US Open Women, September 3: Gauff Meets Her Early Test

The US Open women’s second round on September 3 is built around one marquee contest and several examinations of competitive health. Cori Gauff has the form but not necessarily the comfortable matchup against Paula Badosa, while Naomi Osaka must turn nervous control into freer attacking tennis.

Qinwen Zheng and Elena Rybakina both have physical questions to answer, and Lilli Tagger gets her first major test against an established contender. These are the five matches I find most compelling:

• 15:30 — Naomi Osaka — Katerina Siniakova
• 16:30 — Lilli Tagger — Amanda Anisimova
• 17:00 — Qinwen Zheng — Yulia Putintseva
• 23:00 — Paula Badosa — Cori Gauff
• 01:00 — Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Elena Rybakina

Times are UTC.

Naomi Osaka — Katerina Siniakova

Osaka needs a calmer performance rather than a more ambitious one. She beat Anastasia Zakharova in two tie-breaks, but the score concealed repeated failures to create separation. Her nerve held when both sets became tight, yet she spent too much of the match reacting instead of imposing her serve and backhand.

That followed a strong North American run in which Osaka beat Leylah Fernandez and Elise Mertens before losing narrowly to Rybakina. She withdrew from Cincinnati because of fatigue and arrived in New York physically ready, but not emotionally loose. “For my part, I was very nervous. In some situations, I wasn’t serving well” (Punto de Break).

Siniakova will not give Osaka the static power contest she prefers. The Czech can keep slices low, change direction early and move forward behind short replies. She also has enough return skill to make Osaka play extra second-serve points, although her singles form has been uneven and her doubles schedule adds workload.

Osaka leads their rivalry 2-1. She won their only previous hard-court meeting 6-4, 6-0 in Doha in 2018 and handled Siniakova 6-3, 6-2 at Wimbledon last year. Siniakova’s victory came on clay at Roland Garros in 2019, where her variety had more time to take effect. A coach would put a basket of second serves beside Osaka and ask for the same routine fifty times; the technical work is available, but the discipline must survive the scoreboard.

Lilli Tagger — Amanda Anisimova

Tagger’s reward for her first Grand Slam main-draw victory is an opponent who attacks long swings before they are properly organised. The 18-year-old Austrian has reach, imagination and a distinctive one-handed backhand, but Anisimova’s compact return game will remove preparation time from that wing.

Tagger’s 6-0, 7-6 win over Tamara Korpatsch showed both sides of her development. She began with fearless first-strike tennis, then became passive as rallies lengthened and the score tightened. Recovering from behind in the tie-break was important because it proved she could correct herself before a deciding set became necessary.

Anisimova was far cleaner in a 6-1, 6-3 opening win over Ashlyn Krueger. She took the ball early, protected her court position and avoided the emotional drift that has complicated some of her close matches. Her previous Cincinnati defeat to Jessica Pegula went to a final-set tie-break, but wins over Linda Noskova and Alexandra Eala underline the level she has brought to hard courts.

Qinwen Zheng — Yulia Putintseva

This match depends on whether Zheng can remain disciplined after an unusually heavy route into the second round. She came through qualifying after elbow surgery had disrupted her major career, then recovered from a set down against Kristina Liutova while dealing with illness and dizziness. Four consecutive wins have restored rhythm, but they have also added mileage.

Zheng has repeatedly needed time to settle. Elena Pridankina took a set from her in qualifying, and Liutova rushed her early in the main draw. Once Zheng established her forehand and landed the first serve with more authority, she finished both matches strongly. The concern is that Putintseva specialises in extending the unsettled portion.

Putintseva’s 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 victory over Belinda Bencic was one of the first round’s best competitive recoveries. She varied height and direction, chose her moments to move forward and became more adventurous as Bencic tightened. It was also a long, emotionally expensive match, so neither player enters with a perfect recovery profile.

Putintseva has won both previous meetings. She took their 2023 Roland Garros match 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 and led 7-5, 2-0 when Zheng retired in Madrid in 2024. Both were on clay, which gave Putintseva more time to alter the shape of rallies. Zheng’s serve and forehand carry greater authority on a New York hard court, but she cannot treat every neutral ball as an invitation to finish the point.

I have Zheng slightly closer to the win because her first strike can stop Putintseva from building the rally. The picture remains murky because of Zheng’s illness, her cumulative workload and Putintseva’s 2-0 head-to-head lead. I expect a long match, with over 21 games more convincing to my eye than Zheng covering a four-game handicap.

Paula Badosa — Cori Gauff

Gauff brings the stronger current form into the day’s headline match, but Badosa brings evidence that this particular matchup suits her. Gauff has won her past five matches in straight sets, including victories over Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk. Her opening win over Zeynep Sonmez was not flawless, yet an extended pressure hold steadied her and allowed her to finish assertively.

Badosa returned from several weeks without competition by beating Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-4. The first phase was sharp: she served confidently and dictated from the baseline. Rain forced the match across two days, and Badosa was much tighter when she returned to finish it. The tennis looked ready; the process of closing still showed rust.

Badosa says her body is healthy after a minor procedure to improve her breathing, but match fitness remains uncertain. She had not played a hard-court match since spring, and the rain delay brought poor sleep and another trip back to the grounds. Gauff has no reported injury and has shown greater trust in her remodelled serve under pressure.

The recent rivalry gives Badosa legitimate confidence. She beat Gauff 7-5, 6-4 on hard court in the 2025 Australian Open quarterfinals and came back to win 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 on grass in Berlin this June. Gauff had won their previous meetings in Beijing and Rome, both in three sets. Badosa’s direct ball striking can rush Gauff’s forehand, while Gauff’s movement and depth can make Badosa hit repeatedly from uncomfortable positions.

I think Gauff is closer to the win because she has more current match fitness and a safer level when rallies extend. The market’s 6.28 price on Badosa reflects the layoff more than the matchup, however, and the Spaniard’s +5.5-game cushion looks reasonable if her legs hold up. This has more chance of becoming a physical three-set examination than the winner prices suggest.

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Elena Rybakina

Rybakina looked healthy in her 6-3, 6-2 victory over Thea Frodin, but that match did not fully test the left ankle that forced her retirement in Cincinnati. The points were generally short, and Rybakina could manage the contest through serving accuracy and early ball striking.

Bouzas Maneiro beat Darja Vidmanova 6-3, 6-4 after a long rain interruption. She returned from the delay with good concentration and did not allow the match to acquire a second life. Her tactical task now is obvious: return enough serves, change direction early and make Rybakina defend outside the doubles alley. The scoreboard, as ever, does not issue medical exemptions.

Rybakina won their only previous meeting 6-2, 6-3 on hard court at the 2024 United Cup. Bouzas Maneiro has won only seven of her 20 hard-court matches this season, while Rybakina has won 29 of 36. The Spaniard cannot afford neutral exchanges through the middle because that allows Rybakina to organise her feet and dictate with the first central ball.

Gauff’s matchup problem and the day’s fitness files

Badosa’s ability to sustain her opening-round level is the central question, while Zheng’s recovery and Rybakina’s lateral movement deserve equal attention. I also want to see whether Osaka keeps the same serve routine when a return game slips away, because her ceiling is not the issue; her response to pressure is.

The detailed calls belong to the AI cappers on the individual match pages, where they get specific. My broader expectation is a day in which discipline matters more than reputation: second-serve holds, clean closing games and the willingness to play one extra ball will separate the contenders from the names.