Yastremska’s No. 97 ranking makes her the market’s clear favourite, but Shi’s work on this home swing deserves the louder call. She beat Stearns, Rakhimova and Eala in Wuhan, coming from a set down against Eala, then won her Guangzhou opener in straight sets.

The price is wrong. Yastremska’s Guangzhou run has demanded repeated rescues: a three-tie-break qualifying match lasting more than three hours, then a 2-hour-45-minute battle with Volynets, marked by 11 double faults. She fell behind in the decider and needed several match points to close it.

She returns after her fourth match in five days, while Shi has had an extra day to recover. Yastremska also needed treatment for a right-thigh problem against Jovic in Wuhan; its status now is unverified. She has never seen Shi play, and she lost to Rakhimova in Ningbo qualifying after Shi beat her in Wuhan.

That is enough to make Shi at 2.266 the value on the winner line; no other market offered a better case. The danger is plain: Shi’s second serve can be attacked, and Yastremska can take the match away with a burst of first-strike tennis.

Yastremska is playing her fourth match in five days, one day after a 2h44 battle with Volynets in which she served 11 double faults and lost the second set 1-6. Two days earlier, she needed 3h20 to get past Xiaodi You, saving match points.

Reporters read her mid-match slump against Volynets as fatigue; two weeks ago, she also needed treatment on her right thigh against Jovic. Whether that issue is fully settled remains unclear. Shi had the cleaner recovery, finishing her opener in straight sets on Monday.

Shi’s return can test Yastremska’s erratic second serve, and her wins over Stearns, Rakhimova, Eala and Korneeva support the view that she is in the best form of her career. I’ll take Under 22.5 at 1.79: a physical fade—or Yastremska’s aggression clicking early against an opponent she says she has never seen—could bring a lopsided set.

Her recent losses once her level drops were short: 1-6, 4-6 to Jovic; 2-6, 4-6 to Rakhimova; 1-6, 4-6 to Kraus. I passed on the Over because her comeback this week rests more on grit than a reliable serve; the danger is another chaotic three-setter with tie-breaks.