Paolini’s recent trouble has not been limited to losing close finishes: against Jovic, backhand errors and shaky service let an early advantage slip; against Kartal, a promising start became a long loss of control. Osaka’s first-strike game gives her a way to press those weak points before Paolini can settle into longer rallies.

Osaka showed real quality in Beijing, serving through pressure and making Muchova work hard to finish the match. She has not always protected a lead cleanly, but this is a case for her containing Paolini over two sets, not for an effortless rout.

Under 20.5 games at 1.932 looks better than fair given how often Paolini’s execution has deserted her. Two 6-4 sets would be enough; there is no need to price in a blowout.

The concern is Osaka’s three-week break from competition and her uneven closing of matches. Paolini can still fight back through her return game, so the foot issue is not part of the case, nor is any assumption about unusually fast conditions.