US Open, September 1: Jodar’s momentum and Monfils’ final New York night

The US Open first round closes on September 1 with several matches shaped by physical uncertainty rather than reputation alone. Rafael Jodar brings elite hard-court form into a severe test of Thanasi Kokkinakis’s fitness, while Arthur Fery has the early ball-striking to rush Lorenzo Musetti.

Gael Monfils begins his final major on his 40th birthday, Flavio Cobolli must manage a heavy workload, and Alexander Zverev returns to the New York stage as a Grand Slam champion. These are the five matches I find most revealing:

15:00 — Francisco Comesana — Flavio Cobolli
16:30 — Arthur Fery — Lorenzo Musetti
18:00 — Rafael Jodar — Thanasi Kokkinakis
23:00 — Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Gael Monfils
00:30 — Alexander Zverev — Lorenzo Sonego

Times are UTC.

Francisco Comesana — Flavio Cobolli

Cobolli has been winning the difficult way. He escaped tight matches against Alexander Blockx and Jodar in Cincinnati, then recovered from a set down against Tommy Paul before Arthur Fils finally denied him time in the semifinals. His willingness to stay in pressure games is excellent, but repeated rescue missions are an expensive habit before a best-of-five opener.

Comesana has won only three of his 11 hard-court matches this season, yet his first strike can make an uncomfortable afternoon for a tired opponent. He beat Yibing Wu cleanly in Winston-Salem before a poor opening set against Daniel Altmaier left him chasing the match. Cobolli won their only previous meeting, 7-5, 2-6, 6-3 on Monte Carlo clay in April, but that contest also showed that Comesana can disrupt him for long stretches.

The Italian has added mixed-doubles matches to his Cincinnati workload, so his serve routine and early concentration matter. Comesana needs to attack the body serve and change direction before Cobolli settles behind the ball. Cobolli’s instruction is simpler: establish depth, make the Argentine move, and stop volunteering dramatic recoveries. Pressure may be his friend, but it does not need its own locker.

I expect Cobolli to impose his greater defensive discipline once the opening set settles. The under 36.5 games looks slightly stronger to me than Cobolli at −5.5, with a controlled four-set win the likeliest shape.

Arthur Fery — Lorenzo Musetti

Fery’s rise has travelled from grass to hard courts because the important part of it is technical, not seasonal. He takes the ball early, changes direction without a large backswing and keeps his court position under pressure. Four wins in his last five matches support that progress, although the 3-6, 2-6 loss to Ignacio Buse and an unresolved arm problem prevent a clean assessment.

Fery said, “I always had belief in my level, but my body was stopping me from playing much” (The Guardian). That remains the central question after another busy week. The matchup has the feel of a training drill in which one player stands on the baseline and the other keeps changing the height until the contact point breaks down.

Musetti’s Cincinnati run supplied useful evidence after injury problems cost him two majors. He beat Michael Zheng, Jaime Faria and Altmaier in straight sets before Frances Tiafoe pushed him too far behind the baseline. Musetti’s movement held up, and his ability to vary spin and return position gives him more ways to solve a match than Fery currently owns.

There is no previous meeting. Fery must attack Musetti’s court position and protect his second serve without overplaying the first forehand. Musetti needs height into Fery’s strike zone, then the discipline to move forward when the short ball arrives rather than admire the rally.

I think Musetti is closer to the win, but Fery at +5.5 games looks competitive and the over 35.5 is reachable if his arm remains stable. Four close sets would not surprise me; neither would Fery turning this into the day’s cleanest upset chance.

Rafael Jodar — Thanasi Kokkinakis

This is a contest between current reliability and established firepower. Jodar has beaten Arthur Fils, Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Tabilo during a hard-court season in which he has won 26 of 35 matches. His narrow loss to Cobolli was also instructive: Jodar took the opening set, survived pressure deep into the second and forced the favorite to earn the finish.

Kokkinakis still possesses the heavier serve and the more destructive forehand. His latest Cincinnati match, however, ended after he failed to close Nuno Borges, cramped and rolled an ankle late in the decider. More than two weeks of recovery should help, but best-of-five is not a wellness check.

Jodar has described his heavy schedule positively, saying, “Playing many matches is a good sign” (AS). The attitude is sound, although cumulative fatigue remains the one concern on his side. His return position and willingness to grind the rally should force Kokkinakis to hit more than one attacking ball, which is where movement and trust in the ankle become decisive.

They have not met before. Kokkinakis needs a high first-serve percentage and short service games because loose second-serve points will expose him immediately. Jodar’s task is to keep his return games disciplined, avoid chasing spectacular passing shots and make the Australian serve under pressure repeatedly.

I expect Jodar to win, but a fully functional Kokkinakis serve can keep the score closer than the winner price suggests. Jodar in four sets is my preferred match shape, with over 32.5 games more plausible than a routine procession.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Gael Monfils

Monfils enters his final US Open and final major on his 40th birthday. “This one will be special. It’s the last one,” he said before the tournament (US Open). The occasion will supply energy, but it cannot shorten every rally or restore a fading first serve late in the match.

His recent singles form has been uneven. Monfils has lost four of his last five matches, including a three-set defeat to Rinky Hijikata after taking the opener. His mixed-doubles run showed that the acceleration and improvisation remain, but doubles did not demand sustained baseline recovery over five sets.

Vallejo’s hard-court sample is smaller, yet he has won five of nine matches on the surface this season. Victories over Valentin Vacherot and Kyrian Jacquet showed his ability to build points patiently, while the 2-6, 0-6 loss to Botic van de Zandschulp exposed how quickly his level can fall when rushed. He cannot allow the farewell atmosphere to change his service tempo or shot selection.

There is no previous meeting. Monfils needs variation, early forehands and economical holds. Vallejo should remain neutral emotionally, attack the second ball and make Monfils defend one extra shot without turning every exchange into an endurance contest from the first game.

I see Vallejo as marginally closer to the win because his legs are more dependable over five sets, but the −1.5 handicap offers little comfort in such an emotional match. The 40.5-game total is equally delicate: Monfils can either stretch this into a decider or fade sharply after two competitive sets.

Alexander Zverev — Lorenzo Sonego

Zverev’s first major match as a Grand Slam champion comes at the venue where his most painful final defeat occurred. His Cincinnati tennis improved round by round, but the loss to Tommy Paul left a familiar coaching note: he created the late opening, then lost depth and precision when it was time to serve out the argument.

Sonego can make that hesitation visible. He wants first-strike forehands, energetic return games and a crowd involved in every pressure point. His recent hard-court results have been mixed, with wins over Adrian Mannarino and Juncheng Shang followed by a straight-sets loss to James Duckworth.

Zverev leads their rivalry 6-0. The recent evidence is particularly relevant: he won 6-4, 6-3 on Beijing hard courts last September, while their Halle meeting earlier in 2025 went to a final-set tie-break. Sonego can compete when his first serve gives him court position, but he has not shown that he can sustain the pattern long enough to beat Zverev.

I expect Zverev to control the centre with his backhand and earn enough looks at Sonego’s second serve for the −6.5 handicap to hold. A straight-sets result and under 34.5 games look more likely than a prolonged night, provided Zverev keeps his return position assertive.

Young legs, old questions and pressure on the second serve

The day turns on three physical tests: Kokkinakis’s movement, Fery’s arm and Monfils’ capacity to sustain singles intensity. I find Jodar’s return discipline and Vallejo’s emotional control more important than the obvious difference in star power.

Cobolli and Zverev face a different examination: both must convert superior positions without allowing the match to become unnecessarily dramatic. The concrete picks belong to the AI cappers on the match pages, where the calls become specific; my interest is in which players keep their routines intact when the first pressure game arrives.