Curitiba, October 29: Riera's comeback, Souza's breakthrough and Grabher's clay pedigree

Curitiba is hosting its first WTA clay event, and on Thursday, October 29, the second round wraps up at Graciosa Country Club. Three matches remain, and each carries a different kind of story: one player has just wriggled out of trouble, one has just won the biggest match of her life, and two have just silenced Brazilian crowds.

Francesca Jones arrives as the name the local press treats as a title favourite. Julia Grabher brings fresh silverware and a happy memory of Brazilian clay. I'll go through all three, in the order they start:

15:00 — Julia Riera — Yasmine Kabbaj
16:30 — Francesca Jones — Marjorie Souza
18:00 — Maria Lourdes Carle — Julia Grabher

Times are UTC.

Julia Riera — Yasmine Kabbaj

Julia Riera's first match here was less a tennis match than a rescue operation. Rebeka Masarova took the opening set 6-1 and was still ahead deep into the second. Then Riera turned it around, and the decider went 6-1 her way, as if the first hour had happened to someone else.

I like what that says about her temperament, though I am less fond of the slow start. Nobody has explained what she changed in the middle of that match, and I would rather see her settle in early than rely on another escape. She also had doubles with Maria Lourdes Carle on Wednesday, so the day off was not entirely a day off.

Clay is the surface her WTA biography names as her favourite, and her year backs that up: 38 wins against 15 losses on the red dirt in 2026, against a modest showing on hard courts. That is the record of a player at home on this surface.

Yasmine Kabbaj had a far calmer opener, dismissing Rebeca Pereira 6-1 6-2. Before Curitiba, though, her clay season looked uneven: a near-even record for the year, and recent losses that included a 6-7 0-6 against Andrea Lazaro Garcia. Her smooth Tuesday tells me little about how she copes when a match turns into a real fight.

To my eye Riera is clearly closer to the win, and I expect her to need less time to warm up than she did against Masarova. The question is margin: if she starts sluggishly again, Kabbaj will collect games early. I lean towards Riera in straight sets, with −4 looking decent if the first few games go her way.

Francesca Jones — Marjorie Souza

This is the match with the biggest gap and, to me, the warmest story. Marjorie Souza is in her first full professional season after college tennis, and her 6-1 7-5 win over Berta Bonardi was her first singles victory at this level. She spoke about it with an honesty that players rarely allow themselves.

"I came out very well tactically," she said afterwards, adding: "I stayed strong in my head, and I'm really happy with the win" (Diário do Tênis). She also admitted that closing it out got harder once she started thinking about what the win meant. That is a very human confession, and a useful one.

Francesca Jones had her own wobble against Maria Florencia Urrutia, edging a tight first set 7-5 before running away with the second 6-1. It is a small detail, but Urrutia beat Souza 6-4 6-4 only recently. Jones's record on clay last year was formidable, and she has collected six titles across 2025 and 2026.

The key, I think, is what Souza does when a chance appears. Against Jones those chances will be rare, and the temptation to think ahead will be stronger than it was against Bonardi. Jones, for her part, has already shown that an untidy start does not stop her from finding her rhythm.

Jones should win, and I would be surprised by anything else. But I do not expect a bagel festival: Souza plays with a clear plan and the crowd behind her. I think she takes enough games to push the match past 16.5, while −7.5 for Jones looks a stretch.

Maria Lourdes Carle — Julia Grabher

Both women have just beaten Brazilians in front of Brazilian crowds, but by very different roads. Maria Lourdes Carle was staring at a lost first set when Laura Pigossi stepped up to serve it out. Carle broke, took over, and never let go, finishing 7-5 6-0.

Julia Grabher had a colder and fiddlier evening, literally. Carolina Meligeni Alves stayed level with her for most of the night, the crowd on the local player's side. Grabher handled the tight end of the first set and then turned the second-set tie-break into a one-sided affair, 7-1.

That ability to own the decisive moments seems to be travelling with her. In winning the Tolentino title she took charge of the opening tie-break of the final and then strung games together. She also won Florianópolis last season, so Brazilian clay holds good memories for her. Her 2025 clay record of 56 wins against 17 losses is the most imposing set of numbers in this match.

Carle's season has been more of a grind, with roughly as many clay losses as wins this year. Both played doubles on Wednesday, against each other, which makes the fatigue question a wash. Grabher's opener may have taken more out of her, but nothing in the reporting proves it.

Grabher is the favourite and, to my eye, rightly so: she is the steadier player in tight passages. Still, Carle's turnaround against Pigossi showed that once she gets rolling, she can be hard to stop. I expect a long, close match, quite possibly going over 20.5 games, with Grabher slightly ahead but no certainty about it.

Riera's starts, Souza's nerves and Grabher's big moments

The day comes down to three questions of character. Can Riera start a match on time, can Souza keep her head clear against a real contender, and can Grabher once again make the tight moments her own? I am most curious about the Souza match, not for the result, but for how a debutant carries her first big week.

The AI cappers have gone through all three matches in detail, and their concrete picks are on the individual match pages. My own impressions stay here, with the caveat every clay court earns: the match will tell.