to my eye, with the possibility of another match beyond 40.5 games.

Yibing Wu — Carlos Alcaraz

The result is only part of Alcaraz’s examination. The more important question is whether he serves and accelerates through the forehand without monitoring the right wrist that kept him out for more than four months.

Alcaraz has felt no pain in two matches, although Jaime Faria took the opening set from him after the serve lost rhythm and the forehand sat short. Alcaraz responded with a 6-0 set and became progressively more forceful as the match turned physical. His comment that he had missed “the nerves, the pressure, the tense and difficult moments” captured the pleasure of competing again without pretending that the comeback is complete (US Open).

Wu has won six straight sets here and conceded only nine games against James Duckworth. His clean timing allows him to redirect pace from close to the baseline, which makes him more dangerous than his ranking suggests against a favorite still rebuilding trust in a major stroke.

Alcaraz won their only previous meeting 7-6, 6-3 on the Shanghai hard court in October 2024. Wu stayed with him through the first set, but Alcaraz’s movement and variety eventually created too many different contacts. Wu needs the same early balance here and cannot afford to be dragged into repeated defensive runs.

I expect Wu to test Alcaraz early but struggle once the Spaniard establishes his forehand and changes the height of the rally. Alcaraz is the clear favorite, and -6.5 games should hold if the wrist remains quiet and his serve routine does not unravel.

Jiri Lehecka — Stefanos Tsitsipas

This match asks whether Tsitsipas’s renewed composure can survive an opponent designed to expose his hard-court weaknesses. Lehecka takes the return early, redirects pace cleanly and will send repeated pressure through the backhand side.

The head-to-head is tied 2-2, but its direction favors Lehecka. Tsitsipas won their 2022 Rotterdam semi-final in three sets and their 2023 Australian Open quarter-final 6-3, 7-6, 6-4. Lehecka then won 6-2, 6-4 at Indian Wells in March 2024 and 6-4, 6-4 indoors in Antwerp that October.

Lehecka improved from an uneven first round to a straight-sets win over Toby Samuel. Tsitsipas has taken the harder route, coming from behind against Arthur Fils and then spending more than three hours beating Lloyd Harris in four sets. The Greek has reported no current back problem, but recovery matters when his route to victory depends on explosive forehand movement and repeated forward runs.

Tsitsipas says his rebuilt team has “set boundaries,” and his calmer responses to lost opening sets suggest that the change is more than cosmetic (US Open). He still cannot allow the match to settle into neutral backhand exchanges. First serves, inside-out forehands and decisive net approaches are essential.

I make Lehecka the steadier player in this specific matchup. His fresher legs and early contact give him the better route through the pressure games, and the -2.5-game handicap looks fair in a match likely to last four competitive sets.

Ben Shelton — Denis Shapovalov

This is the night’s pure power contest, but the winner is unlikely to be the player who hits the most spectacular forehand. The stronger second serve, the safer backhand and the calmer attempt to serve out a set should decide it.

Shelton has already recovered from two difficult passages. He responded to a 1-6 opening set against Tallon Griekspoor, then regained aggressive court position after Hubert Hurkacz had unsettled him in round two. Shapovalov has looked more fluent, particularly in a 6-0, 6-4, 7-6 win over Luca Van Assche, although the final set contained another of his familiar closing wobbles.

Shelton leads the rivalry 4-0. He won a five-set Wimbledon meeting in 2024, took their Shanghai match 6-3, 7-5 later that year and was ahead 7-6, 6-6 when Shapovalov defaulted in Washington. Their latest match was the closest: Shelton won the 2026 Dallas semi-final 4-6, 6-4, 7-6.

Neither player has a current injury concern. Shelton’s previous left-shoulder problem and Shapovalov’s Wimbledon shoulder retirement remain background rather than evidence of a present restriction. Both have served and swung freely through two rounds.

Shapovalov called it “a lefty, big-hitting battle,” while Shelton described him as “electric out on the court” (US Open). The decisive difference is reliability. Shelton’s two-handed backhand gives him a safer rally ball when the first attack fails, whereas Shapovalov can turn one ambitious swing into three.

I lean toward Shelton because he has shown the better recovery after poor stretches and owns the head-to-head. Shapovalov’s level makes a routine score unlikely, however, and over 38.5 games looks plausible if he protects his second serve well enough to force at least one tie-break.

Alcaraz’s trust and the pressure games after midnight

Alcaraz’s wrist is the day’s largest physical question, but Bublik’s concentration and Tsitsipas’s recovery may decide the tighter contests. I expect the most revealing tennis to arrive after lost sets, when serve routines shorten, return positions change and confidence has to become practical.

Shelton and Shapovalov should provide the noise, while Medvedev’s work against Rinderknech may offer the cleanest tactical lesson. The AI cappers handle the concrete selections on the individual match pages; my focus here remains on which habits are most likely to survive the pressure games.