Griekspoor’s serve has already stretched both of his Brussels matches beyond 24 games: 25 against Navone and 31 against Schönhaus. He hit 34 aces in the first and 14 in the second, with first-serve points won near or above 76%.

Lehecka’s 6-4, 6-2 win over Collignon showed how efficiently he can finish, but Collignon does not bring Griekspoor’s serving level. Against Griekspoor, tight sets are likelier: 7-5 or 7-6 scores keep the total moving even if Lehecka wins in straight sets.

At 1.94, the Over 23.5 games is worth taking. The likely straight-sets scorelines against this serve can land in the 22–25-game range, and a decider would put the line in much safer territory; four of Lehecka’s last eight completed matches went over comparable totals, including three-setters in Tokyo and Shanghai.

The concern is a Lehecka rout, 6-3 6-3 or shorter. But Griekspoor has escaped break-point danger late in both Brussels matches, then found a way to close; the market may be remembering the favourite’s tidy win more clearly than the underdog’s serve.