US Open, 2 September: Paolini's Tuscan derby, Pliskova back in the place that broke her ankle, and Stephens chasing a memory

The second round at the US Open is where a draw stops being a formality and starts being a story. On 2 September the women's card is stacked with returns: Sloane Stephens back at the tournament she won, coming off her first major win of a comeback from a stress fracture; Karolina Pliskova back on the site where her left ankle was destroyed in 2024; Karolina Muchova playing only her second singles match since surgery after Wimbledon. Around them, Jessica Pegula and Sofia Kenin renew an old American acquaintance, and Jasmine Paolini has drawn a woman she has known since childhood.

It is a day built on contrasts rather than blowouts — comebacks against certainties, first-strike hitters against rhythm-breakers, a qualifier who has already banked four wins in New York against a seed who has barely played since Wimbledon. Here are the five I want to talk about:

15:00 — Paolini — Stefanini
15:00 — Pliskova — Shnaider
15:30 — Pegula — Kenin
17:00 — Kostyuk — Stephens
18:30 — Boulter — Muchova

Times are UTC.

Paolini — Stefanini

Two women from Tuscany, one of them a two-time Grand Slam finalist, the other a qualifier who has spent most of her career in the tier below. They have met twice, in 2014 on clay at Civitavecchia and in 2021 on indoor hard at Courmayeur, and Paolini won both without much drama, the second one 6-4 7-5. The difference now is that Stefanini arrives with her rhythm already tuned to these courts, and Paolini arrives with a foot that has kept her out since Wimbledon.

Paolini's opener against Veronika Erjavec was honest about that. She won 6-3 3-6 6-4, but she was candid afterwards: "Today was really tough, my first match on hard court, coming back from injury is never easy" (US Open), and she added that nerves "affected my legs, I wasn't moving enough". For a player whose whole game is built on covering ground and taking the ball early, that is not a small confession. Her hard-court numbers this season, a shade above break-even, tell the same story from a different angle.

Stefanini, meanwhile, came through qualifying and then beat Dayana Yastremska 6-3 4-6 6-1, walking off court between sets to reset and coming back hitting through the ball instead of containing it. She has been winning on hard all year, and she has diagnosed this match precisely: "It will be a match decided by who can take time away first" (OA Sport). Both are around 163-164 cm; neither can afford to stand two metres behind the baseline and hope.

Paolini is the better player and should find her feet as the match goes on, but 1.44 feels like a price for a healthy Paolini rather than this one. To my eye this is long and awkward — the 21-game total looks beatable, and Stefanini at +4 is a reasonable place to stand. Three sets would not surprise me at all.

Pliskova — Shnaider

There is something quietly heavy about Pliskova walking back onto these courts. This is where she wrecked the ligaments and tendons in her left ankle in 2024, needed major surgery, then another operation because of infection, and had to start again from the bottom: "You forget how to walk, you lose all the muscles, all the mobility", she said of the rehab (WTA). Her ambition was modest — "slowly I was having that goal to play at least some matches once more" — and she has a 32-15 career record here to remind everyone what she once was in New York.

The opener was a scrap. Hanne Vandewinkel took the first set 6-2 and Pliskova had to shorten everything, trust the serve and simply refuse to lose, coming through 2-6 7-5 6-3. Shnaider spent far less: 6-0 6-4 against Daria Snigur, done before it became complicated. The left-hander's forehand is exactly the shot that drags Pliskova into the movement she least wants to do, and the one previous meeting — Shnaider 4-6 6-4 7-5 in the Wimbledon first round in 2024 — showed she can outlast her.

Pliskova's route is narrow and obvious: serve to spots, take the second ball early, refuse to play the third shot on the run. If Shnaider forces one extra lateral step per rally, the whole thing tips.

Shnaider at 1.268 looks fair rather than generous, and I lean her way for the freshness alone. But Pliskova served her way through a two-hour comeback on Sunday, and I would not expect a rout: +5 for the Czech is the side of the handicap I find more comfortable.

Pegula — Kenin

An all-American with a lopsided price and a not-quite-lopsided history. Pegula leads the head-to-head 4-2, including 7-6(4) 6-3 in this very round at the 2024 US Open and 6-3 7-5 in the Charleston final in April 2025, but Kenin's two wins came in 2021 and both were three-setters where she out-competed rather than out-hit her.

Pegula's opener was tidy after a nervy start — 6-3 6-2 over Elena-Gabriela Ruse — and she admitted the obvious: "A lot of nerves today… but I'm glad that it's over with" (WTA). Her coach Mark Knowles liked what he saw on the return, and on hard courts this season Pegula has been close to untouchable outside the very top of the draw.

Kenin's night was something else entirely: 6-2 7-6(6) over Venus Williams on Ashe, in a match that did not start until around midnight, saved by defending one more ball at the right moment. That is a wonderful memory and a rough recovery, and it sits on top of a hard-court season that has gone badly wrong. She did push Kostyuk to 7-5 in a third set in Cincinnati, so the competitor is intact.

Pegula at 1.051 is not a thought, it is a statement of fact. The interesting part is the 18-game total: Kenin takes the ball early enough to steal a set if Pegula drifts, and a 6-3 6-4 sort of afternoon feels closer to me than a bagel. I lean over on games and away from the -6.5.

Kostyuk — Stephens

This is the match of the day, and not because the ranking gap says so — it says the opposite, Kostyuk in the top dozen against a player who has slipped to around 208th. It is the match of the day because Stephens has just started playing like Stephens again, on the court where she won a major, in front of a crowd that has been waiting years for exactly this.

Her first round was a proper statement: 6-4 6-1 over Clara Tauson, starting passively, absorbing the first strike, then loosening into that effortless, heavy forehand tennis she has always had when the head is quiet. "It's been a bumpy comeback. It's been an eventful comeback", she said (US Open), and on the setting: "To finally be playing some really good tennis is always a good thing. But also, to be doing it in the U.S., in front of home crowds — it's incredibly special" (Andscape). The stress fracture in her right foot cost her most of last season; there was no sign of it against Tauson.

Kostyuk knows all of this. They met two weeks ago in the Cincinnati third round and she won 7-5 7-5 — close, and close in the way that flatters the loser, because Stephens kept building winning positions and kept failing to close them. Kostyuk's own words afterwards were almost a warning to herself: "It's never easy to play Americans in the U.S. I think they always bring their best tennis here" (Andscape). Her opener was a clean 6-4 6-1 over Storm Hunter, energy conserved, no complications.

Tactically it comes down to what Kostyuk feeds her. Stephens is one of the great absorbers of pace; give her the same ball in the same place and she will start redirecting it and looking comfortable. Height, angle, the occasional trip forward — that is what breaks the counterpunching rhythm. And Stephens has to stay the aggressor in her own head, because if she settles for keeping the ball in play, Kostyuk's baseline pressure eventually wins the argument.

Kostyuk should win, and 1.129 is roughly right. But 6.42 on Stephens is a real number for a former champion playing this well at home, and the recent 7-5 7-5 tells me the -6 handicap is the wrong side. I expect a tight two sets or a decider, and the 19-game total to go over.

Boulter — Muchova

Muchova already has a trophy from this US Open — the mixed doubles title with Jakub Mensik during Fan Week — which is a strange and rather lovely way to return from an operation. What the procedure actually was, she has never said publicly, so I will leave the speculation where it belongs. What matters is that she missed the whole North American build-up and then came back in singles and beat Sinja Kraus 6-3 6-0, calibrating in the first set and dismantling the second with variation rather than force.

Her mood sounds exactly right for it. "I believe enjoyment is fundamental… because when we play more freely, everything is easier", she said after the doubles final (SuperTennis). Free is the operative word: her hard-court season, before the surgery, was running at better than four wins in five.

Boulter's opener was the opposite kind of afternoon. She beat wild card Carol Lee 6-4 3-6 6-0, lost the plot in the middle when the rallies stretched, then remembered to hit through the ball and ran away with the decider. That is the whole matchup in miniature. Muchova beat her 6-3 7-5 in the Miami third round in March by doing precisely what she does to first-strike players: changing the height, changing the speed, refusing to give her a ball she can flatten.

Muchova is the better tennis player and the better mover, and I expect her through. Still, the body is a question nobody can answer from the outside, and Boulter's serve gives her a route into a set — Muchova at -5.5 is not where I would be comfortable. Something like 6-4 6-3 feels closest, with the 20-game total going over if Boulter holds her nerve on serve.

Three comebacks, one derby and the question of who can still close

What ties this card together is closing. Stephens created chance after chance against Kostyuk in Cincinnati and finished none of them. Boulter dropped a set she was controlling. Paolini won a match her legs did not really want. Muchova and Shnaider are the two who simply got the job done, and that is why they are favourites in matches the storylines would love to complicate. If Stephens converts on Louis Armstrong, or wherever they put her, the whole day reorganises itself around her.

My own reading stops at leanings and doubts, which is honest but not very precise. The specific numbers on all five of these matches belong to the AI cappers on the individual match pages, and they are far less shy about naming a side than I am.