Norrie has lost his last five matches, but every one went beyond 22.5 games: against Bonzi, Svrčina, Zverev twice and Van Assche. Those defeats were not quick exits, and indoor conditions make holds and tie-breaks more plausible.

Cerúndolo brings strong recent indoor form, but his Brussels semifinal against Griekspoor showed the danger of assuming he will close cleanly: he served for the match, then produced an error-prone game. Norrie needs his serve to create a useful next ball and his backhand to disrupt Cerúndolo’s forehand pressure.

At 1.946, Total Over (22.5) is worth taking because Cerúndolo’s edge need not mean repeated breaks; Norrie has kept even his losing matches long. The risk is a confidence-driven collapse into a 6-3, 6-3 defeat, though his recent scores have not shown that kind of early surrender.