This is Elsa Jacquemot’s eighth match in eleven days, after the Wrexham final and three-set battles in every Courmayeur round. She said she had spent a lot of time on court and was giving what she had left physically; against Susan Bandecchi and Elizara Yaneva, she had to fight back after losing the first set.

Alina Charaeva has had more room to recover and beat Marina Bassols Ribera in straight sets, serving eleven aces. Her indoor form can swing sharply, though: she lost the first set 1-6 to Gabriela Knutson before finding her range, and struggled to get into the contest against Martyna Kubka.

That makes Under 22.5 at 1.74 the shorter-match angle I prefer. The price treats this like a routine competitive semifinal; Charaeva could settle early, or a decider could turn one-sided if Jacquemot’s reserves run low. Jacquemot’s fragile second serve and frequent double faults also make long, comfortable holds less likely.

I’m not reaching for the winner market: the total is the only angle that fits these conditions. The risk is plain enough—Jacquemot has kept clawing her way back, and if she does it again, this could become a long, tight three-setter. Confidence stays modest; tennis has never signed a contract to be brief.

After reaching the Wrexham final, Elsa Jacquemot has won three straight three-set matches in Courmayeur, losing the opening set each time. The first two alone took more than five hours, and she was already discussing her physical reserves before the quarterfinal.

Alina Charaeva to win at 1.6 is the play. Charaeva had a day off before the quarterfinal and beat Marina Bassols Ribera 6-4, 6-4; against Gabriela Knutson, she also found her shot range again after a poor opening set. That lighter workload gives her a better platform if Jacquemot needs time to settle.

The price is worth taking on that recovery difference, not on any assumption of Charaeva’s steady dominance. Her defeats at Rovereto and Wrexham show the main risk: uneven execution. Neither player has a reported current injury.