Basilashvili’s Almaty run was built on more than one good day: five wins came in straight sets, and four of those finished at 19 games or fewer. He struck double-digit aces in every main-draw match and won more than 40% of return points; Tsitsipas was the only opponent to take him to three sets.

Rodionov’s 191 cm left-handed serve, home support and stated plan to disrupt Basilashvili are real counterweights. But his latest indoor match ended in a 0-6 deciding set against Herbert, and his Vienna record is 1-7; Davis Cup confidence came on outdoor clay, a different test.

Under 22.5 at 1.984 is worth taking against a price that leans slightly toward the Over. Basilashvili’s first-strike game points to a score such as 6-4, 6-3, while the Over needs a three-set contest or several unusually close sets.

The chief danger is a tie-break inflating a straight-sets match. Even 7-6, 6-3 totals 22 games, still under the line; the market’s memory can be shorter than a tie-break.