US Open, August 31, 2026: Alcaraz’s Wrist and Wawrinka’s Last Stand

The US Open men’s first round begins on August 31 with three different kinds of comeback. Carlos Alcaraz returns to singles after a serious wrist problem, Grigor Dimitrov emerges from qualifying after another difficult rehabilitation, and Stan Wawrinka starts the final major of his career.

Arthur Fils brings the strongest form, while Ben Shelton carries home expectations into a dangerous first meeting with Tallon Griekspoor. These are the five matches I expect to define the day:

15:00 — Stefanos Tsitsipas — Arthur Fils
17:00 — Roman Safiullin — Carlos Alcaraz
18:00 — Matteo Berrettini — Stan Wawrinka
20:00 — Grigor Dimitrov — Alexei Popyrin
23:00 — Ben Shelton — Tallon Griekspoor

Times are UTC.

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Arthur Fils

This is a difficult opening assignment for Tsitsipas because Fils has already removed most of the mystery from the matchup. The Frenchman leads their head-to-head 5-0 and has beaten Tsitsipas on outdoor hard, indoor hard and clay. The most recent meeting was also the most severe: Fils won 6-0, 6-1 in Miami in March.

The pattern began with two tight indoor victories, in Antwerp in 2023 and Basel in 2024. Fils then recovered from a set down in Rome in 2025, advanced after Tsitsipas retired early in Barcelona, and overwhelmed him in Miami. He defends the first forehand well enough to make Tsitsipas play another attacking ball, then directs the rally through the Greek’s one-handed backhand.

Fils arrives after five consecutive hard-court wins, including straight-set victories over Alex de Minaur and Flavio Cobolli before a three-set final against Frances Tiafoe. The important detail in that final was his response to losing the second set 6-1. Fils restored his first-strike discipline and won the decider 6-0 rather than carrying frustration into his service games. “Now it’s just time to enjoy and have fun” (US Open).

Tsitsipas has split his 20 hard-court matches this year almost evenly, and his recent sequence again shows the problem. Good serving stretches have been interrupted by rushed backhands and loose service games. He needs accurate first serves, early forehands and enough net play to stop Fils settling into the same cross-court pressure that has decided their previous meetings.

I expect Fils to win. His current form and complete head-to-head control justify the short price, and I think his return pressure can make the −5.5-game handicap hold unless Tsitsipas serves at an exceptional level.

Roman Safiullin — Carlos Alcaraz

The defending champion’s first singles match since April is not a routine return. Alcaraz has recovered from right-wrist tenosynovitis, but a best-of-five match will test his forehand release, serving endurance and trust under pressure in ways mixed doubles and practice cannot.

Alcaraz says, “My team and I believe that I’m ready” (US Open). His long practices have supplied the clean repetitions of a return-to-play drill; Safiullin will supply balls struck at his body and scoreboard pressure. Alcaraz has also acknowledged the need to play at full speed rather than protect the wrist mentally, and that commitment will be clearest when he has to defend wide on the forehand side.

Safiullin has the compact power to make the opening hour uncomfortable. His Wimbledon run included two long early matches and an authoritative win over Joao Fonseca before Novak Djokovic stopped him in four sets. The hard-court preparation has cooled since then, with losses to Hubert Hurkacz and Hugo Grenier, but Safiullin does not need elaborate patterns here. Deep returns, early contact and repeated attacks on the second serve will give him his best chance.

The head-to-head is 1-1. Safiullin beat Alcaraz 6-3, 6-4 on indoor hard in Paris in 2023, while Alcaraz answered with a 6-4, 6-2 clay victory at the 2024 Olympics. The Paris result matters because it showed that Safiullin can rush Alcaraz when his timing is sharp. Alcaraz must prevent that by serving accurately, moving forward and using variation before the Russian establishes a clean striking zone. No medals are awarded for an encouraging first set.

Alcaraz is still closer to the win because his movement and tactical range provide solutions once he settles. I am less certain about a comfortable margin: Safiullin at +5.5 games looks competitive, and the over 36.5 remains plausible if the returning champion needs four sets.

Matteo Berrettini — Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka believed his Grand Slam career was over, returned to Switzerland, and then hurried back to New York when a place became available. The emotional freedom may help him swing cleanly, but the disrupted preparation is a concern against an opponent who can make every return game brief and every service game urgent.

Their only previous meeting came at Wimbledon in June. Wawrinka won the opening tie-break, but Berrettini took the next three, all in tie-breaks, to complete a 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 victory. Wawrinka’s backhand repeatedly found its old weight, yet Berrettini was slightly more disciplined in the pressure points and protected his first serve when the sets tightened.

Hard courts should strengthen Berrettini’s serve-plus-forehand pattern. He can also use the backhand slice into Wawrinka’s forehand to deny the Swiss a steady backhand rhythm. Berrettini’s own fitness history remains relevant after the hip problem that ended his Roland Garros campaign, although he has since completed Wimbledon and the summer hard-court schedule without a reported recurrence.

Wawrinka has won five of 12 hard-court matches this year and recently lost 6-3, 6-4 to Safiullin. At 41, recovery and lateral defence are larger questions than shot production. “I don’t want to stop, but I know I have to” (L’Équipe) captures the tension around his final major.

I think Berrettini wins, but the −4.5-game line is less comfortable than the match price. Wawrinka can protect his serve long enough to create tie-breaks, so over 39.5 games is reachable if he carries the occasion into a fourth set.

Grigor Dimitrov — Alexei Popyrin

This match puts Dimitrov’s restored tactical patience against Popyrin’s first-strike power. Dimitrov won two qualifying matches and then received a walkover, leaving him with useful hard-court rhythm but without the physical cost of a third contest.

Dimitrov changed pace intelligently during qualifying. His slice, changes of height and selective net approaches were more convincing than attempts to trade flat power. Those tools matter against Popyrin, who prefers a stable contact point and can force the next attack when rallies become awkward.

The head-to-head is tied 2-2, all on hard courts. Popyrin won their 2021 US Open meeting when Dimitrov retired in the third set and came from behind in Montreal in 2024. Dimitrov responded two months later with a 7-6, 6-2 victory in Shanghai. Popyrin has lost 12 of 18 hard-court matches this season, while his latest recorded match ended in retirement with the cause unspecified.

I have Dimitrov closer to the win because his variation should draw errors before Popyrin can control the forecourt. The −3.5-game handicap can hold if Dimitrov protects his second serve and keeps the match to three or four sets.

Ben Shelton — Tallon Griekspoor

Shelton enters as the clear favourite, but Griekspoor has already shown this summer that a famous opponent and a tight deciding set do not disturb him. He recovered from a set down against Alexander Zverev in Montreal, broke back late in the decider and then served out the match.

Shelton’s Canadian title run was built on disciplined first strikes rather than improvisation. He beat four strong opponents in succession, including Learner Tien and Brandon Nakashima, before a flat straight-set loss to Jaime Faria in Cincinnati. The recovery time removes fatigue as the obvious excuse, so his serve routine and shot selection should reveal whether that defeat was merely a drop in intensity.

There is no previous meeting. Shelton’s left-handed serve naturally exposes Griekspoor’s backhand return, while his forehand is the larger weapon once the court opens. Griekspoor needs a high first-serve percentage and immediate forward movement because neutral rallies allow Shelton to dictate with more margin.

I expect Shelton to win and think −5.5 games is reasonable. Griekspoor can keep one or two sets close, but Shelton’s superior return pressure and home-court energy should create enough separation before the match becomes a prolonged serve contest.

Alcaraz’s trust, Fils’s authority and Wawrinka’s final New York night

The day’s central question is whether Alcaraz can play without protecting his wrist, but Fils against Tsitsipas may offer the clearest tactical test. Fils has to turn a dominant matchup and excellent form into a composed best-of-five performance, while Tsitsipas must prove that his latest coaching reset has improved his response to pressure.

Wawrinka’s last major supplies the emotion, and Dimitrov’s qualifying route supplies another measure of what elite craft can still overcome. My priority matches are Alcaraz’s return and the Tsitsipas–Fils rivalry; the AI cappers handle the concrete selections on the individual match pages, where the margins and totals become specific.