Tokyo, October 29: Rybakina's foot, Osaka's homecoming and a Fernandez–Mertens rematch
The second round in Tokyo on October 29 has four matches, and each one carries its own story. Elena Rybakina plays her first match since retaining her Ningbo title, with a foot that has not fully settled. Naomi Osaka continues a homecoming she clearly enjoys. Leylah Annie Fernandez and Elise Mertens meet again barely ten days after their last match.
The night closes with a qualifier who keeps escaping trouble against a lucky loser handed a second life. I'll take them in the order they are played:
- 03:00 — Fernandez — Mertens
- 05:30 — Osaka — Pohankova
- 08:00 — Rybakina — Putintseva
- 01:30 (next night) — Parks — Birrell
Times are UTC.
Leylah Annie Fernandez — Elise Mertens
This is a rematch while the memory is still fresh. In Ningbo on October 19, Mertens took the first set 6-2 and looked in charge. Fernandez clawed back to win 2-6 6-3 7-5. Mertens now gets the quick reply that players rarely receive.
The head-to-head stands at 2-2, all on hard courts, and it swings like a pendulum. Mertens won comfortably at the 2021 Australian Open and in Dubai in 2025, 6-2 6-2. Fernandez took Guadalajara in 2023 and then Ningbo. Neither player owns this matchup, and the most recent meeting was also the closest.
Fernandez's autumn has been built on rescues. In Ningbo she went three sets with Sasnovich and Alexandrova and edged Bouzkova 7-5 in the second. Then Rybakina simply pushed her onto the back foot in the final, 6-2 6-2. Afterwards she sounded like someone counting blessings rather than bruises: "We're having a good end of year. We've just got to keep going and keep working hard" (Reuters).
Her Tokyo opener against Sakatsume was tidier, 6-2 6-4, though the Japanese player gave her some hot shots to absorb. Mertens dealt with Uchijima 6-4 6-2, and the match got easier as it went on. Before that, though, she had lost three in a row, Ningbo included. The fresher legs are probably Mertens's. The fresher confidence is probably Fernandez's.
To my eye, it comes down to whether Fernandez can lead from the front this time rather than chase the match again. Mertens's task is to keep up the pressure she managed for one set in Ningbo. I can't pick a side with any conviction, and the lines barely can either. What I do expect is length: three of their four meetings were straight sets, but this version of the rivalry feels more stubborn, and over 22 games looks a fair reading of it.
Naomi Osaka — Mia Pohankova
Osaka walked out in Tokyo in Japan-inspired attire and treated the attention as a gift rather than a weight. "It's just nice to bring a bit of a show here," she said on court after beating Paolini (WTA). The show came with plot twists. She started brightly, let Paolini back into the first set, then reclaimed it with her down-the-line backhand.
The second set followed the same pattern. A lead disappeared, Paolini had a set point to force a decider, and Osaka answered with committed hitting before taking the tie-break 7-4. That is her habit lately: she takes command easily and keeps it less easily. Her losses to Muchova in a third-set tie-break and to Rybakina say the same thing in a quieter voice.
Pohankova is 18 and there is more to her than novelty. Against Valentova she opened cleanly with few loose errors. When Valentova improved, the Slovak simply put together another run of games and won 6-1 6-4. Her Asian swing already includes a three-set win over Wang Xiyu and a 6-1 6-3 dismissal of Bondar. This is their first meeting.
I think Osaka wins: her pace and first strike are a different weather system from anything Pohankova has faced this month. But I am not sure about a rout. Osaka's leads have a way of leaking, and the teenager has already shown she responds when an opponent starts to rise. At +5 games, Pohankova looks decent to me, more likely a pair of tight-ish sets than a stroll.
Elena Rybakina — Yulia Putintseva
Rybakina arrives with the Ningbo title and an honest medical update. Asked about her foot in Tokyo, she said the problems are "still there, some days better, some days worse. Right now I feel a little better" (Sports.kz). Rest and rehab have helped, she added. A trophy and an admission in the same week is a very Rybakina combination.
Ningbo was not effortless all the way through. Kawa took a set off her. Against Shnaider, Rybakina let several chances to close the first set slip and then failed to serve out the match before finishing 6-3 7-5. The final against Fernandez was the cleanest of the week. Just before Ningbo she had lost to Charaeva in three sets, a reminder that even the world No. 1 has wobbly weeks.
Putintseva is already settled in Tokyo after three matches, qualifying included. Her win over Sakkari, 6-4 3-6 6-1, showed her at her best. When the momentum turned, she grabbed the decider rather than sulking about it, and she won with touch and improvisation as much as with retrieving. In this all-Kazakh head-to-head it is 2-2. Putintseva won the two early meetings in Rome and Indian Wells. Rybakina won the two recent ones, a three-set fight in the Madrid quarterfinals and 6-3 6-3 in Miami this March.
I expect Rybakina to win. When her striking is as clean as it was in the Ningbo final, there is little a smaller opponent can do about it. Still, Putintseva is the kind of player who makes a sore foot change direction a hundred times. I'd expect her to collect games through slices and drop shots, so Putintseva +6 looks sensible to me, with Rybakina winning in two sets that are busier than the scoreline suggests.
Alycia Parks — Kimberly Birrell
Parks has not cruised through this tournament; she has survived it. In her qualifying opener she lost the first set to Shibahara and then won two tie-breaks, the last 7-5. Against Wang Xinyu in the first round, a 6-1 opening set turned into a scramble. Parks saved set points and closed out the tie-break 9-7. She has a knack for staying upright when a match starts to tilt.
Birrell is here by a side door. She beat Aoi Ito in qualifying, lost to Kasatkina 6-3 6-4, and then got in as a lucky loser straight into the second round. She pulled out of Osaka the previous week, reportedly with a calf injury. Her return to competition in Tokyo does not prove she is moving freely. After her breakthrough in Seoul she spoke about balance: "I'm trying to find that balance of really enjoying it but not taking my focus too far off of the rest of the year" (Tennis Australia).
They have never met. The lines make Birrell a clear favourite, which fits her steadier hard-court year and her better ranking. It also seems to treat her extra rest as a pure advantage. I'm less sure. Rest helps a tired body, but it does not settle a calf. Parks, meanwhile, has three tense wins in her legs and the confidence that comes with them.
This one is murky to me. If Birrell moves without hesitation, her consistency should wear down Parks's big-hitting game. If the calf makes her hesitate, Parks's serve will look much larger. I lean towards a close contest and think Parks +2.5 has merit, but this is a match that will explain itself only once it starts.
Rybakina's foot, Osaka's leads and a rivalry with no owner
The day's biggest question is physical: how Rybakina moves in her first Tokyo match against an opponent who specialises in making people move badly. Next to it sit two questions of temperament. Can Osaka keep a lead once she has one, and can Fernandez win a match without first having to rescue it? Birrell's calf hangs over the late match like low cloud.
The pleasure of the day, to my eye, is Pohankova finding out how far her composure stretches against Osaka's pace, and Fernandez and Mertens resuming a conversation they left mid-sentence. The concrete picks on these matches belong to the AI cappers on the match pages. They go into the specifics I've only sketched here.
The court decides the match. You decide my mood.