Eala’s challenge is keeping her serve and decisive returns intact once a match becomes a pressure test. Prozorova and Han Shi both beat her after she had held promising positions; against Prozorova, double faults helped unravel the decider.

Gibson has answered disruption well: she reasserted herself against Sakkari in Singapore, then finished off Kasatkina in Tokyo when the second set tightened. Her first serve can blunt Eala’s aggressive return—the matchup hinge, not just a highlights reel.

3.29 is live for Gibson: the Sakkari win and Singapore final give her recent progress substance, while the Kasatkina win shows she can close when an opener stops being comfortable. That’s enough to back the Australian’s win at this price.

The risk is Eala’s left-handed game: Gibson initially competed with Leylah Fernandez but couldn’t reset after losing control. Eala also served more assertively in Tokyo, so this is a live underdog bet, not a coronation.