Buse’s recent trouble has been getting his service games settled: against Halys and Bergs, improvement came, but it never became sustained pressure. Vienna is also his first indoor-hard singles appearance of the season.

Mannarino’s compact, early contact should leave Buse less time to set up his forehand. Two qualifying wins have already given Mannarino a feel for the venue, and his recent wins over Cobolli and Rublev show the form is not limited to qualifying.

Under 22.5 games at 1.905 is the play. The line allows for two controlled sets without requiring a pair of routs or immaculate service holds; the price is worth taking on that route to a shorter match.

The caution is Mannarino’s uneven level and demanding schedule. Buse has a Winston-Salem title on hard courts, and his preparation break may have helped, but there is no intervening singles match to confirm a reset.

Buse’s last two singles first sets ended 0-6 and 1-6, and he has not played indoor hard this season. Mannarino has already completed two Vienna qualifying rounds and is 10-5 indoors this year; his flat, left-handed first strike could catch Buse while he is still adjusting.

That is the case for Under 22.5 at 1.905. A 6-2 or 6-3 opening set leaves little room for the total to grow, even if Buse makes the second more competitive.

Mannarino’s recent match totals—13, 23, 18, 10, 22, 20 and 12 games—mostly fall below the line; Buse’s last two were 9 and 20. The 1x2 and handicap markets were unavailable, so there is no side price to weigh against this total.

The danger is a close three-set match with tie-breaks. For that to happen, Buse must settle immediately and Mannarino must stay engaged without taking control; that is possible, but it asks for a different start from the one Buse has recently produced.