Vienna, October 28: Medvedev, Musetti and Griekspoor carry their titles into the Erste Bank Open

Wednesday in Vienna mixes the start of the tournament with its first real sorting. Three men who lifted trophies on Sunday begin their campaigns in the first round: Daniil Medvedev from Almaty, Lorenzo Musetti from Lyon and Tallon Griekspoor from Brussels. Each arrives with fresh confidence and a body that has not yet had time to forget last week.

The second round adds two contrasting stories. Jakub Mensik eased through his opener, while Alex de Minaur had to dig his way out of a hole. These are the five matches I'll go through, in order of play:

• 12:30 — Daniel Merida Aguilar — Daniil Medvedev
• 12:30 — Tallon Griekspoor — Brandon Nakashima
• 14:00 — Lorenzo Musetti — Frances Tiafoe
• 15:30 — Jakub Mensik — Adrian Mannarino
• 19:00 — Learner Tien — Alex De Minaur

Times are UTC.

Daniel Merida Aguilar — Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev comes to Vienna sounding like a man at peace with his tennis. After Almaty he told the Italian press: "I'm playing well, and I feel good physically" (La Gazzetta dello Sport). He credited the balls on the Asian swing and the altitude in Almaty for part of the lift. That is honest, and it also leaves an open question about how much of it travels to a different hall.

The Almaty final is the detail I keep coming back to. Basilashvili took the opening set in a tie-break and Medvedev was visibly angry with himself. Then he adjusted and won the next two 6-1 6-3. To my eye, that is more valuable than a clean run: he went through a bad patch and found a way out of it.

Merida, 22, is finishing the season in which he established himself on the main tour. He has had big days this year, including a four-set win over Rublev. His last appearance, though, was a loss in Shanghai to Van de Zandschulp after he had won the first set 6-1. Indoors is a blank page for him in the numbers: he has not won an indoor hard match in either 2025 or 2026.

They met at Wimbledon in July. Merida took the first set before Medvedev won in four. Medvedev's Vienna record of 12 wins and 3 losses suggests he knows this hall better than most rooms in his own house.

Tallon Griekspoor — Brandon Nakashima

Griekspoor won Brussels the hard way, losing the first set three matches running against Lehecka, Cerundolo and Struff and turning all three around. Against Cerundolo he went through a deciding-set tie-break. His own summary of the final was frank: "It was a fight, and today it could have gone either way" (Tennis.nl).

So he brings belief rather than fast starts, and a lot of minutes in his legs. His year outdoors has been thin, but indoors it reads 8-2. He seems to come alive once the roof closes, like a plant that only flowers in the greenhouse.

Nakashima has had more time to rest since Lyon. There he started well against Cobolli, serving with real bite, before the Italian slowly took the match away in three sets. It was a competitive loss, not a collapse.

They have met twice. Nakashima won at Roland Garros in 2022, and Griekspoor won right here last October, 7-6(4) 7-6(2). That was two tie-breaks and not a single break of serve decided at the end of a set, which says a lot about how this matchup tends to go indoors.

The market makes Nakashima a clear favourite, and I understand why: he is fresher and higher ranked. I'm less sure. Griekspoor's indoor form and last year's meeting suggest a tight serving contest, and +2.5 games for him looks decent to my eye. The opening exchanges will tell whether he starts cleanly this time or once again has to climb back.

Lorenzo Musetti — Frances Tiafoe

Musetti finally ended his title drought in Lyon, and his words afterwards were vivid: "I felt completely dead, and then somehow my energy came back" (Sky Sport). He thanked the medical team for patching up the soreness before the final. Then he beat Fritz 6-3 6-4 with his backhand redirecting the ball and his defence turning into attack.

That week also included long, swinging battles with Van Assche and Cobolli. How much of it is still in his body on Wednesday, nobody outside his team knows. He is undefeated indoors this year in a small sample of four matches.

Tiafoe has not played since a painful Shanghai loss to Davidovich Fokina that went to a final-set tie-break. He took it out on his racket on court afterwards. That is a mood from two weeks ago, though, and a long break can either rust a player or let him breathe.

They have met seven times. Of the five most recent, Tiafoe won three, including both hard-court meetings in Cincinnati, the latest a 7-6(2) 7-5 quarterfinal win in August. Musetti's wins came on clay. The start time is an estimate, since the match follows another one on court.

This is the most finely balanced storyline of the day: confidence against recovery, rhythm against freshness. I honestly can't call it. If Musetti can hold his court position against Tiafoe's pace the way he did against Fritz, he has the tools. If his legs remember Lyon, Tiafoe's hard-court record against him takes over. I suspect it goes long, and the 22.5 total looks beatable.

Jakub Mensik — Adrian Mannarino

Mensik had the kind of opener a player hopes for. He beat home hope Neumayer 6-2 6-2, imposing his serve early and never letting the Austrian settle into a rally. According to local reports, he called it one of his best matches of the season.

Mannarino, 38, has had a busier week. He came through qualifying and then lost the first set to Buse 0-6 before winning 7-5 6-4. Every time the match tilted against him, he found an answer. His indoor season has been far better than his outdoor one.

The left-hander also beat Mensik at Queen's in June, in two tie-breaks after dropping the first set. Mannarino's flat, low ball and refusal to give pace are a particular kind of irritation for a big hitter. Mensik's record in Vienna is a comfortable one.

Learner Tien — Alex De Minaur

De Minaur's last few weeks have been a story about his body. He retired from the Beijing final against Djokovic with a groin problem and came back from treatment with his thigh strapped. He has played since, and no new complaint has surfaced in Vienna, but nobody has said the problem is fully gone.

His opener against Machac was the most dramatic match of his week. He lost the first set 1-6 as his serve misfired, scraped through a tough hold and slowly turned it around. "I dug deep, found a way to get a crucial break when I needed it, and the momentum changed," he said (ABC). He has already qualified for the Finals, so this is a week to stay sharp rather than to chase anything.

Tien, 20 and left-handed, had a much calmer Monday, beating Van Assche 6-3 6-1. The tournament praises his court awareness and composure. They have never met, which makes the first few games a kind of mutual reconnaissance.

The market sees it as a coin flip, and so do I. Both like long rallies, so the match may come down to who introduces controlled aggression first, not who keeps the ball in play longer. I lean slightly towards a decider and over 22.5 games, while admitting that de Minaur's thigh is the variable I can't see.

Three champions, one bruised Australian and a lot of tired legs

For me, Wednesday is about how well Sunday's winners carry their trophies through the door. Medvedev looks the steadiest of the three. Musetti and Griekspoor both won by surviving, and Vienna will show whether survival can turn into control. In the evening, de Minaur against Tien could be the best tennis of the day.

These are my impressions and my doubts. The AI cappers on the match pages get specific about each of these five, and they are the place to go for the concrete picks.